First LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Ludogorets Razgrad2Botev Vratsa1

HT 2–0Sun 2 Aug 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–443%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Jul 2026, 11:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Ludogorets' total H2H dominance—five straight wins to nil in 2025—and Botev Vratsa's scoring struggles make 'Both Teams to Score – No' and 'Home Clean Sheet – Yes' the standout value bets, with edges of +7.5 and +10.1 points respectively.

Despite a tight 70-hour turnaround after a European qualifier, Ludogorets' depth should secure a low-scoring win, but avoid short-priced match winner and half-time markets where value is absent.

Context

Ludogorets play Hapoel Tel Aviv on 30 July at 21:00 in a Conference League second qualifying round return leg, with the first leg ending 0-0.
- Kickoff against Botev Vratsa is on 2 August at 19:00, leaving only 70 hours between matches.
- Manager Per-Mathias Høgmo may rotate key players to manage fatigue, potentially disrupting rhythm.
The last five H2H results: 2-0, 1-0, 2-0, 1-0, 3-0, all in Ludogorets' favor.
- Botev Vratsa have not found the net against Ludogorets since at least early 2025.
- Ludogorets have kept clean sheets in both league matches this season, conceding zero goals.
Ludogorets beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 at home and Dunav Ruse 2-0 away in their first two First League matches.
- They have not conceded a goal in 180 minutes of league play this season.
- Over the last 15 matches, they average only 1.0 goal conceded per game.
Botev Vratsa lost 2-1 away to CSKA 1948 on 25 July.
- They drew 1-1 at home to Cherno More Varna, leaving them with one point from two matches.
- In their last 15 matches, they average 1.1 goals conceded per game, but away form remains a concern.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ludogorets Razgrad

1.25fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Extreme H2H dominance (5 straight wins to nil) and strong early-season form make Ludogorets clear favorites, despite potential fatigue from a midweek European tie.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Extreme H2H dominance (5 straight wins to nil) and strong early-season form make Ludogorets clear favorites, despite potential fatigue from a midweek European tie.
- Ludogorets have won all 5 recent H2H meetings, keeping clean sheets in each (last 5 matches, 2025).
- Ludogorets are top of the league with 2 wins from 2, scoring 3 and conceding 0 (current season).
- Botev Vratsa have 1 point from 2 games, losing their only away match 2-1 (current season).
- Ludogorets average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over last 15 matches, with 72% possession.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLudogorets RazgradEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets have a tendency to start strongly in this fixture, leading at the break in 3 of the last 5 H2H, and their overall first-half stats are superior to Botev Vratsa's.
- Ludogorets led at halftime in 33% of last 15 matches, trailing in only 20%.
- Botev Vratsa trailed at halftime in 21% of last 15 matches, leading in 29%.
- In 3 of last 5 H2H meetings, Ludogorets were winning at halftime (2025).
- Ludogorets average 0.7 first-half goals scored vs 0.5 conceded over last 15 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonLudogorets RazgradEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets' historical control over this fixture, often leading at the break and winning comfortably, supports a HT/FT double, though rotation risk tempers confidence.
- Ludogorets led at halftime in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings and won all 5 (2025).
- Ludogorets have won both halves in 2 of their last 5 matches across all competitions.
- Botev Vratsa have lost both halves in 1 of their last 5 away matches.
- Ludogorets' home record this season: 1 win, 1-0 (current season).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonLudogorets Razgrad / Ludogorets RazgradEstimated chance50%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Botev Vratsa's historical scoring struggles against Ludogorets (0 goals in last 5 H2H) and Ludogorets' solid defensive start to the season strongly point to a home clean sheet.
- Botev Vratsa failed to score in all 5 recent H2H meetings (2025).
- Ludogorets kept clean sheets in both league matches this season (2 wins, 0 conceded).
- Botev Vratsa scored only 2 goals in 2 league games, both at home (current season).
- Ludogorets conceded only 1.0 goals on average over last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern of Ludogorets shutting out Botev Vratsa is overwhelming, and their current defensive form reinforces a high probability of a home clean sheet.
- Ludogorets kept clean sheets in all 5 recent H2H meetings vs Botev Vratsa (2025).
- Ludogorets have not conceded in 2 league matches this season (current season).
- Botev Vratsa failed to score in 3 of last 5 away matches across all competitions (last 5 away).
- Ludogorets average only 1.0 goals conceded over last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostBotev Vratsa not to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent H2H encounters have been low-scoring, and Ludogorets' controlled style (high possession, few goals) combined with potential rotation after a European tie suggests a match with fewer than 3 goals.
- 4 of last 5 H2H meetings had under 2.5 goals (2025).
- Ludogorets' 2 league wins this season were 1-0 and 2-0 (current season).
- Botev Vratsa's away match this season ended 2-1 (current season).
- Ludogorets average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring averages, and the H2H trend shows tight opening periods, making a low-scoring first half likely.
- Ludogorets average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Botev Vratsa average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded over last 15 matches.
- In 4 of last 5 H2H meetings, the first half had under 1.5 goals (2025).
- Ludogorets' 2 league matches this season had 1 first-half goal each (current season).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets' dominance in possession and high corner count suggests they will win many corners, potentially pushing the total over 8.5 even if Botev Vratsa contribute few.
- Ludogorets average 10 corners per match over last 15 matches.
- Botev Vratsa average only 1.5 corners per match over last 15 matches, but concede many (opponent corners high).
- In the only recent match with corner data (Ludogorets vs CSKA 1948), Ludogorets had 10 corners.
- Ludogorets' high possession (72%) typically generates corner opportunities.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While data is sparse, Ludogorets' shot dominance and Botev Vratsa's tendency to concede shots on target (opponent averaged 5+ in available data) make over 8.5 shots on target plausible.
- Ludogorets average 16 shots total and 2 shots on target per match over last 15 matches (note: shots on target data limited).
- Botev Vratsa average 8.5 shots total and 3.5 shots on target over last 15 matches.
- In the only recent match with full shot data (Ludogorets vs CSKA 1948), total shots on target were 7 (2+5).
- Ludogorets' high shot volume (16 per game) should translate to more on-target efforts against a weaker side.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 61% vs our 55% estimate leaves no edge; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L2-0LudogoretsvBotev VratsaNov 30, 2025FIR

W0-1Botev VratsavLudogoretsJul 25, 2025FIR

L2-0LudogoretsvBotev VratsaApr 23, 2025CUP

W0-1Botev VratsavLudogoretsApr 10, 2025CUP

L3-0LudogoretsvBotev VratsaMar 15, 2025FIR

Ludogorets Razgrad: 2 clean sheetsBotev Vratsa: 3 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

First League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	Ludogorets Razgrad Play-offs	2	2	0	0	3-0	6	WW
9	Botev Vratsa Relegation Playoffs	2	0	1	1	2-3	1	LD

5pt gap between teamsLudogorets Razgrad leads the leagueBotev Vratsa in relegation zone

Recent Form

Ludogorets Razgrad

W2-0Dunav RuseJul 27FIR

L0-2Hapoel Tel AvivJul 23UEF

W1-0Lokomotiv PlovdivJul 18FIR

W1-0Teuta DurrësJul 10FRI

W1-0Septemvri SofiaJul 10FRI

D2-2FC BotosaniJul 4FRI

W7-4Etar Veliko TarnovoJun 26FRI

W1-0CSKA SofiaMay 25FIR

L0-1CSKA 1948May 16FIR

D1-1Levski SofiaMay 13FIR

W1-0Levski SofiaMay 9FIR

L0-1CSKA SofiaMay 3FIR

D0-0CSKA SofiaApr 29CUP

L1-2CSKA 1948Apr 25FIR

L1-2CSKA SofiaApr 21CUP

Botev Vratsa

L1-2CSKA 1948Jul 25FIR

D1-1Cherno More VarnaJul 19FIR

W1-0Arda KardzhaliJul 10FRI

D2-2Beitar JerusalemJul 3FRI

W2-1Spartak PlevenJul 1FRI

D1-1Levski SofiaJun 27FRI

W3-0BeroeMay 22FIR

W2-1DobrudzhaMay 18FIR

W1-0MontanaMay 14FIR

D1-1Septemvri SofiaMay 10FIR

D2-2Lokomotiv SofiaMay 5FIR

W2-1Spartak VarnaMay 2FIR

D1-1Slavia SofiaApr 26FIR

W3-2Lokomotiv SofiaApr 14FIR

L0-1CSKA 1948Apr 10FIR

Squad & Injuries

Ludogorets Razgrad

33 available

Attackers6

Midfielders12

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Botev Vratsa

25 available

Attackers2

Midfielders12

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Ludogorets Razgrad2Botev Vratsa1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Botev Vratsa not to score

Ludogorets Razgrad

Ludogorets Razgrad at half-time / Ludogorets Razgrad at full-time

Under 1.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Ludogorets Razgrad or Draw

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Ludogorets Razgrad

Botev Vratsa

Squad & Injuries

Ludogorets Razgrad

Botev Vratsa