EkstraklasaFull time

Predictions graded

Lech Poznan5Radomiak Radom1

HT 3–1Sun 20 Sept 2026, 18:15 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 26–12On targetOn target 9–5CornersCorners 10–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Sep 2026, 00:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Lech Poznan are strong home favourites — unbeaten at home in the league (3W-1D-0L, one goal conceded) against a Radomiak side with one point from three away games — but the 1.29 win price and 1.07 double chance already reflect that edge and offer no value.

The standout play is BTTS No at 2.15, where our 58% estimate sits well above the 46.5% implied, supported by Lech's home defensive record and Radomiak's single away goal this season; note the confirmed three-day turnaround from Lech's Europa League trip to Crystal Palace as a rotation risk.

Context

Radomiak Radom sit 14th in the Ekstraklasa table with 8 points from 8 games, three points above the relegation line. Their away form is the clear weak point of that record.
In three away league games Radomiak have drawn one and lost two, scoring one goal and conceding eight. That is a small sample, but it points to a side that struggles to create and defend on the road. Lech Poznan have won three and drawn one at home, conceding just one goal in four home league games, so the away side's task is to avoid the slow start that has hurt them. The limit is that three matches is a short sample and away performances can change quickly.
- Radomiak away league record in 2026-27: 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats, 1 goal scored, 8 conceded.
- Their only away point came in a 0-0 draw at Widzew Łódź on 2026-09-05.
- They lost 5-0 at Legia Warszawa on 2026-08-14 and 3-1 at GKS Katowice on 2026-08-02.
Lech Poznan are third in the Ekstraklasa with 16 points from 7 games, five points behind leaders Gornik Zabrze. Their home form is a central part of that position.
At home Lech have taken 10 points from 12, scoring six and conceding one. Their most recent home league game was a 1-0 win over Raków Częstochowa on 2026-09-06, and they also beat Jagiellonia 2-1 on 2026-09-03 and Piast Gliwice 3-0 on 2026-08-09. The one home draw was 0-0 with Cracovia Krakow on 2026-07-25, so they are not automatic scorers every week. The limit is that home form covers only four matches and one of those was a goalless draw.
- Lech Poznan home league record in 2026-27: 3 wins, 1 draw, 0 defeats, 6 goals scored, 1 conceded.
- Home league results include a 3-0 win over Piast Gliwice on 2026-08-09 and a 1-0 win over Raków Częstochowa on 2026-09-06.
- Their only home draw was 0-0 against Cracovia Krakow on 2026-07-25.
Radomiak Radom are 14th in the Ekstraklasa with 8 points from 8 games and a goal difference of minus nine.
Their recent league form reads L-D-W-D-L, with the two wins coming at home against Cracovia Krakow on 2026-08-29 and Wieczysta Kraków on 2026-07-24. Away from home they have not won in the league this season. The 5-0 defeat at Legia Warszawa on 2026-08-14 and the 3-1 loss at GKS Katowice on 2026-08-02 show how quickly games can get away from them on the road. The limit is that they did beat Cracovia 2-0 at home recently, so they are not without results.
- Radomiak's last five league results: L, D, W, D, L.
- They lost 2-0 at home to Piast Gliwice on 2026-09-14 and 5-0 at Legia Warszawa on 2026-08-14.
- They have scored six goals in eight league games and conceded fifteen.
Lech Poznan named a starting XI for their Europa League league-phase match at Crystal Palace in London on 17 September, and their next fixture is the home game against Radomiak on Sunday 20 September.
That leaves roughly three days between the London match and this fixture, so recovery time and any late rotation decisions are relevant to how Lech line up. The compressed window is a counterweight to their home advantage, though the claim does not establish which players, if any, will be rested.
- Lech named a starting XI for the Europa League league-phase match at Crystal Palace in London on 17 September.
- The same official club page listed Lech’s next match as a home game against Radomiak on Sunday 20 September at 20:15.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Sep 2026, 00:44 · Europe/BucharestLech Poznań: squad for Crystal Palacewww.lechpoznan.pl · 17 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Lech Poznan

1.29fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

The market has already priced Lech's structural home/away edge almost fully, so the 1.29 quote offers no cushion versus a 72% estimate that is itself shaded down by the midweek European load.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Lech Poznan or Draw

1.07fair 1.16

BetBugs 86% · Market 93.5%

−7.5ppshort

Lech's home unbeaten record and Radomiak's one-point-from-three away return justify the safe side, but at 1.07 the price is far shorter than the 86% estimate and carries no value.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Lech Poznan

1.60fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Lech lead at half-time in only 47% of recent matches, so the 1.60 quote overstates a first-half edge that the compressed European turnaround further dilutes.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Lech Poznan at half-time / Lech Poznan at full-time

1.73fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 57.8%

−15.8ppshort

The 1.73 price implies Lech lead at the break and win 58% of the time, but their 47% half-time lead rate caps the realistic home/home probability well below that.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.30fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Radomiak's leaky defence and the H2H pattern of 3-5 goals per meeting support goals, but the price already bakes in the over.

Total Goals HomewonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 1.5

1.25fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 80%

−18.0ppshort

Lech's overall 2.5 goals/game and Radomiak's 8 conceded in 3 away games support two-plus goals, but the price is far too short.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge plus a large quality gap in the table and H2H psychology point to a Lech win, though the compressed post-London turnaround is a mild counterweight.
- Lech are 3rd with 16 pts from 7 (5W-1D-1L), home record 3W-1D-0L with 6 scored and only 1 conceded in 4 home league games.
- Radomiak are 14th with 8 pts, and away they are 0W-1D-2L with 1 goal scored and 8 conceded in 3 away league games.
- Lech average 2.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over the last 15 matches, with 17.7 shots and 6.5 on target per game.
- H2H last 5: Lech won 3-1 away in May 2026 and 4-1 at home in Nov 2025; Radomiak have not beaten Lech in that span.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLech PoznanEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lech's home solidity and Radomiak's weak away output make the home-or-draw combination the safest result-family play, supported by the structural venue edge.
- Lech are unbeaten at home in the league this season (3W-1D-0L, 6 goals for, 1 against).
- Radomiak have taken only 1 point from 3 away league games, scoring once and conceding eight.
- Lech's last 5 league form reads L-W-W-W-W with 12 goals scored across those matches.
- Radomiak's away form string is L-D-L with heavy defeats at Legia (0-5) and GKS Katowice (1-3).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLech Poznan or DrawEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lech's habit of fast starts and Radomiak's early-game vulnerability under a brand-new coach favour a home half-time lead.
- Lech led at half-time in 47% of their last 15 matches and scored 1.2 first-half goals per game.
- Radomiak trailed at half-time in 20% of matches and conceded 0.7 first-half goals per game.
- In the Nov 2025 H2H, Lech led 4-1 at home with early dominance.
- Radomiak's new coach Rafał Grzyb is only in his second match, with limited time to reshape the side.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonLech PoznanEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lech's superior depth and fitness profile against a Radomiak side that fades away from home supports a home second-half win, tempered by the midweek European load.
- Lech's last 5 league matches show strong second-half control, including a 3-2 win at Widzew with late goals.
- Radomiak have conceded 15 league goals in 8 games, with a high share after half-time.
- Lech average 2.5 goals per match overall, indicating sustained scoring across both halves.
- Radomiak's away record shows 8 goals conceded in 3 games, suggesting second-half collapses.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonLech PoznanEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lech's tendency to lead at the break combined with their strong home conversion rate makes the home/home double the most plausible HT-FT outcome.
- Lech led at half-time in 47% of recent matches and won the majority of those games.
- Lech's home league record is 3W-1D-0L with only 1 goal conceded.
- Radomiak have lost 4 of 8 league games and 2 of 3 away games.
- Lech's last 5 form is L-W-W-W-W, showing they convert leads into wins.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonLech Poznan / Lech PoznanEstimated chance42%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Radomiak's leaky defence and the consistently high-scoring H2H pattern favour overs, but Lech's tight home record keeps this at medium confidence.
- Lech average 2.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match over the last 15, with 1.2 first-half goals per game.
- Radomiak average 1.1 scored and 1.9 conceded over the last 15, with 15 goals conceded in 8 league games.
- H2H last 5 produced 3, 5, 4, 3 and 4 goals — every meeting cleared 2.5.
- Lech's home league games have been lower-scoring (6 for, 1 against in 4), which caps the ceiling.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lech's home defensive record and Radomiak's blunt away attack make a clean sheet for the hosts more likely than not, though Radomiak's shot volume (15 per game) is a risk.
- Lech have conceded only 1 goal in 4 home league games this season.
- Radomiak have scored just 1 goal in 3 away league games and average 4.1 shots on target per match.
- Radomiak failed to score in 3 of their last 6 competitive matches, including the 0-2 home loss to Piast.
- Lech kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 home league fixtures.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lech's strong first-half scoring rate against a Radomiak side that has shipped early goals away from home supports an over 1.5 first-half line.
- Lech average 1.2 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded over the last 15 matches.
- Lech led at half-time in 47% of recent matches and Radomiak trailed at half-time in 20%.
- Radomiak conceded 4 first-half goals in the 0-5 loss at Legia and 2 in the 1-3 loss at GKS Katowice.
- H2H meetings have regularly produced early goals, with Lech scoring first-half goals in recent wins.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lech's home defensive solidity against Radomiak's poor away scoring output makes a home clean sheet a reasonable play.
- Lech have conceded only 1 goal in 4 home league games this season.
- Radomiak have scored 1 goal in 3 away league games.
- Radomiak average 4.1 shots on target per match, limiting their scoring threat.
- Lech kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 home league matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostRadomiak Radom not to scoreEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lech's scoring rate against a Radomiak defence conceding heavily on the road supports the hosts scoring at least twice.
- Lech average 2.5 goals scored per match over the last 15.
- Lech scored 4, 3 and 2 goals in recent home matches across competitions.
- Radomiak have conceded 8 goals in 3 away league games.
- Lech's home league record shows 6 goals in 4 games, a 1.5 per-game rate.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonLech Poznan over 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win to nil is plausible given Lech's defensive record and Radomiak's away scoring struggles, but the midweek European load adds uncertainty.
- Lech have conceded 1 goal in 4 home league games and kept 3 clean sheets.
- Radomiak have scored 1 goal in 3 away league games.
- Lech won 1-0 at home against Raków and 3-0 against Piast recently.
- Radomiak's away scoring rate is 0.33 goals per game.
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostYesEstimated chance38%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate healthy corner volume, and Lech's territorial home dominance should push the combined count above 8.5.
- Lech average 5.9 corners per match over the last 15, with 8 and 9 in recent home games.
- Radomiak average 6.3 corners per match, including 14 and 10 in recent matches.
- Combined recent corner averages exceed 12 per match when both sides' data is aggregated.
- Lech's home games against Raków and Jagiellonia produced 8 and 5 corners respectively, with opponents adding 2 each.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lech's high shot-on-target volume plus Radomiak's willingness to shoot (15 shots per game) supports an over 8.5 combined line.
- Lech average 6.5 shots on target per match over the last 15.
- Radomiak average 4.1 shots on target per match, with 9 and 5 in recent league games.
- Combined recent shots-on-target averages exceed 10 per match.
- Lech's home games have seen them register 6-9 shots on target regularly.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Radomiak's high foul and card rates combined with a competitive H2H make over 3.5 cards plausible, though referee variance keeps confidence low.
- Radomiak average 13.6 fouls and 2.1 yellow cards per match over the last 15.
- Lech average 11.5 fouls and 1.6 yellow cards per match.
- Recent Radomiak matches produced 4 and 5 yellow cards in defeats to Gornik and GKS Katowice.
- H2H meetings have been competitive, with cards shown in both recent fixtures.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%