CSKA Sofia4Arda Kardzhali1

HT 1–1Sat 12 Sept 2026, 18:15 Predictions graded

Predictions9–375%

Edges8–0100%

PossPossession 57%–43%ShotsShots 17–7On targetOn target 9–6CornersCorners 4–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 00:15 · Europe/Bucharest

CSKA Sofia are favourites at home against Arda, but the coaching change and short turnaround create uncertainty.

The best value lies in goals markets: Over 2.5 goals at 1.95 (+9% edge) and CSKA team total Over 1.5 at 1.91 (+13% edge). Avoid match winner and double chance bets as odds are too short.

Context

Hristo Yanev led CSKA through the 9 September Super Cup, a 4-2 win over Levski, and then resigned effective after that match.
CSKA have not announced a successor, so the coaching structure for this match is unresolved. That uncertainty can change match preparation, selection decisions and in-game management. The linked analysis still favours CSKA on home record and recent form, but the coaching handover is an unquantified variable.
- CSKA confirmed on 8 September that Yanev had resigned as head coach and that the Super Cup against Levski would be his last match.
- CSKA won that Super Cup 4-2 on 9 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 00:14 · Europe/BucharestBulgarian News Agency: CSKA confirm Hristo Yanev's resignationwww.bta.bg · 8 Sep 2026Topsport: Levski 2-4 CSKAtopsport.bg · 9 Sep 2026
CSKA Sofia are third in the First League with 17 points from 7 matches.
Their home form is strong: four wins from four, with 13 goals scored and 4 conceded. This gives them a clear advantage against Arda Kardzhali, who have lost one of their four away matches. However, Arda have also won two away games, so the home edge is not overwhelming.
- CSKA Sofia home record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 13 goals for, 4 goals against.
- Arda Kardzhali away record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 5 goals for, 3 goals against.
CSKA's Super Cup win over Levski ended on 9 September, three days before this fixture, and the league calendar also schedules a postponed match at Lokomotiv Sofia on 16 September.
The compressed sequence increases recovery and rotation pressure on CSKA's match squad. Players involved in the Super Cup may have limited recovery time, and the upcoming league match could influence selection for this game.
- CSKA beat Levski 4-2 in the Super Cup on 9 September; the match concluded after 90+9 minutes.
- The approved league programme places CSKA–Arda on 12 September and Lokomotiv Sofia–CSKA on 16 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 00:14 · Europe/BucharestTopsport: Levski 2-4 CSKAtopsport.bg · 9 Sep 2026Cross.bg reporting the approved Bulgarian league programmewww.cross.bg · 2 Sep 2026
Arda Kardzhali are fifth in the First League with 16 points from 8 matches.
Their recent league form is LWWWW, including a 2-0 home win over Botev Vratsa on 31 August and a 1-0 away win at Lokomotiv Plovdiv on 24 August. This run shows they can win both at home and away, but the loss to Botev Plovdiv on 4 September shows they are not unbeatable.
- Arda Kardzhali form in last five league matches: LWWWW.
- Recent results: 2-0 win vs Botev Vratsa (31 Aug), 1-0 win at Lokomotiv Plovdiv (24 Aug), 2-3 loss vs Botev Plovdiv (4 Sep).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA's perfect home record and superior recent form, combined with their strong H2H dominance at home, make them favourites despite the coaching uncertainty.
- CSKA Sofia home record this season: 4 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 13 goals scored, 4 conceded.
- CSKA Sofia last 5 league matches: 4 wins, 1 draw, 13 goals scored, 4 conceded.
- Arda away record this season: 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 5 goals scored, 3 conceded.
- H2H last 5 meetings: CSKA won 3, Arda won 1, 1 draw; CSKA won both home meetings.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCSKA SofiaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA's strong home form and unbeaten recent league run make a home win or draw highly likely, with Arda's solid form posing a moderate threat.
- CSKA Sofia are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches (4W, 1D).
- CSKA Sofia have not lost at home this season (4W, 0D, 0L).
- Arda have lost only 1 of their last 5 league matches (4W, 1L).
- H2H: CSKA have not lost to Arda in the last 5 meetings (3W, 1D, 1L).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCSKA Sofia or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA's early scoring tendency gives them an edge to lead at the break, but the probability remains moderate.
- CSKA led at half-time in 40% of their matches this season.
- Arda trailed at half-time in 20% of their matches this season.
- CSKA have scored first-half goals in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCSKA SofiaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA's ability to control games at home could lead to a half-time/full-time double, but Arda's resilience makes it a lower probability.
- CSKA won both halves in 2 of their last 5 league matches.
- Arda lost both halves in 1 of their last 5 league matches.
- CSKA home record: 4 wins, often with early leads.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostCSKA Sofia / CSKA SofiaEstimated chance35%

Goals7 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA's high-scoring home games and Arda's ability to score away suggest a good chance of at least three goals, supported by recent H2H trends.
- CSKA home league matches average 4.25 total goals (13 scored, 4 conceded in 4 games).
- CSKA last 5 league matches: 13 goals scored, 4 conceded, average 3.4 total goals.
- Arda away league matches average 2.0 total goals (5 scored, 3 conceded in 4 games).
- H2H last 5 meetings: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Arda's consistent away scoring and CSKA's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
- CSKA have conceded in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Arda have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Arda have scored in 3 of their 4 away league matches this season.
- H2H: Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA's tendency to score early, especially at home, makes a first-half goal likely.
- CSKA average 0.9 first-half goals per match this season.
- CSKA have scored in the first half in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Arda average 0.5 first-half goals per match this season.
- H2H: 3 of the last 5 meetings had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half often sees more goals as teams open up, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- CSKA home matches average 2.5 second-half goals (based on total goals minus first-half goals).
- Arda away matches average 1.0 second-half goals.
- CSKA have scored in the second half in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA's defensive solidity at home could produce a clean sheet, but Arda's away scoring record reduces confidence.
- CSKA kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5 league matches.
- Arda failed to score in 1 of their last 5 league matches.
- CSKA home clean sheets this season: 1 in 4 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostArda Kardzhali not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA's strong home scoring record makes it unlikely that Arda will keep a clean sheet.
- CSKA have scored in all 4 home league matches this season (13 goals).
- Arda have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 5 league matches.
- CSKA have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCSKA Sofia to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA's prolific home scoring makes over 1.5 home goals a solid expectation.
- CSKA average 3.25 goals per home league match this season.
- CSKA have scored at least 2 goals in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Arda concede an average of 0.75 goals per away league match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonCSKA Sofia over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Arda's consistent away scoring and CSKA's occasional defensive lapses make an away goal likely.
- Arda have scored in 3 of their 4 away league matches this season.
- Arda average 1.25 goals per away league match.
- CSKA have conceded in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonArda Kardzhali over 0.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 58% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

W3-1CSKA SofiavArda KardzhaliFeb 6, 2026FIR

L1-0Arda KardzhalivCSKA SofiaSep 18, 2025FIR

D1-1Arda KardzhalivCSKA SofiaMay 31, 2025FIR

W2-1CSKA SofiavArda KardzhaliFeb 26, 2025CUP

W2-0CSKA SofiavArda KardzhaliFeb 16, 2025FIR

2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

First League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	CSKA Sofia Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)	7	5	2	0	17-5	17	DWWWW
5	Arda Kardzhali Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)	8	5	1	2	13-7	16	LWWWW