First LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Cherno More Varna2Ludogorets Razgrad3

HT 1–0Sun 9 Aug 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Aug 2026, 00:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Ludogorets' perfect start and Cherno More's struggles make an away win the standout bet at 1.70, with a 6-point edge over the market.

Both teams to score 'No' also offers value given Cherno More's attacking woes, but their eight new signings add risk. Avoid first-half and handicap markets where edges are thin or non-existent.

Context

The club's season presentation confirmed eight arrivals and the return of Martin Banev after three loan spells.
- Cherno More have taken only one point from three league matches, scoring once and conceding five.
- The squad turnover means historical performance data, including recent H2H results, may be less reliable.
Ludogorets won all three league matches: 2-1 vs Botev Vratsa, 2-0 at Dunav Ruse, and 1-0 vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
- They have conceded only one goal in the league, keeping two clean sheets.
- Cherno More have lost two of three, including a 0-3 home defeat to Spartak Varna.
The two most recent league H2H matches (April and November 2025) both ended 0-0.
- Cherno More have since signed eight new players, altering the squad that played in those games.
- Ludogorets' current defensive record (one goal conceded in three games) aligns with a low-scoring trend, but Cherno More's new attack is an unknown.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets are in strong early-season form with a perfect record, while Cherno More are struggling near the relegation zone, making an away win highly likely.
- Ludogorets have won all 3 league matches this season (9 points, 5 goals scored, 1 conceded).
- Cherno More are 13th with 1 point from 3 matches, scoring only 1 goal and conceding 5.
- Cherno More lost their only home league game 0-3 to Spartak Varna.
- Ludogorets won their only away league game 2-0 at Dunav Ruse.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLudogorets RazgradEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Ludogorets' strong form and Cherno More's poor start, the away side is unlikely to lose, and a draw is the worst-case scenario for them.
- Ludogorets have not lost in their last 5 league matches (4W 1D).
- Cherno More have not won in their last 5 competitive matches (3L 2D).
- The last two H2H meetings ended 0-0, but Cherno More's squad has been heavily revamped.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Ludogorets RazgradEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets tend to start stronger and have a better first-half scoring record, making them favorites to lead at the break.
- Ludogorets have led at half-time in 33% of their last 15 matches, while Cherno More have trailed at half-time in 33%.
- Ludogorets average 0.7 first-half goals, Cherno More average 0.4.
- Cherno More have conceded first-half goals in 2 of their 3 league games this season.
- Ludogorets scored 2 first-half goals in their last league match.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostLudogorets RazgradEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half could see a draw at the break, with Ludogorets' superior quality and fitness likely to secure a win in the second half.
- Ludogorets have led at half-time in 33% of their last 15 matches and won 60% of those matches.
- Cherno More have drawn at half-time in 27% of their last 15 matches (based on trailing/leading percentages).
- Ludogorets have a strong second-half record, often pulling away after a tight first half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/Ludogorets RazgradEstimated chance40%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring trends, and recent H2H matches have been goalless, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair.
- Cherno More average 0.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over their last 15 matches.
- Ludogorets average 1.4 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over their last 15 matches.
- The last two H2H meetings finished 0-0.
- Cherno More have scored only 1 goal in 3 league games this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cherno More's offensive struggles and Ludogorets' defensive solidity make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Cherno More have failed to score in 2 of their 3 league matches this season.
- Ludogorets kept a clean sheet in their only away league game.
- In the last two H2H meetings, neither team scored.
- Cherno More's attack has been blunt, averaging 0.9 goals over their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets' strong defense and Cherno More's attacking ineptitude point to a possible away clean sheet.
- Ludogorets kept a clean sheet in their only away league game this season.
- Cherno More have failed to score in 2 of their 3 league matches.
- Ludogorets have conceded only 1 goal in 3 league games overall.
- Cherno More average only 0.9 goals scored over their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCherno More Varna not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and recent H2H first halves have been goalless, supporting under 1.5 goals.
- Cherno More average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Ludogorets average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- In the last two H2H meetings, the first half ended 0-0.
- Cherno More have scored only 1 first-half goal in 3 league matches this season.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given the overall low-scoring patterns and recent H2H results, the second half is also likely to be tight, though confidence is lower due to limited half-specific data.
- Cherno More's second-half goals data is not directly available, but their overall low scoring suggests few second-half goals.
- Ludogorets' matches have averaged 2.0 total goals this season, with most goals coming in the first half.
- The last two H2H matches had no goals in either half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cherno More's extremely low corner count suggests a low total, but the lack of Ludogorets corner data makes this a low-confidence prediction.
- Cherno More average only 1 corner per match over their last 15 matches.
- Ludogorets' corner data is unavailable, but their possession-based style may not generate many corners.
- The only recent match with corner data for Cherno More had 9 total corners (1 for Cherno More, 8 for opponent).
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 45% vs our 50% estimate leaves minimal edge; the market already prices Ludogorets as slight first-half favourites.

Head-to-Head

1W · 3D · 1W

D0-0LudogoretsvCherno More VarnaApr 9, 2026FIR

D0-0Cherno More VarnavLudogoretsNov 2, 2025FIR

W2-0Cherno More VarnavLudogoretsMay 13, 2025FIR

L2-0LudogoretsvCherno More VarnaApr 27, 2025FIR

D1-1Cherno More VarnavLudogoretsFeb 22, 2025FIR

Cherno More Varna: 3 clean sheetsLudogorets Razgrad: 3 clean sheets1.2 goals/game avg

League Table

First League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
13	Cherno More Varna Relegation Playoffs	3	0	1	2	1-5	1	LLD
2	Ludogorets Razgrad Play-offs	3	3	0	0	5-1	9	WWW

8pt gap between teamsLudogorets Razgrad leads the leagueCherno More Varna in relegation zone

Recent Form

Cherno More Varna

L0-1Botev PlovdivAug 1FIR

L0-3Spartak VarnaJul 26FIR

D1-1Botev VratsaJul 19FIR

D1-1Dunav RuseJul 11FRI

D2-2DobrudzhaJul 8FRI

W1-0Farul ConstantaJul 8FRI

W1-0Spartak PlevenJul 3FRI

D0-0Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaJul 1FRI

W1-0Yantra 2019Jun 24FRI

L2-3Arda KardzhaliMay 25FIR

L0-5Botev PlovdivMay 16FIR

W2-0Lokomotiv PlovdivMay 12FIR

W2-0Botev PlovdivMay 9FIR

D0-0Arda KardzhaliMay 3FIR

W1-0Lokomotiv PlovdivApr 26FIR

Ludogorets Razgrad

W2-1Botev VratsaAug 2FIR

D2-2Hapoel Tel AvivJul 30UEF

W2-0Dunav RuseJul 27FIR

L0-2Hapoel Tel AvivJul 23UEF

W1-0Lokomotiv PlovdivJul 18FIR

W1-0Teuta DurrësJul 10FRI

W1-0Septemvri SofiaJul 10FRI

D2-2FC BotosaniJul 4FRI

W7-4Etar Veliko TarnovoJun 26FRI

W1-0CSKA SofiaMay 25FIR

L0-1CSKA 1948May 16FIR

D1-1Levski SofiaMay 13FIR

W1-0Levski SofiaMay 9FIR

L0-1CSKA SofiaMay 3FIR

D0-0CSKA SofiaApr 29CUP

Squad & Injuries

Cherno More Varna

30 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Ludogorets Razgrad

36 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders14

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ludogorets Razgrad

Draw at half-time / Ludogorets Razgrad at full-time

No

Draw or Ludogorets Razgrad

Under 1.5

Result3 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

No

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Cherno More Varna

Ludogorets Razgrad

Squad & Injuries

Cherno More Varna

Ludogorets Razgrad