Ludogorets Razgrad5Arda Kardzhali0

HT 3–0Mon 12 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 70%–30%ShotsShots 14–4On targetOn target 6–3CornersCorners 7–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Ludogorets are unbeaten in nine league games and have not lost at home, but Arda arrive with a 1-0 win in the last meeting and a goal in every league game this season.

The home side should still have enough, yet the 1.48 win price asks too much. Both teams to score at 2.00 is the one quote that holds up; Ludogorets to lead at half-time at 1.91 and a first-half goal at 1.33 offer little.

Context

The return of Jovićević puts a coach who won the 2024/25 treble back in charge of a squad he knows, and it is the single biggest change to Ludogorets' setup in the build-up. Ludogorets have not played a league game since 14 September, so his only matches in the job so far have been friendlies, which makes this round close to a competitive debut for him. The trigger was Thomas Reis's exit to Trabzonspor, leaving the backroom in transition while Arda prepare. One caution is that a coach's early games often bring unsettled roles and rotation, so the appointment adds uncertainty as much as it adds quality.
- Igor Jovićević took over as Ludogorets head coach in September 2026, returning for a second spell.
- He led Ludogorets to the Bulgarian league title, Bulgarian Cup and Super Cup in 2024/25.
- Thomas Reis left the club for Trabzonspor after his release clause was paid.
- Ludogorets have not played a First League match since 14 September 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 04:53 · Europe/Bucharest
Arda's 1-0 win in April is the most recent head-to-head, and it gives the visitors a concrete template for containing Ludogorets at Huvepharma Arena. That result came in a different phase of the season, however, and both squads have changed since, so it should not be treated as a form line. Its value is mainly as a reminder that Ludogorets are not automatic winners in this fixture. One narrow defeat is thin evidence of a pattern, and the April match says nothing about Arda's autumn away form.
- Arda Kardzhali beat Ludogorets 1-0 in their most recent First League meeting on 15 April 2026.
- The teams meet again at Huvepharma Arena in Round 11 on 12 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 04:53 · Europe/BucharestFotMobwww.fotmob.com · 11 Oct 2026
Ten league games without being shut out make Arda a live scoring threat even away from home, and their season has also produced four clean sheets. Ludogorets have conceded in eight of their 11 league matches, so the home defence has not been airtight. Arda's 4-1 loss at CSKA Sofia on 12 September shows the same attack can be overrun when the game opens up.
- Arda's aggregate record covers 10 competitive matches from 18 July to 19 September 2026: 10 goals scored, 6 conceded and 4 clean sheets.
- Arda found the net in all 10 of their First League matches this season.
- Their most recent league outing was a 1-1 home draw with Cherno More Varna on 19 September 2026.
Four of the last five meetings were decided by one goal or finished level, which frames this as a tighter fixture than the table suggests. Ludogorets' 4-0 win at Kardzhali on 4 December 2024 is the outlier and their only win in the sequence. Arda have won the last two, each by a single goal, so the recent evidence points to a close contest rather than a comfortable home win.
- 4 December 2024: Ludogorets won 4-0 away to Arda Kardzhali in the First League.
- 9 May 2025: Arda Kardzhali 1-1 Ludogorets; 26 May 2025: Ludogorets 2-2 Arda Kardzhali.
- 9 November 2025: Ludogorets 2-3 Arda Kardzhali.
- 15 April 2026: Arda Kardzhali 1-0 Ludogorets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.33fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 75.2%

−0.2ppshort

First halves involving these teams usually produce at least one goal, with Ludogorets active early at home.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Ludogorets Razgrad

1.48fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 67.6%

−11.6ppshort

Ludogorets have been the stronger side all season and have not lost at home in the league, while Arda have been mixed on their travels.

First Half WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Ludogorets Razgrad

1.91fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 52.4%

−10.4ppshort

Ludogorets have started strongly at home, scoring more than once on average before the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Ludogorets have been the stronger side all season and have not lost at home in the league, while Arda have been mixed on their travels.
- Ludogorets home league record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses
- Arda away league record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses
- Ludogorets unbeaten in 9 league games (7 wins, 2 draws)
- Arda lost 4-1 at CSKA Sofia on 12 September
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLudogorets RazgradEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.91
The read
Ludogorets have started strongly at home, scoring more than once on average before the break.
- Ludogorets average 1.17 first-half goals at home
- Ludogorets concede 0.33 first-half goals at home
- Arda average 0.4 first-half goals away
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonLudogorets RazgradEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves in these teams' matches are often low-scoring, which keeps the period level.
- Ludogorets' home second halves average 1.0 total goals
- Arda's away second halves average 1.4 total goals
- Ludogorets score 0.5 second-half goals at home
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets have been the stronger side all season and have not lost at home in the league, while Arda have been mixed on their travels. Recent meetings between the clubs have been tight, and Ludogorets return from a month without a league match.
- Ludogorets home league record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses
- Arda away league record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses
- Two of the last four meetings ended level
- Ludogorets have drawn 2 of 9 league games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLudogorets Razgrad or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets have started strongly at home, scoring more than once on average before the break. Arda have been tight before the break on their travels, making a level first half a real possibility.
- Ludogorets average 1.17 first-half goals at home
- Ludogorets concede 0.33 first-half goals at home
- Arda concede just 0.4 first-half goals away
- Arda score 0.4 first-half goals away
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonLudogorets Razgrad or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Games involving these sides sit close to two-and-a-half goals, with Arda's away matches averaging under three.
- Ludogorets home league games average 2.5 total goals
- Arda away league games average 2.6 total goals
- Ludogorets average 1.64 scored and 1.0 conceded
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Both teams have found the net regularly, with Arda scoring in every league game and Ludogorets in ten of eleven.
- Arda scored in all 10 league matches
- Ludogorets scored in 10 of 11 league matches
- Both teams scored in 5 of Ludogorets' last 6 games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
First halves involving these teams usually produce at least one goal, with Ludogorets active early at home.
- Ludogorets' home first halves average 1.5 total goals
- Arda's away first halves average 1.2 total goals
- Only one of Ludogorets' last six matches was 0-0 at half-time
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half totals for these sides sit close to one-and-a-half goals.
- Ludogorets' home second halves average 1.0 total goals
- Arda's away second halves average 1.4 total goals
- Ludogorets concede 0.5 second-half goals at home
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arda have found the net in every league match this season, so Ludogorets are unlikely to shut them out.
- Arda scored in all 10 league matches
- Arda average 1.5 goals per game
- Arda average 1.2 goals per away game
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostArda Kardzhali to scoreEstimated chance73%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Corner counts in both teams' matches have generally stayed below nine.
- Ludogorets average 5.1 corners, opponents 2.6
- Arda average 3.6 corners, opponents 3.6
- Ludogorets' home matches average 7.2 total corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shot counts in both teams' matches have usually stayed below the mid-twenties.
- Ludogorets matches average 21.7 total shots
- Arda matches average 21.9 total shots
- Ludogorets' home matches average 20.4 total shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 25.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Shots on target in these teams' matches have mostly stayed under twelve.
- Ludogorets matches average 8.8 shots on target in total
- Arda matches average 9.4 shots on target in total
- Ludogorets' recent matches range from 5 to 11 on-target shots in total
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 11.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Card totals in these teams' games sit around four to five, with Arda recently collecting five in one match.
- Ludogorets matches average 4.1 total cards
- Arda matches average 4.4 total cards
- Arda picked up five yellow cards at CSKA Sofia
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

L1-0Arda KardzhalivLudogoretsApr 15, 2026FIR

W2-3LudogoretsvArda KardzhaliNov 9, 2025FIR

D2-2LudogoretsvArda KardzhaliMay 26, 2025FIR

D1-1Arda KardzhalivLudogoretsMay 9, 2025FIR

W0-4Arda KardzhalivLudogoretsDec 4, 2024FIR

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

First League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Ludogorets Razgrad Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)	9	7	2	0	16-7	23	WWDDW
6	Arda Kardzhali Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)	10	5	2	3	15-12	17	DLLWW