EkstraklasaFull time

Predictions graded

Radomiak Radom0Piast Gliwice2

HT 0–1Mon 14 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 23–14On targetOn target 9–4CornersCorners 14–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 18:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Piast Gliwice hold a slight edge over Radomiak Radom based on recent form, with value on Piast to win (2.70) and Draw or Piast (1.57).

Avoid Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes as the market has overpriced them; instead, consider Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.25 for a positive edge.

Context

Piast Gliwice are 6th in the Ekstraklasa with 10 points from 7 matches.
They beat GKS Katowice 3-0 at home on 2026-09-04 and won 2-0 away at Motor Lublin on 2026-08-29. Those results show a team in good scoring form, but their away record this season is mixed with one win and two losses.
- Piast Gliwice won 3-0 at home against GKS Katowice on 2026-09-04.
- Piast Gliwice won 2-0 away at Motor Lublin on 2026-08-29.
- Piast Gliwice are 6th in the Ekstraklasa with 10 points from 7 matches.
Piast's 3-0 home win over GKS Katowice on 4 September included an opening goal from a transition and a headed goal by Juande Rivas from a corner.
Those recent routes give Radomiak specific defensive situations to manage, particularly transition defence and corner marking. The evidence is limited to one match, but it identifies concrete areas where Piast can threaten.
- Piast defeated GKS Katowice 3-0 in Ekstraklasa on 4 September.
- GKS's match report records Rivas scoring Piast's second goal following a corner.
- GKS coach Rafał Górak said after the match that Piast's first goal came from a transition and the second followed an aerial duel won by a centre-back.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 18:01 · Europe/BucharestGKS Katowice match reportwww.gkskatowice.eu · 4 Sep 2026GieKSa.pl post-match conference reportgieksa.pl · 5 Sep 2026
Radomiak Radom are 12th in the Ekstraklasa with 8 points from 7 matches.
They lost 5-0 away to Legia Warszawa on 2026-08-14 and have conceded 13 goals overall. At home they have been more solid, conceding only 5 goals in 4 matches, so this defensive weakness may be less pronounced in this fixture.
- Radomiak Radom lost 5-0 away to Legia Warszawa on 2026-08-14.
- Radomiak Radom have conceded 13 goals in 7 league matches.
- Radomiak Radom have conceded 5 goals in 4 home matches.
Piast Gliwice beat Radomiak Radom 3-1 at home on 2026-03-20, and Radomiak Radom won 1-0 at home on 2025-09-20. The other three meetings ended in draws or a home win. This pattern suggests home advantage has been significant in this matchup.
- Piast Gliwice won 3-1 at home against Radomiak Radom on 2026-03-20.
- Radomiak Radom won 1-0 at home against Piast Gliwice on 2025-09-20.
- The last five meetings have produced three home wins and two draws.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Piast's superior recent form and better goal difference give them an edge, though Radomiak's home advantage keeps the probability moderate.
- Piast Gliwice have won 3 of their last 5 league matches (WWDLL), while Radomiak have won only 2 of their last 5 (DWDLL).
- Piast average 1.5 goals scored per match versus Radomiak's 1.1, and concede 1.6 versus Radomiak's 1.9.
- Piast's away record is 1W-0D-2L, but Radomiak's home record is 2W-1D-1L, showing some home resilience.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPiast GliwiceEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Piast's stronger form and recent H2H dominance make them unlikely to lose, supporting a double chance for Piast or draw.
- Radomiak have lost 3 of their last 5 league matches, while Piast have lost only 2.
- Piast have avoided defeat in 4 of their last 5 league matches (WWDLL).
- H2H: Piast are unbeaten in the last 3 meetings (2W, 1D).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Piast GliwiceEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of drawing at halftime, making a first-half draw the most likely single outcome.
- Radomiak led at halftime in 33% of matches, trailed in 20%, and drew in 47%.
- Piast led at halftime in 29%, trailed in 36%, and drew in 35%.
- H2H: 2 of the last 5 meetings were level at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Piast's stronger squad and better recent performance give them a slight edge to win the second half.
- Piast have scored more second-half goals than Radomiak in recent matches.
- Piast's superior overall form suggests they may edge the second half.
- Radomiak have conceded late goals in several matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonPiast GliwiceEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Piast win is a plausible sequence given both teams' halftime patterns and Piast's second-half strength.
- Radomiak often draw at halftime (47% of matches).
- Piast have won 3 of their last 5 matches, often after a level first half.
- H2H: Piast won the last meeting after a draw at halftime.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/Piast GliwiceEstimated chance22%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high combined goal averages and recent H2H matches have been relatively high-scoring, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- Radomiak's matches average 3.0 total goals (1.1 scored + 1.9 conceded).
- Piast's matches average 3.1 total goals (1.5 scored + 1.6 conceded).
- H2H: 3 of the last 5 meetings had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show consistent scoring and conceding patterns, indicating a high likelihood of both teams finding the net.
- Radomiak have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Piast have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Both teams have conceded in most recent matches: Radomiak conceded in 4 of 5, Piast in 4 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a decent rate of first-half goals, making it likely that at least one goal is scored before halftime.
- Radomiak average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Piast average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.15 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be more active in the second half, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Radomiak's second-half goal involvement is high: total goals minus first-half goals averages 1.8 per match.
- Piast's second-half goal involvement averages 2.0 per match.
- Recent matches show late goals: Radomiak's last 5 league matches had 9 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate and concede a high number of corners, making over 9.5 total corners likely.
- Radomiak average 5.1 corners per match and concede 5.1 opponent corners.
- Piast average 5.8 corners per match and concede 5.8 opponent corners.
- Combined average corners per match is 10.9.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is just above the line, making over 8.5 a near coin-flip.
- Radomiak average 3.4 shots on target per match and concede 3.4 opponent shots on target.
- Piast average 5.2 shots on target per match and concede 5.2 opponent shots on target.
- Combined average shots on target is 8.6 per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate card averages, and the competitive nature of the match could push total cards over 4.5.
- Radomiak average 2.3 yellow cards per match and their opponents average 2.3.
- Piast average 1.9 yellow cards per match and their opponents average 1.9.
- Combined average cards per match is 4.2, but recent matches have seen higher totals.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 44% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of 33%; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

L3-1Piast GliwicevRadomiak RadomMar 20, 2026EKS

W1-0Radomiak RadomvPiast GliwiceSep 20, 2025EKS

D0-0Piast GliwicevRadomiak RadomMay 4, 2025EKS

D1-1Radomiak RadomvPiast GliwiceNov 3, 2024EKS

W2-3Piast GliwicevRadomiak RadomMar 8, 2024EKS

Radomiak Radom: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Ekstraklasa 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Radomiak Radom	7	2	2	3	6-13	8	DWDLL
6	Piast Gliwice	7	3	1	3	13-13	10	WWDLL

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Radomiak Radom

D0-0Widzew ŁódźSep 5EKS

W1-0Korona Kielce IISep 1CUP

W2-1Cracovia KrakowAug 29EKS

D0-0Zaglebie LubinAug 23EKS

L0-5Legia WarszawaAug 14EKS

D1-1AELAug 9FRI

L1-3Gornik ZabrzeAug 8EKS

L1-3GKS KatowiceAug 2EKS

L2-3Nea SalamisJul 25FRI

W2-1Wieczysta KrakówJul 24EKS

L1-2Pogoń SiedlceJul 18FRI

W2-1Legia Warszawa IIJul 17FRI

L1-3Legia WarszawaJul 14FRI

L2-4Dynamo KyivJul 10FRI

L1-2ŁKS ŁódźJul 4FRI

Piast Gliwice

W3-0GKS KatowiceSep 4EKS

W3-0Chemik BydgoszczSep 1CUP

W2-0Motor LublinAug 29EKS

D1-1Legia WarszawaAug 22EKS

L3-4Wieczysta KrakówAug 15EKS

L0-3Lech PoznanAug 9EKS

W4-3Wisla KrakowAug 1EKS

L0-2Zaglebie LubinJul 27EKS

L0-2Odra OpoleJul 18FRI

D2-2Miedz LegnicaJul 8FRI

W1-0Baník OstravaJul 4FRI

W1-0GKS KatowiceJul 1FRI

L0-2Raków CzęstochowaJun 27FRI

L1-2Widzew ŁódźMay 23EKS

L1-3Raków CzęstochowaMay 17EKS

Squad & Injuries

Radomiak Radom

31 available

Attackers8

Midfielders11

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Piast Gliwice

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Piast Gliwice

Draw or Piast Gliwice

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Radomiak Radom

Piast Gliwice

Squad & Injuries

Radomiak Radom

Piast Gliwice