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Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo - Elche

Elche
🇪🇸 La LigaLive
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 12:00

Quick Take

Likely outcome: Celta avoid defeat in a tight game, with Elche scoring 0 or 1 the cleanest read. Best value looks narrower than the result market, led by BTTS No and Elche under 0.5 team goals, while broad angles like under 3.5 and Celta or draw look more correct than profitable at current prices.

Handicap ResultElche +278%+6.0pp
1 St Half Double ChanceElche or Draw69%+6.0pp
Both Teams To ScoreNo57%+9.4pp

Context Signals

Betting Edges

Model probabilities

Markets to Avoid

Goals Over/Under Under 3.5:Implied 69.0% is above our 66% estimate, so the market has already taxed the under and there is no medium-confidence margin.
1st Half Goals Over/Under Over 0.5:Implied 75.2% is too steep versus our 63% estimate, and Celta have scored 0 first-half goals in each of their last 5 listed matches.
1st Half Both Teams to Score No:Implied 83.3% leaves no cushion versus our 74% estimate, and the two-way vig is too heavy for such a short first-half price.
This sets up as a tense, low-margin Balaidos game rather than an open La Liga shootout. Celta are still in the European race, level on 44 points with sixth place after 33 matches, while Elche are 14th on 38 and only four points above 18th. That pressure on both sides supports a controlled script, and the venue-specific head-to-head trend leans Celta: they have won the last three home meetings with Elche, and Elche failed to score on their last two visits there. The clearest likely outcome is Elche struggling to score.

Recent Form

Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo

L1-2VillarrealApr 26LL
L0-1BarcelonaApr 22LL
L1-3SC FreiburgApr 16UEF
L0-3OviedoApr 12LL
L0-3SC FreiburgApr 9UEF
W3-2ValenciaApr 5LL
L3-4AlavesMar 22LL
W2-0LyonMar 19UEF
D1-1Real BetisMar 15LL
D1-1LyonMar 12UEF
Elche

Elche

W2-1OviedoApr 26LL
W3-2Atletico MadridApr 22LL
W1-0ValenciaApr 11LL
L0-1Rayo VallecanoApr 3LL
W2-1Aston VillaMar 27FRI
W2-1MallorcaMar 21LL
L1-4Real MadridMar 14LL
L1-2VillarrealMar 8LL
D2-2EspanyolMar 1LL
L1-2Athletic ClubFeb 20LL

League Table

La Liga 2025/2026
#TeamPWDLGF-GAPts
7
Celta VigoCelta Vigo
3311111145-4344
14
ElcheElche
339111344-5038
6pt gap between teams

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 2W
L2-1ElchevCelta VigoSep 28, 2025LL
W1-0Celta VigovElcheApr 26, 2023LL
W0-1ElchevCelta VigoJan 6, 2023LL
W1-0Celta VigovElcheMay 15, 2022LL
L1-0ElchevCelta VigoOct 3, 2021LL
Celta Vigo: 3 clean sheets1.4 goals/game avg

Squad & Injuries

Celta Vigo

8 out
Attackers9
Midfielders4/11
×#17
×#15
×#17
×#15
Defenders4/11
×#20
×#2
×#20
×#2
Goalkeeper4
#20 M. Alonso — Yellow Cards
#17 M. Roman — Foot Injury
#2 C. Starfelt — Back Injury
#15 M. Vecino — Muscle Injury
#20 M. Alonso — Yellow Cards
#17 M. Roman — Foot Injury
#2 C. Starfelt — Back Injury
#15 M. Vecino — Muscle Injury

Elche

6 out
Attackers6/11
×#32
×#7
×#11
×#32
×#7
×#11
Midfielders10
Defenders11
Goalkeeper3
#32 A. Boayar — Muscle Injury
#7 Y. Santiago — Knee Injury
#11 G. Valera — Red Card
#32 A. Boayar — Muscle Injury
#7 Y. Santiago — Knee Injury
#11 G. Valera — Red Card