First LeagueFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Arda Kardzhali are likely to avoid defeat, but the best value lies in the first-half draw at 2.15 and under 2.5 goals at 1.83.
Avoid the heavily juiced double chance and under 1.5 first-half goals lines, which offer negative expected value.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
Market 46.5% · BetBugs 55%
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates and a history of being level at the break, with 60% of Arda's recent first halves ending in draws.
Market 54.6% · BetBugs 60%
Recent H2H meetings have been low-scoring (3 of last 5 under 2.5) and Arda's home matches tend to be tight, supporting the under.
Other edges · 2
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 78% · Market 83.3%
Arda Kardzhali are unbeaten at home this season and have not lost to Lokomotiv Sofia in the last five H2H meetings, making a home win or draw highly likely.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 56% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; the price already reflects the directional read and offers negative value.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 |  Arda KardzhaliPlay-offs playoffs | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5-3 | 7 |
| 10 |  Lokomotiv SofiaRelegation Playoffs | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4-7 | 2 |