Celta Vigo2Alaves1

HT 0–0Sun 18 Oct 2026, 14:15 Predictions graded

Predictions7–847%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 6–20On targetOn target 3–9CornersCorners 0–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 07:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Celta play Juventus on Thursday and host Alavés three days later.

Alavés have not won in four league games and both sides defend better than they score, so a tight, low-scoring match leaning towards a draw or a narrow away result is the sensible read. A draw or an Alavés win at 1.8 and not both teams scoring at 1.83 are the prices that hold up; the 1.95 on a Celta win and Under 2.5 at 1.7 do not.

Context

Celta's Europa League home game against Juventus on Thursday 15 October sits just three days before this La Liga kick-off, so Alavés will have had a full week to prepare while Celta play a high-profile European night at Balaídos. Giráldez said after the Elche draw that his team would 'cambiar el chip' for Juventus and only afterwards turn to Alavés and 'sumar de 3 en casa'. That makes managed minutes or rotation plausible, especially with Aspas and other regulars just back from fitness issues. Celta have handled their European weeks so far, so the fatigue effect is a risk to weigh rather than a certainty.
- Celta host Juventus in the Europa League at Balaídos on Thursday 15 October 2026, three days before the Alavés fixture.
- After the 0-0 at Elche, Giráldez said the team would 'cambiar el chip' for Juventus and only afterwards think about Alavés and 'sumar de 3 en casa'.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 07:02 · Europe/Bucharest
Angel Pérez was sent off in the 61st minute of Alavés' 1-2 home defeat by Atlético Madrid on 10 October, so the automatic ban rules him out of the trip to Balaídos. He had started that match for Quique Sánchez Flores, and his absence removes a regular from a side that has now gone four league games without a win. The change is established by the officials' decision and by the club's own team sheet from the previous fixture. How much it alters Alavés' structure depends on the replacement Sánchez Flores chooses, which is not yet known.
- Angel Pérez was sent off in the 61st minute of Alavés' 1-2 home defeat by Atlético Madrid on 10 October.
- He had started that match, which left Alavés with ten men and extended their run to four La Liga games without a win.
- Angel Pérez started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 337 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 07:02 · Europe/Bucharest
Celta confirmed on 29 September that Miguel Román had suffered a right-knee injury that required surgery, and local reporting put his recovery at six to eight weeks after an arthroscopy. That timeline rules the midfielder out of the Alavés fixture and removes a player who was prominent in the side last season. The injury occurred in a training session on 28 September rather than in a match, so it is a fixed absence rather than a reaction to the previous game. It leaves Giráldez with one fewer senior midfield option during a week that also includes Juventus.
- Celta confirmed on 29 September that Miguel Román had suffered a right-knee injury that would require surgery.
- Local reporting put his absence at six to eight weeks following an arthroscopy, with the injury sustained in training on 28 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 07:02 · Europe/Bucharest
Aspas, Celta's 39-year-old captain in his final playing season, returned to group training in early October after a grade I tear in the rectus anterior that had sidelined him for weeks. His availability matters because Celta play Juventus on Thursday and Alavés on Sunday, and Giráldez has been careful with his load. There is also a historical thread: in 2009, a 21-year-old Aspas scored twice off the bench against Alavés in a second-division win that helped keep Celta up. Whether he starts or is used as a substitute at Balaídos has not been confirmed.
- Aspas, Celta's 39-year-old captain in his final playing season, returned to group training in early October after a grade I tear in the rectus anterior that had sidelined him for weeks.
- In 2009, a 21-year-old Aspas came off the bench and scored twice, including a stoppage-time winner, in a 2-1 second-division win over Alavés that helped Celta avoid relegation.
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 07:02 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.70fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 58.8%

−0.8ppshort

Both defences are among La Liga's meanest and neither side scores freely, so few goals are likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.95
The read
Celta have home advantage and score more at Balaídos, but their drawing habit and the midweek European game keep the edge modest.
- Celta's league home record is 1W 1D 2L with 7 goals scored in 4 games
- Alaves are 0W 2D 1L away in La Liga, scoring 2 and conceding 3
- Celta played Juventus in the Europa League three days before this match
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCelta VigoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves involving these teams are usually quiet, with Alaves especially slow to concede or score early.
- Alaves have conceded 2 first-half goals in 12 matches
- Alaves average 0.4 first-half goals away
- Celta average 0.4 first-half goals conceded
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves between two low-scoring, solid teams are likely to stay level.
- Celta average 0.6 second-half goals conceded
- Alaves average 0.67 second-half goals scored and 0.75 conceded
- Celta have drawn 5 of their 8 league games
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Celta have home advantage and score more at Balaídos, but their drawing habit and the midweek European game keep the edge modest. Both teams defend well and score little, which points to a tight, low-scoring game that often ends level.
- Celta's league home record is 1W 1D 2L with 7 goals scored in 4 games
- Alaves are 0W 2D 1L away in La Liga, scoring 2 and conceding 3
- Celta have drawn 5 of their 8 league games
- Alaves drew 2 of their 3 away league games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCelta Vigo or DrawEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Celta start games at home with some intent, but Alaves concede very little before half-time. First halves involving these teams are usually quiet, with Alaves especially slow to concede or score early.
- Celta average 0.8 first-half goals at home
- Alaves concede 0.17 first-half goals per match
- Alaves have conceded 2 first-half goals in 12 matches
- Alaves average 0.4 first-half goals away
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCelta Vigo or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Both defences are among La Liga's meanest and neither side scores freely, so few goals are likely.
- Celta average 0.9 scored and 0.7 conceded per competitive match
- Alaves average 1.33 scored and 0.92 conceded
- Alaves kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Alaves have struggled to score recently and both defences are strong, so one side is likely to be shut out.
- Celta kept 5 clean sheets in 10 competitive matches
- Alaves scored 1 goal in their last 5 matches
- Alaves kept 5 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Celta's home scoring is boosted by a single 5-0, and Alaves' defence should limit them.
- Celta scored once or fewer in 3 of their last 4 matches
- Celta average 0.9 goals per competitive match overall
- Alaves concede 0.92 per game and kept 3 clean sheets in 5
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostCelta Vigo under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Alaves' away output and recent form make two or more goals on the road unlikely.
- Alaves average 0.8 away goals and scored 1 goal in their last 5 matches
- Alaves have 2 goals in 3 away league games
- Celta kept 5 clean sheets in 10 competitive matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonAlaves under 1.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Alaves have enough scoring across the season for Celta to concede at least once.
- Alaves scored 10 goals in 12 competitive matches
- Celta conceded in 5 of their 10 competitive matches
- Alaves scored 2 in 3 away league games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAlaves to scoreEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
One first-half goal is likely given Celta's home scoring and the teams' combined first-half output.
- Celta average 0.8 first-half goals at home
- Alaves average 0.4 first-half goals away
- Celta concede 0.4 first-half goals per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half output for both teams is modest, so one or zero goals after the break is likely.
- Celta average 1.4 combined second-half goals at home
- Alaves average 1.42 combined second-half goals
- Alaves have scored 1 goal in their last 5 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner totals sit near the line, with Alaves conceding a high number.
- Celta average 4.1 corners and concede 4.4
- Alaves average 4.25 corners and concede 5.58
- Combined averages point to roughly nine corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' shot totals are close to the line, giving a slight lean to the over.
- Celta average 11.0 shots and concede 11.9
- Alaves average 11.83 shots and concede 12.83
- Combined averages are just above the line
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 22.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages sit above three and a half, and both teams have red-card incidents.
- Celta average 1.7 yellow cards and their opponents 2.0
- Alaves average 2.17 yellow cards and their opponents 2.42
- Both sides have had players sent off this season
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance58%

Prediction history

Celta Vigo: 2/6 recent winner projections matched

2 of 6 comparable winner projections favouring Celta Vigo matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Celta Vigo6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 May·La Liga