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Predictions graded

Radomiak Radom1Gornik Zabrze3

HT 0–2Sat 8 Aug 2026, 12:45 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 14–20On targetOn target 5–6CornersCorners 2–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Aug 2026, 12:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Over 2.5 goals (1.78) and Both Teams to Score (1.67) given the goal-heavy H2H and Radomiak’s leaky defense.

Górnik’s midweek European trip and short turnaround make Radomiak or Draw (1.57) a strong value play, while fading Górnik’s outright win is advised due to fatigue and rotation risk.

Context

Górnik's Champions League qualifier in Budapest is on 5 August, just three days before this league match.
- The team must travel back from Hungary and then to Radom, with less than 72 hours between kickoffs.
- Manager Michal Gašparík is expected to rotate the squad to manage fatigue, weakening their typical starting XI.
Szcześniak made 90 appearances for Górnik before his loan to Radomiak on 18 July 2026.
- He is familiar with Górnik's attacking patterns and set-piece routines.
- Radomiak conceded 2.2 goals per game over their last 15 matches, so his addition addresses a clear weakness.
Radomiak's last four home league results: 2-1 vs Wieczysta Kraków, 3-1 vs Lechia Gdansk, 2-1 vs Widzew Łódź, 4-0 vs Górnik Zabrze.
- They scored at least two goals in each of those four home matches.
- Górnik have won only two of their last five competitive away matches.
Last five H2H results: 6-2, 4-0, 3-2, 1-2, 1-1.
- Both teams scored in four of those five matches.
- The 6-2 win for Górnik in May 2026 came under very different circumstances, with no travel fatigue.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gornik's short turnaround and travel fatigue significantly weaken them, while Radomiak's strong home record against Gornik and recent home form give them a slight edge.
- Radomiak home form: won last 3 home league matches (including 4-0 vs Gornik in Nov 2025).
- Gornik away form: no away league matches this season; last 5 competitive away: W2 D1 L2.
- Gornik fatigue: midweek away trip to Budapest (Wed) before Saturday 12:45 kickoff, likely rotation.
- Radomiak added ex-Gornik defender Szcześniak, boosting defensive organization.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRadomiak RadomEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Radomiak's home resilience and Gornik's compromised preparation make a home win or draw highly probable.
- Radomiak home: unbeaten in last 4 home league matches (W3 D1).
- Gornik away: only 2 wins in last 5 competitive away matches.
- H2H at Radomiak: Radomiak won 2 of last 3 home meetings (4-0, 1-2, 1-1).
- Gornik fatigue: significant travel and short rest period.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostRadomiak Radom or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Radomiak's home energy and Gornik's travel fatigue could lead to an early home advantage, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- Radomiak home: led at halftime in 2 of last 4 home league matches.
- Gornik away: trailed at halftime in 2 of last 5 competitive away matches.
- H2H at Radomiak: Radomiak led at halftime in 1 of last 3 home meetings (4-0 win).
- Gornik fatigue may cause slow start.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostRadomiak RadomEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by Radomiak capitalizing on Gornik's fatigue is plausible but lacks strong statistical backing.
- Radomiak home: 1 of last 4 home league matches was draw at HT and win at FT.
- Gornik away: 1 of last 5 competitive away matches was draw at HT and loss at FT.
- H2H: no direct precedent for this exact HT/FT combo in last 5 meetings.
- Gornik fatigue may lead to a stronger second half for Radomiak.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Radomiak RadomEstimated chance22%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
H2H history is strongly goal-heavy, and Radomiak's defense is leaky (2.2 conceded per game), while Gornik's fatigue from midweek European travel may lead to defensive lapses, making Over 2.5 highly likely.
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 produced Over 2.5 goals (6-2, 4-0, 3-2, 1-2, 1-1).
- Radomiak last 15: 1.5 goals scored, 2.2 conceded per game; 73% of matches had Over 2.5.
- Gornik last 15: 1.5 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game; but 4 of last 5 competitive matches had Over 2.5.
- Radomiak home league matches this season: 2-1 win; Gornik away: no data, but overall high-scoring trend.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently find the net in this fixture, and Radomiak's defensive frailties combined with Gornik's attacking quality (even with rotation) make BTTS a strong pick.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 of 5 meetings.
- Radomiak last 15: scored in 80% of matches, conceded in 87%.
- Gornik last 15: scored in 73% of matches, conceded in 60%.
- Radomiak home this season: scored 2; Gornik away: no data, but scored in 4 of last 5 competitive away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
While not overwhelming, the H2H tendency for early goals and Radomiak's defensive vulnerability suggest a decent chance of a lively first half.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 had Over 1.5 first-half goals (6-2 had 5, 3-2 had 2, 1-2 had 1).
- Radomiak last 15: 0.7 first-half goals scored, 0.9 conceded; 40% of matches had Over 1.5 FH goals.
- Gornik last 15: 0.8 first-half goals scored, 0.3 conceded; but 33% of matches had Over 1.5 FH goals.
- Gornik's last competitive match (vs Slask) had 1 FH goal; Radomiak's last league match (vs GKS Katowice) had 1 FH goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in this fixture tend to be open, and Gornik's tired legs could lead to more goals after the break.
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 had Over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Radomiak last 15: concede 1.3 goals per second half on average.
- Gornik last 15: score 0.7 goals per second half, but fatigue may increase defensive errors late.
- Radomiak home: 2 of last 3 home league matches had Over 1.5 SH goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate corners at a high rate, especially Gornik, and the open nature of the game should push the total over 9.5.
- Radomiak last 15: average 4.4 corners for, opponent corners 5.3; total average 9.7.
- Gornik last 15: average 6.9 corners for, opponent corners 5.1; total average 12.0.
- H2H last meeting: total corners 10 (Gornik 6, Radomiak 4).
- Gornik's last 5 competitive matches: total corners averaged 11.4.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Radomiak's high card count and the competitive nature of the fixture suggest a card-heavy match, though Gornik's discipline tempers the expectation.
- Radomiak last 15: average 3.3 yellow cards, 0.7 red cards per game.
- Gornik last 15: average 1.7 yellow cards, 0 red cards per game.
- H2H last meeting: total cards 5 (Gornik 0, Radomiak 5).
- Radomiak's last 5 league matches: total cards averaged 5.6.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 27.8% leaves no cushion vs our 35% estimate; vig too heavy for a directional Yes play.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L6-2Gornik ZabrzevRadomiak RadomMay 23, 2026EKS

W4-0Radomiak RadomvGornik ZabrzeNov 28, 2025EKS

L3-2Gornik ZabrzevRadomiak RadomFeb 15, 2025EKS

W0-1Gornik ZabrzevRadomiak RadomSep 25, 2024CUP

L1-2Radomiak RadomvGornik ZabrzeAug 9, 2024EKS

Radomiak Radom: 2 clean sheets4.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Ekstraklasa 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	Radomiak Radom	2	1	0	1	3-4	3	LW
6	Gornik Zabrze	1	1	0	0	2-1	3	W

Recent Form

Radomiak Radom

L1-3GKS KatowiceAug 2EKS

L2-3Nea SalamisJul 25FRI

W2-1Wieczysta KrakówJul 24EKS

L1-2Pogoń SiedlceJul 18FRI

W2-1Legia Warszawa IIJul 17FRI

L1-3Legia WarszawaJul 14FRI

L2-4Dynamo KyivJul 10FRI

L1-2ŁKS ŁódźJul 4FRI

L2-3Hapoel Beer ShevaJul 1FRI

L2-6Gornik ZabrzeMay 23EKS

L1-3Lech PoznanMay 16EKS

D0-0Cracovia KrakowMay 11EKS

W3-1Lechia GdanskMay 4EKS

W1-0Wisla PlockApr 26EKS

W2-1Widzew ŁódźApr 18EKS

Gornik Zabrze

D1-1FenerbahçeJul 29UEF

W2-1Slask WroclawJul 25EKS

L0-1FenerbahçeJul 21UEF

L1-3Lech PoznanJul 16SUP

W2-0FC NordsjaellandJul 10FRI

D0-0WSG WattensJul 4FRI

L1-2Red Bull SalzburgJul 4FRI

W2-1Hallescher FCJun 28FRI

W3-0Puszcza NiepołomiceJun 24FRI

W6-2Radomiak RadomMay 23EKS

W1-0Wisla PlockMay 16EKS

D0-0Arka GdyniaMay 13EKS

L0-2Zaglebie LubinMay 9EKS

W2-0Raków CzęstochowaMay 2CUP

W2-1JagielloniaApr 24EKS

Squad & Injuries

Radomiak Radom

30 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Gornik Zabrze

29 available

Attackers4

Midfielders13

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 1.5

Radomiak Radom or Draw

Over 4.5

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Gornik Zabrze

Gornik Zabrze, draw no bet

Over 9.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Radomiak Radom

Gornik Zabrze

Squad & Injuries

Radomiak Radom

Gornik Zabrze