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Predictions graded

Athletic Bilbao1Celta Vigo1

HT 0–1Sun 17 May 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 26–3On targetOn target 9–2CornersCorners 5–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 May 2026, 23:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Celta Vigo offer clear value at 3.50 to win outright given Athletic Bilbao's injury crisis and poor home form, with a +11pt edge over the implied probability.

The recent H2H trend of no draws and high-scoring games supports Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score as additional value plays, while Athletic Bilbao are best avoided in the match winner and handicap markets.

Context

Defenders Berchiche and Vivian are out, weakening the back line that has conceded in 14 of the last 15 matches.
- Midfielders Prados, Sancet, and N. Williams are absent, removing creativity and goals from the side.
- Athletic have lost 4 of their last 5 home matches, often struggling to control games without these players.
Home defeats to Valencia, Villarreal, Barcelona, and a 0-0 loss to Osasuna in the last five at San Mamés.
- Only one home win in that stretch, a 2-1 victory over Real Betis in March.
- Athletic have failed to score in three of those five home matches.
Celta's away record is the 4th best in La Liga, with only 4 losses in 18 trips.
- They have scored in 14 of those 18 away matches, averaging 1.28 goals per game.
- Recent away wins include a 1-0 victory at Atletico Madrid and a 3-2 win at Valencia.
The last five meetings ended with a winner, alternating between home and away victories.
- Four of those five matches had at least three total goals.
- The most recent encounter was a 2-0 Celta Vigo home win in December 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Athletic Bilbao's poor recent home form and significant injury absences, combined with Celta Vigo's solid away record, give the visitors a slight edge despite the historical H2H favoring Athletic.
- Athletic Bilbao have lost 4 of their last 5 home matches in La Liga, conceding 1.5 goals per game overall.
- Celta Vigo have won 8 of 18 away matches this season, with only 4 losses, and are 6th in the table.
- Athletic Bilbao are missing key players: Berchiche, Prados, Sancet, Vivian, and N. Williams due to injuries.
- Celta Vigo's away form is strong: 23 goals scored and 19 conceded in 18 away games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCelta VigoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Athletic Bilbao's home struggles and injury crisis make them vulnerable, while Celta Vigo's strong away form suggests they can avoid defeat, making Draw or Celta Vigo a likely outcome.
- Athletic Bilbao have won only 2 of their last 5 home matches, with 3 losses.
- Celta Vigo have lost only 4 of 18 away matches this season, with 8 wins and 6 draws.
- The last 5 H2H meetings have produced no draws, but Athletic's current form (LWLWL) is inconsistent.
- Athletic Bilbao's injury list includes 5 first-team players, weakening their squad depth.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Celta VigoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to start cautiously, with a high frequency of halftime draws in recent matches, though the pattern is not strong enough for high confidence.
- Athletic Bilbao have been drawing at halftime in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Celta Vigo have been drawing at halftime in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
- The last 5 H2H meetings have seen 2 draws at halftime.
- Athletic Bilbao's first-half goal difference is -0.2 per game.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Celta Vigo's stronger second-half performances on the road and Athletic's tendency to fade after halftime give the visitors a slight edge in the second period.
- Celta Vigo have won the second half in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Athletic Bilbao have lost the second half in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Celta Vigo's away goal difference in the second half is +2 this season.
- Athletic Bilbao's home goal difference in the second half is -1 this season.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableCelta VigoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While not a common pattern, Athletic's vulnerability and Celta's ability to finish strong make this a plausible but low-probability outcome.
- Athletic Bilbao have drawn at halftime and lost at fulltime in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Celta Vigo have drawn at halftime and won at fulltime in 1 of their last 5 away matches.
- The last 5 H2H meetings have not produced this exact HT/FT combination.
- Athletic Bilbao's injury crisis may lead to a late collapse.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/Celta VigoEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The recent H2H trend of high-scoring encounters, combined with both teams' moderate defensive records, supports a likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
- 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings between these teams have produced at least 3 total goals.
- Celta Vigo's away matches average 2.33 total goals (23 scored, 19 conceded in 18 games).
- Athletic Bilbao's home matches average 2.28 total goals (21 scored, 20 conceded in 18 games).
- Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 respective matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records, and the H2H history shows frequent goals at both ends, making both teams to score a strong possibility.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
- Celta Vigo have scored in 14 of their 18 away matches this season.
- Athletic Bilbao have scored in 13 of their 18 home matches this season.
- Athletic Bilbao have conceded in 14 of their last 15 matches overall.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede early, and the H2H pattern shows first-half goals are common, suggesting at least one goal before halftime.
- Celta Vigo have scored a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- Athletic Bilbao have conceded a first-half goal in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- The last 5 H2H meetings have seen a first-half goal in 4 matches.
- Celta Vigo average 0.6 first-half goals per game this season.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While second-half goals are not guaranteed, the recent match data shows a trend toward higher scoring after halftime, though confidence is low due to inconsistency.
- Athletic Bilbao's last 5 home matches have seen an average of 1.8 second-half goals.
- Celta Vigo's last 5 away matches have seen an average of 1.6 second-half goals.
- 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Both teams have negative goal differences in the second half this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages and H2H data suggest a moderate chance of exceeding 8.5 corners, though Celta's low corner count introduces uncertainty.
- Athletic Bilbao average 6.4 corners per game, while Celta Vigo average 3.1 corners per game.
- The last 5 H2H meetings have averaged 8.8 total corners.
- Athletic Bilbao's home matches average 9.2 total corners this season.
- Celta Vigo's away matches average 7.8 total corners this season.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a consistent record of accumulating cards, and the H2H history supports a card-heavy match, likely exceeding 4.5 total cards.
- Athletic Bilbao average 2.4 yellow cards per game, while Celta Vigo average 2.5 yellow cards per game.
- The last 5 H2H meetings have averaged 5.2 total cards.
- Athletic Bilbao's home matches average 4.8 total cards this season.
- Celta Vigo's away matches average 5.1 total cards this season.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 4W

L2-0Celta VigovAthletic ClubDec 14, 2025LL

W1-2Celta VigovAthletic ClubJan 19, 2025LL

L3-1Athletic ClubvCelta VigoSep 22, 2024LL

L2-1Celta VigovAthletic ClubMay 15, 2024LL

L4-3Athletic ClubvCelta VigoNov 10, 2023LL

3.8 goals/game avg

League Table

La Liga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Athletic Bilbao	35	13	5	17	40-51	44	LWLWL
6	Celta Vigo Promotion - Europa League (League phase)	36	13	11	12	51-47	50	LWWLL

6pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Athletic Bilbao

L0-2EspanyolMay 13LL

L0-1ValenciaMay 10LL

W4-2AlavesMay 2LL

L2-3Atletico MadridApr 25LL

W1-0OsasunaApr 21LL

L1-2VillarrealApr 12LL

L0-2GetafeApr 5LL

W2-1Real BetisMar 22LL

L0-3GironaMar 14LL

L0-1BarcelonaMar 7LL

L0-1Real SociedadMar 4CDR

D1-1Rayo VallecanoFeb 28LL

W2-1ElcheFeb 20LL

W2-1OviedoFeb 15LL

L0-1Real SociedadFeb 11CDR

Celta Vigo

L2-3LevanteMay 12LL

W1-0Atletico MadridMay 9LL

W3-1ElcheMay 3LL

L1-2VillarrealApr 26LL

L0-1BarcelonaApr 22LL

L1-3SC FreiburgApr 16UEF

L0-3OviedoApr 12LL

L0-3SC FreiburgApr 9UEF

W3-2ValenciaApr 5LL

L3-4AlavesMar 22LL

W2-0LyonMar 19UEF

D1-1Real BetisMar 15LL

D1-1LyonMar 12UEF

L1-2Real MadridMar 6LL

W2-1GironaMar 1LL

Squad & Injuries

Athletic Bilbao

10 out

Attackers9

Midfielders4/12

×#8

×#10

×#8

×#10

Defenders4/13

×#17

×#3

×#17

×#3

Goalkeeper3

#17 Y. Berchiche — Leg Injury

B. Prados Diaz — Knee Injury

#8 O. Sancet — Muscle Injury

#3 D. Vivian — Ankle Injury

#10 N. Williams — Injury

#17 Y. Berchiche — Leg Injury

B. Prados Diaz — Knee Injury

#8 O. Sancet — Muscle Injury

#3 D. Vivian — Ankle Injury

#10 N. Williams — Injury

Celta Vigo

8 out

Attackers8

Midfielders6/12

×#17

×#15

×#6

×#17

×#15

×#6

Defenders2/10

×#2

Goalkeeper3

#17 M. Roman — Foot Injury

#2 C. Starfelt — Back Injury

#15 M. Vecino — Muscle Injury

#6 I. Moriba — Knee Injury

#17 M. Roman — Foot Injury

#2 C. Starfelt — Back Injury

#15 M. Vecino — Muscle Injury

#6 I. Moriba — Knee Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Celta Vigo

Draw or Celta Vigo

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Athletic Bilbao

Celta Vigo

Squad & Injuries

Athletic Bilbao

Celta Vigo