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Predictions graded

Ludogorets Razgrad2Septemvri Sofia1

HT 1–0Mon 14 Sept 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges6–275%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 14–6On targetOn target 8–2CornersCorners 5–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 06:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Ludogorets are strong favourites to beat Septemvri Sofia, but the odds are heavily juiced with no value: home win at 1.20 implies 83% vs our 72% estimate.

Avoid the obvious Ludogorets markets; the best edge is negative across the board, so this match is a pass for value bettors.

Context

Ludogorets are third in the First League with 20 points from eight matches.
They have won six and drawn two, scoring 14 goals and conceding six. This strong start gives them a solid base against a lower-ranked opponent.
- Ludogorets have 6 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses in 8 league matches.
- They have scored 14 goals and conceded 6, with a goal difference of +8.
Septemvri are tenth in the First League with 8 points from 8 matches.
Away from home, they have won once, drawn once, and lost twice, scoring 3 goals and conceding 6. This away form is a concern against a strong Ludogorets side.
- Septemvri's away record: 1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses in 4 matches.
- They have scored 3 goals and conceded 6 away from home.
Ludogorets centre-back Olivier Verdon left the club by mutual agreement on 5 September. He had not started any of the team's five recent fixtures with available lineups.
His confirmed departure removes a central-defence option from Ludogorets' match-day selection for Septemvri's visit. The club described Verdon as one of its most experienced defenders, but his recent absence from starting lineups suggests the immediate impact may be limited.
- Ludogorets announced that it and Olivier Verdon had separated by mutual agreement on 5 September.
- The club described Verdon as one of its most experienced defenders.
- O. Verdon started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 06:29 · Europe/BucharestPFC Ludogoretsludogorets.com · 5 Sep 2026
The teams have met five times since March 2025.
Ludogorets won 5-0 at home in July 2025 and 2-0 away in November 2025. Septemvri's only win in this period came in the Cup in December 2025.
- 2025-07-19: Ludogorets 5-0 Septemvri Sofia (First League)
- 2025-11-23: Septemvri Sofia 0-2 Ludogorets (First League)
- 2025-12-15: Septemvri Sofia 1-3 Ludogorets (Cup)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 8

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ludogorets Razgrad

1.20fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Ludogorets' superior league form, home advantage, and dominant H2H record make them strong favourites.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ludogorets Razgrad or Draw

1.05fair 1.11

BetBugs 90% · Market 95.2%

−5.2ppshort

Ludogorets' unbeaten league record and Septemvri's poor away form make a home win or draw highly likely.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Ludogorets Razgrad

1.57fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Ludogorets' first-half dominance at home and Septemvri's slow starts make a home half-time lead likely.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Ludogorets Razgrad at half-time / Ludogorets Razgrad at full-time

1.67fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Ludogorets' ability to control matches from the start at home supports a HT/FT double.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Ludogorets' attacking output and Septemvri's defensive vulnerabilities support a moderate lean towards over 2.5 goals.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Ludogorets' tendency to score early at home supports a first-half goal.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets' superior league form, home advantage, and dominant H2H record make them strong favourites.
- Ludogorets are unbeaten in the league this season with 6 wins and 2 draws from 8 matches.
- Ludogorets have won 3 of their last 4 home league matches, scoring 6 and conceding 2.
- Septemvri Sofia have lost 4 of their last 8 league matches and sit 10th with a -6 goal difference.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Ludogorets have won 3 and drawn 1, including a 5-0 home win in July 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLudogorets RazgradEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets' unbeaten league record and Septemvri's poor away form make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Ludogorets have not lost a league match this season (6W, 2D).
- Septemvri Sofia have only won 2 of their 8 league matches.
- Ludogorets have lost only 1 of their last 15 matches in all competitions.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLudogorets Razgrad or DrawEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets' first-half dominance at home and Septemvri's slow starts make a home half-time lead likely.
- Ludogorets led at half-time in 40% of their recent matches.
- Septemvri Sofia trailed at half-time in 43% of their recent matches.
- Ludogorets have won the first half in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonLudogorets RazgradEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets' ability to control matches from the start at home supports a HT/FT double.
- Ludogorets have led at half-time and won the match in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Septemvri Sofia have trailed at half-time and lost the match in 3 of their last 8 matches.
- Ludogorets are unbeaten at home this season.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonLudogorets Razgrad / Ludogorets RazgradEstimated chance50%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets' attacking output and Septemvri's defensive vulnerabilities support a moderate lean towards over 2.5 goals.
- Ludogorets average 1.9 goals scored per match in recent form.
- Septemvri Sofia average 1.3 goals conceded per match.
- Ludogorets' last 5 home matches have produced 3, 2, 3, 2, and 1 goals (average 2.2).
- H2H: 3 of the last 5 meetings had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets' solid home defence and Septemvri's scoring struggles suggest at least one team may not score.
- Ludogorets have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Septemvri Sofia have failed to score in 3 of their last 8 league matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Septemvri failed to score in 4 of them.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets' strong home defensive record and Septemvri's away scoring difficulties make a home clean sheet plausible.
- Ludogorets have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Septemvri Sofia have scored only 3 goals in 4 away league matches this season.
- Ludogorets have conceded only 2 goals in 4 home league matches this season.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSeptemvri Sofia not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets' tendency to score early at home supports a first-half goal.
- Ludogorets average 1.0 first-half goals per match in recent form.
- Septemvri Sofia average 0.5 first-half goals conceded per match.
- Ludogorets have scored in the first half in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be more open in the second half, but the evidence is limited, so confidence is low.
- Ludogorets average 0.9 second-half goals per match (calculated from total and first-half averages).
- Septemvri Sofia average 0.8 second-half goals conceded per match.
- Ludogorets' last 5 home matches have seen an average of 1.2 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high yellow card averages, but card markets are volatile, so confidence is low.
- Ludogorets average 2.3 yellow cards per match in recent form.
- Septemvri Sofia average 4 yellow cards per match in recent form.
- Combined average of 6.3 yellow cards per match suggests a high-card game.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance48%