Alaves0Valencia1

HT 0–0Tue 15 Sept 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions0–100%

Edges0–50%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 15–10On targetOn target 3–3CornersCorners 2–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 06:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Alaves' perfect home record and Valencia's poor away form make a home win the standout bet at 2.10, with a 14-point edge.

The double chance (Alaves or draw) is a safer alternative, while Over 2.5 goals offers moderate value.

Context

Alaves have won three and drawn one of their opening four La Liga matches, scoring 10 goals and conceding 3. Valencia have lost three and drawn one, scoring 1 and conceding 9.
The table gap is nine points after only four rounds. Alaves are at home, where they have won all three matches with a 9-2 goal difference. Valencia have lost their only away match 3-1 at Deportivo La Coruna. This suggests Alaves can control the game, while Valencia need points to avoid falling further behind.
- Alaves are 2nd with 10 points (3W, 1D, 0L), Valencia are 20th with 1 point (0W, 1D, 3L).
- Alaves have a +7 goal difference, Valencia have -8.
- Alaves have won all three home games, scoring 9 and conceding 2.
Valencia centre-back Mouctar Diakhaby sustained a left adductor longus injury against Barcelona and has been placed on a rehabilitation programme.
His confirmed absence removes a central-defensive option for this fixture. Valencia must adjust their defensive pairing, which can constrain their structure against Alavés. The linked analysis suggests this defensive frailty supports a home win and a higher chance of over 2.5 goals.
- Valencia confirmed an injury to Diakhaby's left adductor longus sustained against Barcelona.
- The club placed him on a medical, physiotherapy and rehabilitation programme until he can rejoin group training.
- Europa Press reported that he was expected to miss the Sevilla fixture and likely the following matches, including Alavés.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 06:11 · Europe/BucharestValencia CF — Medical reportwww.valenciacf.com · 8 Sep 2026Europa Press — Diakhaby injury updatewww.europapress.es · 9 Sep 2026
Valencia's last three league results are losses: 0-5 at home to Barcelona on 6 September, 1-3 away to Deportivo La Coruna on 30 August, and 0-1 at home to Real Betis on 25 August.
Those three defeats show a team struggling at both ends. Valencia have scored only one goal in four league matches and conceded nine. Against an Alaves side that has won three straight home games, Valencia's poor form makes it hard to see them taking points.
- Valencia lost 0-5 at home to Barcelona on 2026-09-06.
- Valencia lost 1-3 away to Deportivo La Coruna on 2026-08-30.
- Valencia lost 0-1 at home to Real Betis on 2026-08-25.
Alaves beat Osasuna 5-2 on 6 September, Villarreal 1-0 on 28 August, and Getafe 3-0 on 15 August, all at home.
Those wins show Alaves are comfortable at home, scoring freely and keeping two clean sheets. Valencia have lost their only away match this season, so Alaves' home record gives them a clear advantage.
- Alaves beat Osasuna 5-2 at home on 2026-09-06.
- Alaves beat Villarreal 1-0 at home on 2026-08-28.
- Alaves beat Getafe 3-0 at home on 2026-08-15.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Alaves' strong home form and Valencia's poor away record make a home win likely, supported by motivation and structural home edge.
- Alaves home record this season: 3 wins in 3, 9 goals scored, 2 conceded
- Valencia away record: 1 loss in 1, 1 goal scored, 3 conceded
- Alaves overall form: 3 wins, 1 draw in last 4; Valencia: 0 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses
- H2H last 5: Alaves won 2, drew 2, lost 1 (including 3-2 win in March 2026)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlavesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Alaves' home strength and Valencia's struggles, the double chance of Alaves or draw is very likely.
- Alaves unbeaten at home this season (3 wins)
- Valencia have not won away this season (1 loss)
- H2H: Alaves unbeaten in 4 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancelostAlaves or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Alaves' tendency to lead at half-time gives them an edge, but the probability is not high enough for strong confidence.
- Alaves have led at half-time in 47% of matches
- Valencia have trailed at half-time in 21% of matches
- Alaves average 0.7 first-half goals vs Valencia's 0.6 conceded
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostAlavesEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Alaves winning both halves is plausible given their dominance, but Valencia could improve in the second half.
- Alaves have won 3 of 4 matches this season, often leading at half-time
- Valencia have lost 3 of 4, with 2 losses after trailing at half-time
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostAlaves/AlavesEstimated chance35%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Alaves' attacking output at home and Valencia's defensive frailty suggest a decent chance of over 2.5 goals.
- Alaves average 1.8 goals scored per match; Valencia average 1.3
- Alaves home matches average 3.0 total goals (9 scored, 2 conceded in 3 games)
- Valencia away match had 4 total goals (1-3 loss)
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Alaves are likely to score, and Valencia may find a goal despite poor form, making BTTS a reasonable bet.
- Alaves have scored in all 4 league matches this season
- Valencia have scored in 1 of 4 league matches, but scored in their only away game
- H2H: both teams scored in 3 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Alaves average 0.7 first-half goals per match
- Valencia average 0.7 first-half goals per match
- Alaves have led at half-time in 47% of matches; Valencia have trailed at half-time in 21%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring average is near the line, but uncertainty remains due to Valencia's inconsistency.
- Alaves average 1.1 second-half goals per match (total 1.8 - 0.7 first-half)
- Valencia average 0.6 second-half goals per match (total 1.3 - 0.7 first-half)
- Combined second-half average: 1.7 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner average is near the line, but variance makes this a low-confidence pick.
- Alaves average 5.5 corners per match; Valencia average 4.3
- Combined average: 9.8 corners per match
- Alaves home matches average 5.3 corners; Valencia away match had 5 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is slightly below the line, but Alaves' home attacking output could push it over.
- Alaves average 4.5 shots on target per match; Valencia average 3.6
- Combined average: 8.1 shots on target
- Alaves home matches average 5.0 shots on target; Valencia away match had 4
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The -1.0 line is priced at 4.50, implying only 22% probability, but Alaves' average winning margin at home is modest and Valencia's away losses have been by multiple goals only once.