Arda Kardzhali1Cherno More Varna1

HT 0–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 10–9On targetOn target 3–5CornersCorners 2–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 21:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Arda are favourites at home against a poor-travelling Cherno More side, but the odds on a home win or double chance offer no value.

The standout bet is over 2.5 goals at 2.15, where our 60% estimate beats the 46.5% implied probability for a +13.5 point edge.

Context

Arda Kardzhali sit fifth in the First League with 16 points from nine matches.
At home they have beaten Botev Vratsa 2-0 on 31 August, Lokomotiv Sofia 3-1 on 17 August, and Slavia Sofia 1-0 on 24 July, losing only to Botev Plovdiv 2-3 on 4 September. This home strength gives them a clear advantage against a Cherno More side that has struggled away.
- Arda's home record: 3 wins, 1 loss, 8 goals for, 4 against.
- Beat Botev Vratsa 2-0 on 31 August, Lokomotiv Sofia 3-1 on 17 August, and Slavia Sofia 1-0 on 24 July.
- Lost 2-3 to Botev Plovdiv on 4 September.
Cherno More Varna are 12th in the First League with five points from nine matches.
Away from home they have lost to Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-1 on 6 September, CSKA Sofia 1-3 on 30 August, CSKA 1948 1-4 on 14 August, and Botev Plovdiv 0-1 on 1 August, with a 1-1 draw at Botev Vratsa on 19 July. This away weakness is a major concern against an Arda side that is strong at home.
- Cherno More's away record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses, 3 goals for, 10 against.
- Lost to Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-1 on 6 September, CSKA Sofia 1-3 on 30 August, CSKA 1948 1-4 on 14 August, and Botev Plovdiv 0-1 on 1 August.
- Drew 1-1 at Botev Vratsa on 19 July.
The First League splits into championship and relegation groups after the regular season.
Cherno More are 12th with five points, three points above the relegation line of ninth place. Their poor away form makes this match critical, as they cannot rely on home games to secure safety.
- Cherno More are 12th with 5 points from 9 matches.
- The relegation line is 9th place, currently held by Botev Vratsa with 8 points.
- Cherno More's away record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses.
Cherno More Varna attacker A. Kolev has not started any of the last five team fixtures with available lineups, while Celso Sidney has started in the same position in all five.
The confirmed ankle injury rules Kolev out for three to six months, so Cherno More must structure its attacking line without him for this away match. Sidney's recent starts suggest he is the likely replacement, but the team's attacking options are reduced.
- Cherno More’s MRI assessment found two completely torn ankle ligaments.
- The club said Kolev would be out for three to six months after being injured against Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
- A. Kolev started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- Celso Sidney started in the same position in 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when A. Kolev did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 21:24 · Europe/BucharestPFC Cherno More Varna: Forward out for three to six monthschernomorepfc.bg · 8 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Arda Kardzhali

1.72fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 58%

0.0ppshort

Arda's strong home form and Cherno More's poor away record support the home side, but the odds already reflect that edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Arda's strong home form and Cherno More's poor away record, combined with the home side's better recent results, make them favourites.
- Arda home record this season: 3W 0D 1L, 8 goals scored, 4 conceded in 4 matches.
- Cherno More away record: 0W 1D 4L, 3 goals scored, 10 conceded in 5 matches.
- Arda overall form last 5 league matches: 3W 0D 2L; Cherno More: 1W 1D 3L.
- H2H last 5: Arda won 2, drew 2, lost 1 (including a 3-2 away win in May 2026).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostArda KardzhaliEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cherno More's away struggles and Arda's solid home form make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Arda home record: 3W 0D 1L; Cherno More away: 0W 1D 4L.
- Cherno More have failed to win any of their 5 away league matches this season.
- Arda have lost only once at home this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonArda Kardzhali or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of first-half draws for both teams makes a level score at halftime the most likely single outcome.
- Arda led at halftime in 20% of recent matches, trailed in 20%, drew in 60%.
- Cherno More led at halftime in 27%, trailed in 40%, drew in 33%.
- Both teams have a tendency to be level at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by an Arda win is a plausible scenario given their second-half home performances.
- Arda have drawn at halftime in 60% of recent matches but often win in the second half.
- Cherno More have drawn at halftime in 33% and often lose in the second half.
- Arda's home strength suggests they can pull away after a level first half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Arda KardzhaliEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in relatively high-scoring matches in their respective home/away splits, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Arda home matches average 3.0 total goals (8 scored, 4 conceded in 4 games).
- Cherno More away matches average 2.6 total goals (3 scored, 10 conceded in 5 games).
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 2, 0, 0, 3, 1 goals (average 1.2), but recent form suggests higher scoring.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score while also conceding, making BTTS a reasonable outcome.
- Arda have scored in 3 of 4 home matches; Cherno More have scored in 3 of 5 away matches.
- Cherno More have conceded in all 5 away matches; Arda have conceded in 3 of 4 home matches.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first-half scoring and conceding rates, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Arda average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded in recent matches.
- Cherno More average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal expectation is around 0.9, suggesting a good chance of at least one goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the overall scoring rates, there is a reasonable chance of at least two second-half goals.
- Arda home matches average 3.0 total goals, with many coming after halftime.
- Cherno More away matches average 2.6 total goals.
- No direct second-half split data available, but overall scoring trends support second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cherno More's high corner average and Arda's moderate count support a relatively high total corners line.
- Arda average 3 corners per match; Cherno More average 9 corners per match.
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams is around 12.
- Cherno More's high corner count suggests a high total corner line.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high combined yellow card averages make over 3.5 cards likely.
- Arda average 2.6 yellow cards per match; Cherno More average 3.3 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards is 5.9, well above 3.5.
- Both teams have shown disciplinary issues in recent matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%