EkstraklasaFull time

Predictions graded

Pogon Szczecin1Wisla Plock1

HT 0–0Mon 7 Sept 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 22–13On targetOn target 4–8CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 17:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Pogon Szczecin are favored at home against a Wisla Plock side struggling on the road, but the betting edge on the home win is thin.

The best value lies in over 2.5 goals, while the first-half over 0.5 and BTTS markets are overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Wisla Plock are 16th in the Ekstraklasa with four points from five matches, sitting in the relegation zone.
Their away record shows one win and two losses, with eight goals conceded in three games. The 5-0 defeat at GKS Katowice on 23 August 2026 highlights their defensive struggles on the road. Pogon Szczecin have won one and drawn one of their three home matches, so Wisla Plock will need a much stronger defensive performance to get a result.
- Wisla Plock's away record: 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses in 3 matches, with 3 goals scored and 8 conceded.
- Lost 5-0 at GKS Katowice on 23 August 2026.
- Lost 2-1 at Wisla Krakow on 7 August 2026.
The teams last met on 3 May 2026 in the Ekstraklasa.
Pogon Szczecin won that match 3-0 at home, and they also won 2-0 at Wisla Plock in November 2025. Wisla Plock's only recent win in this fixture came in February 2023. This pattern suggests Pogon Szczecin have had the upper hand in recent meetings.
- Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Wisla Plock on 3 May 2026.
- Wisla Plock 0-2 Pogon Szczecin on 3 November 2025.
- Wisla Plock 1-0 Pogon Szczecin on 26 February 2023.
Pogoń Szczecin attacker Filip Čuić was sent off in the 23rd minute at Zagłębie Lubin on 29 August and is reported to miss at least two league matches. He started 2 of the last 5 fixtures with available lineups, while M. Juwara started in the same position in 3 of those matches.
Pogoń must replace Čuić in their matchday selection for this fixture. The reporting indicates a suspension of at least two league matches, so his absence is expected. Juwara has been the most frequent starter in that role when Čuić did not start, suggesting a likely direct replacement, though the team may adjust differently.
- Pogoń played more than an hour with ten men after Filip Čuić received a direct red card in the 23rd minute at Zagłębie Lubin on 29 August.
- A 31 August disciplinary report listed Čuić as suspended for the seventh league round and stated that he would miss at least two league matches.
- F. Cuic started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 180 minutes across 5 appearances.
- M. Juwara started in the same position in 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when F. Cuic did not start.
ReportedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 17:34 · Europe/BucharestPogoń SportNet: point earned after more than an hour with ten menowa.pogonsportnet.pl · 29 Aug 2026WP SportoweFakty: Pogoń player suspendedsportowefakty.wp.pl · 31 Aug 2026
Wisla Plock are currently in the relegation zone, level on points with the team above them but with a worse goal difference.
They have only one win in five league matches and have conceded ten goals. Pogon Szczecin are seventh with eight points, so Wisla Plock face a tough task to get a positive result. The pressure to avoid relegation could affect their approach, but they have not shown consistent form this season.
- Wisla Plock rank 16th with 4 points from 5 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses).
- They have a goal difference of -7.
- Pogon Szczecin rank 7th with 8 points from 5 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Pogon Szczecin or Draw

1.25fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Pogon have lost only 1 of their last 5 league matches and Wisla have lost 3 of their last 4, making the double chance a strong safety net even at fair odds.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pogon's superior home form and dominant recent H2H, combined with Wisla's poor away defensive record, make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Pogon Szczecin home record this season: 1W-1D-1L, 5 goals for, 4 against.
- Wisla Plock away record this season: 1W-0D-2L, 3 goals for, 8 against.
- H2H last 5: Pogon won 3, Wisla won 1, draw 1; Pogon won last meeting 3-0 at home.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPogon SzczecinEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Wisla's poor away form and Pogon's solid home resilience, the double chance of Pogon or draw is strongly supported.
- Pogon Szczecin have lost only 1 of their last 5 league matches.
- Wisla Plock have lost 3 of their last 4 league matches.
- Wisla Plock away record: 1W-0D-2L, with 8 goals conceded in 3 away games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonPogon Szczecin or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Pogon's slight first-half edge and Wisla's tendency to trail early support a home lead at the break, but the margin is narrow.
- Pogon Szczecin led at halftime in 33% of recent matches.
- Wisla Plock trailed at halftime in 40% of recent matches.
- Pogon's home first-half record: 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostPogon SzczecinEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win from start to finish is possible but not strongly supported by recent first-half performances.
- Pogon Szczecin have won 2 of their last 5 league matches.
- Wisla Plock have lost 3 of their last 4 league matches.
- Pogon won the last H2H 3-0, with a 0-0 halftime score.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostPogon Szczecin / Pogon SzczecinEstimated chance35%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have trended towards higher scoring, especially Wisla's leaky away defense, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Pogon Szczecin home matches average 3.0 total goals (5 scored, 4 conceded in 3 games).
- Wisla Plock away matches average 3.67 total goals (3 scored, 8 conceded in 3 games).
- Last H2H meeting ended 3-0 to Pogon.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score, and Wisla's defensive vulnerabilities away from home increase the likelihood of both teams finding the net.
- Pogon Szczecin have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Wisla Plock have scored in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Pogon home games: both teams scored in 2 of 3 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H and both teams' first-half scoring records suggest a goal before halftime is likely.
- Pogon Szczecin average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded in recent matches.
- Wisla Plock average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- In last 5 H2H meetings, at least one first-half goal was scored in 4 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is plausible given both teams' patterns, but confidence is low due to limited specific second-half data.
- Pogon Szczecin average 1.3 goals per match overall, with many coming in second halves.
- Wisla Plock concede an average of 1.6 goals per match, often late.
- Last H2H: Pogon scored all 3 goals in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wisla's high corner count and Pogon's tendency to concede corners suggest a high total corner count.
- Pogon Szczecin average 3.1 corners per match, but opponent corners average 4.5.
- Wisla Plock average 7.6 corners per match, with opponents averaging 4.0.
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams: approximately 10.6.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average is near the line, making this a coin-flip with slight lean over due to attacking intent.
- Pogon Szczecin average 4.3 shots on target per match.
- Wisla Plock average 3.6 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target: 7.9, close to the line.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' disciplinary records suggest a moderately high card count, with the line set just below the combined average.
- Pogon Szczecin average 1.9 yellow cards per match, opponents average 2.0.
- Wisla Plock average 2.0 yellow cards per match, opponents average 1.6.
- Combined average cards per match: approximately 3.9.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 28.6% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of 25%; the price already reflects Wisla's poor away form and offers no value.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W3-0Pogon SzczecinvWisla PlockMay 3, 2026EKS

L2-0Wisla PlockvPogon SzczecinNov 3, 2025EKS

W0-1Wisla PlockvPogon SzczecinFeb 26, 2023EKS

D2-2Pogon SzczecinvWisla PlockAug 13, 2022EKS

L1-2Pogon SzczecinvWisla PlockApr 8, 2022EKS

Pogon Szczecin: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Ekstraklasa 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Pogon Szczecin	5	2	2	1	7-4	8	DDWWL
16	Wisla Plock Relegation	5	1	1	3	3-10	4	LLLDW

4pt gap between teamsWisla Plock in relegation zone

Recent Form

Pogon Szczecin

D0-0Zaglebie LubinAug 29EKS

D2-2Wisla KrakowAug 23EKS

W3-1Motor LublinAug 8EKS

W2-0Cracovia KrakowAug 3EKS

L0-1Legia WarszawaJul 24EKS

L0-1Sturm GrazJul 15FRI

L0-4FenerbahçeJul 11FRI

W2-1Chrobry GłogówJul 8FRI

L0-2Zaglebie LubinJul 4FRI

W3-0BFC DynamoJun 27FRI

D1-1GKS KatowiceMay 23EKS

W1-0Zaglebie LubinMay 15EKS

L2-3JagielloniaMay 9EKS

W3-0Wisla PlockMay 3EKS

D1-1Cracovia KrakowApr 25EKS

Wisla Plock

L0-2Korona KielceAug 28EKS

L0-5GKS KatowiceAug 23EKS

L1-2Wisla KrakowAug 7EKS

D0-0Widzew ŁódźJul 31EKS

W2-1Raków CzęstochowaJul 26EKS

W3-0ŁKS ŁódźJul 17FRI

W2-0Bohemians 1905Jul 14FRI

D2-2Baník OstravaJul 11FRI

W3-0Polonia WarszawaJul 4FRI

W2-1Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiJun 27FRI

D2-2Lech PoznanMay 23EKS

L0-1Gornik ZabrzeMay 16EKS

L0-4Motor LublinMay 10EKS

L0-3Pogon SzczecinMay 3EKS

L0-1Radomiak RadomApr 26EKS

Squad & Injuries

Pogon Szczecin

29 available

Attackers4

Midfielders13

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Wisla Plock

33 available

Attackers8

Midfielders13

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Pogon Szczecin

Over 2.5

Pogon Szczecin or Draw

Over 0.5

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Wisla Plock

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Pogon Szczecin

Wisla Plock

Squad & Injuries

Pogon Szczecin

Wisla Plock