First LeagueFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Lokomotiv Sofia1Ludogorets Razgrad2

HT 1–1Sun 6 Sept 2026, 18:15 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges6–275%

PossPossession 36%–64%ShotsShots 6–17On targetOn target 3–6CornersCorners 2–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 07:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Ludogorets are strong favourites but offer no betting edge at 1.48.

The standout value is over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.50 (model 55% vs implied 40%). Avoid first-half over 0.5 goals at 1.30, which is heavily overpriced.

Context

Lokomotiv Sofia have played six First League matches this season, earning three points from three draws and three defeats.
Their recent form is DLLDL, with the only points coming from draws against Dunav Ruse, Slavia Sofia, and Botev Plovdiv. They have lost both home matches, conceding five goals and scoring two. Facing an unbeaten Ludogorets side, this poor run makes a home result unlikely.
- Lokomotiv Sofia are 13th with 3 points from 6 matches (0W, 3D, 3L).
- They have lost both home matches this season, scoring 2 and conceding 5.
- Recent form is DLLDL, with no wins in their last five league games.
Ludogorets Razgrad have played seven First League matches, winning five and drawing two.
Their form is DDWWW, with the only dropped points coming in draws against Spartak Varna and Slavia Sofia. They have scored 12 goals and conceded only 5, and their away record is strong with two wins and a draw from three matches. This consistency makes them clear favourites against a struggling Lokomotiv side.
- Ludogorets are 2nd with 17 points from 7 matches (5W, 2D, 0L).
- They are unbeaten in the league this season.
- Away record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses in 3 matches.
The last five First League meetings between these teams show Ludogorets with three wins, one draw, and one loss.
In the most recent match on 7 February 2026, Ludogorets won 3-1 at Lokomotiv Sofia. The only Lokomotiv win in this period came in September 2024, when Ludogorets won 2-0 at home. This pattern suggests Ludogorets have a clear edge in this fixture.
- 2026-02-07: Lokomotiv Sofia 1-3 Ludogorets
- 2025-08-17: Ludogorets 0-0 Lokomotiv Sofia
- 2025-03-09: Lokomotiv Sofia 1-2 Ludogorets
Ludogorets centre-back Olivier Verdon has left the club by mutual agreement. He started one of the five recent fixtures with available lineups, while Anton Nedyalkov started in the same position in four of those five.
Verdon's confirmed departure removes an experienced central-defence option from Ludogorets' selection for this away fixture. Nedyalkov has been the regular starter in that role, so the immediate change may be limited, but the squad's depth in central defence is reduced.
- Ludogorets announced on 5 September that it had parted with Verdon by mutual agreement.
- The club described the defender as one of its most experienced and important players in recent years.
- O. Verdon started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- A. Nedyalkov started in the same position in 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when O. Verdon did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 07:57 · Europe/BucharestPFC Ludogoretsludogorets.com · 5 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets' superior league position, recent form, and dominant head-to-head record make them clear favourites.
- Ludogorets are 2nd with 17 points (5W 2D 0L), while Lokomotiv Sofia are 13th with 3 points (0W 3D 3L).
- Ludogorets have won 3 of their last 5 league matches, while Lokomotiv Sofia have not won in their last 5 league matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Ludogorets have won 3 and drawn 1, including a 3-1 away win in February 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLudogorets RazgradEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets' unbeaten league record and strong H2H dominance make a Lokomotiv Sofia win highly unlikely.
- Ludogorets are unbeaten in the league this season (5W 2D).
- Lokomotiv Sofia have only 3 draws and 3 losses in 6 league matches, with no wins.
- Ludogorets have not lost to Lokomotiv Sofia in the last 5 H2H meetings (3W 2D).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Ludogorets RazgradEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets' superior first-half scoring and Lokomotiv Sofia's poor first-half record make a Ludogorets half-time lead likely.
- Ludogorets lead at half-time in 40% of their matches, while Lokomotiv Sofia lead in only 14%.
- Ludogorets average 0.9 first-half goals, while Lokomotiv Sofia average only 0.3 first-half goals.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Ludogorets led at half-time in 2 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostLudogorets RazgradEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets' ability to control games from the start and Lokomotiv Sofia's weak first-half performances support a Ludogorets half-time/full-time double.
- Ludogorets have led at half-time and won the match in 2 of their last 5 league matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia have trailed at half-time in 50% of their matches and have not won any league match this season.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Ludogorets led at half-time and won the match once.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostLudogorets Razgrad / Ludogorets RazgradEstimated chance40%

Goals4 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lokomotiv Sofia's leaky defence and Ludogorets' attacking quality suggest a high-scoring game.
- Lokomotiv Sofia's league matches average 3.17 total goals (7 scored, 12 conceded in 6 games).
- Ludogorets' league matches average 2.43 total goals (12 scored, 5 conceded in 7 games).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 matches had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lokomotiv Sofia's ability to score at home and Ludogorets' occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring plausible.
- Lokomotiv Sofia have scored in 5 of their 6 league matches.
- Ludogorets have conceded in 4 of their 7 league matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in 2 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets' tendency to score early and Lokomotiv Sofia's first-half defensive weakness support a first-half goal.
- Ludogorets average 0.9 first-half goals per match.
- Lokomotiv Sofia concede an average of 0.9 first-half goals per match.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 matches had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, and the match is likely to open up as it progresses.
- Lokomotiv Sofia's matches average 1.83 second-half goals (total goals minus first-half goals).
- Ludogorets' matches average 1.29 second-half goals.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 matches had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets' solid defence could keep a clean sheet, but Lokomotiv Sofia's scoring record makes it uncertain.
- Ludogorets have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 league matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia have failed to score in only 1 of 6 league matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Ludogorets kept a clean sheet once.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostLokomotiv Sofia not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lokomotiv Sofia's home scoring is modest, but they have managed to score against Ludogorets in recent home meetings.
- Lokomotiv Sofia average 1.17 goals per home match this season.
- Ludogorets concede an average of 1.0 goals per away match.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings at Lokomotiv Sofia, Lokomotiv scored 1 goal in each of the last two home matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostLokomotiv Sofia over 1.5Estimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets' strong away scoring and Lokomotiv Sofia's poor home defence make multiple away goals likely.
- Ludogorets average 2.0 goals per away match this season.
- Lokomotiv Sofia concede an average of 2.5 goals per home match.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Ludogorets scored 2+ goals in 3 matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonLudogorets Razgrad over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets' defensive solidity could lead to a win without conceding, but Lokomotiv Sofia's scoring threat makes it a low-probability outcome.
- Ludogorets have won 2 away matches this season, one of which was by a 2-0 scoreline.
- Lokomotiv Sofia have failed to score in 1 of 2 home matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Ludogorets won without conceding once.
BetBugs · Away Win to NillostYesEstimated chance30%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 51% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 4W

L1-3Lokomotiv SofiavLudogoretsFeb 7, 2026FIR

D0-0LudogoretsvLokomotiv SofiaAug 17, 2025FIR

L1-2Lokomotiv SofiavLudogoretsMar 9, 2025FIR

L2-0LudogoretsvLokomotiv SofiaSep 21, 2024FIR

L6-0LudogoretsvLokomotiv SofiaMar 16, 2024FIR

Ludogorets Razgrad unbeaten in 5 meetingsLudogorets Razgrad: 3 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

First League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
13	Lokomotiv Sofia Relegation Playoffs	6	0	3	3	7-12	3	DLLDL
2	Ludogorets Razgrad Play-offs	7	5	2	0	12-5	17	DDWWW

14pt gap between teamsLokomotiv Sofia in relegation zone

Recent Form

Lokomotiv Sofia

D2-2Dunav RuseAug 31FIR

L1-3Arda KardzhaliAug 17FIR

L1-3CSKA 1948Aug 8FIR

D1-1Slavia SofiaJul 31FIR

L1-2Levski SofiaJul 25FIR

D1-1Botev PlovdivJul 21FIR

D0-0Teuta DurrësJul 11FRI

D3-3DukagjiniJul 4FRI

W2-1DritaJun 26FRI

L0-3Spartak VarnaMay 22FIR

W2-0Slavia SofiaMay 18FIR

D1-1BeroeMay 14FIR

D2-2MontanaMay 9FIR

D2-2Botev VratsaMay 5FIR

W3-0DobrudzhaMay 1FIR

Ludogorets Razgrad

D1-1Spartak VarnaAug 30FIR

D1-1Slavia SofiaAug 22FIR

W2-0Botev PlovdivAug 15FIR

W3-2Cherno More VarnaAug 9FIR

W2-1Botev VratsaAug 2FIR

D2-2Hapoel Tel AvivJul 30UEF

W2-0Dunav RuseJul 27FIR

L0-2Hapoel Tel AvivJul 23UEF

W1-0Lokomotiv PlovdivJul 18FIR

W1-0Teuta DurrësJul 10FRI

W1-0Septemvri SofiaJul 10FRI

D2-2FC BotosaniJul 4FRI

W7-4Etar Veliko TarnovoJun 26FRI

W1-0CSKA SofiaMay 25FIR

L0-1CSKA 1948May 16FIR

Squad & Injuries

Lokomotiv Sofia

30 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Ludogorets Razgrad

34 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders14

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ludogorets Razgrad

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 1.5

Draw or Ludogorets Razgrad

Ludogorets Razgrad at half-time / Ludogorets Razgrad at full-time

Over 0.5

Over 1.5

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals4 of 8 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Lokomotiv Sofia

Ludogorets Razgrad

Squad & Injuries

Lokomotiv Sofia

Ludogorets Razgrad