Cavalry FC6Supra Quebec0

HT 2–0Sat 26 Sept 2026, 01:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–379%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 19–14On targetOn target 8–2CornersCorners 5–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 23:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Cavalry sit four points clear in the CPL and have not lost at home in the league, but Supra have scored in eight of nine away games and held them to a 1-1 draw in August.

Cavalry winning is the likeliest outcome, and at 1.65 it is worth backing, as are under 2.5 goals at 2.3 and a goalless first half at 3.3. Both teams to score at 1.65 and a Cavalry half-time lead at 2.05 ask too much.

Context

Cavalry FC posted on 23 September that forward Caniggia Elva has been called up by Saint Lucia for the Concacaf Nations League, two days before the club's home fixture against FC Supra du Québec. Elva was replaced in the 74th minute of Cavalry's most recent league match, the 1-1 draw with Forge, which makes him a live rather than fringe squad option. Cavalry have given no indication of when he departs or whether he will be available on Friday, so this reads as an availability risk rather than a confirmed absence.
- Cavalry FC announced on 23 September 2026 that forward Caniggia Elva had been called up to the Saint Lucia national team ahead of the Concacaf Nations League.
- Elva came off in the 74th minute of Cavalry's 1-1 draw with Forge FC on 19 September, with Owen Antoniuk replacing him.
- C. Elva started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 23:18 · Europe/Bucharest
Cavalry's 19 September draw with Forge, rescued by Owen Antoniuk's 90th-minute goal, kept them four points clear at the top of the CPL table. The Shield is the league's regular-season title, so that margin turns the remaining fixtures into a live race rather than a coronation, and the club's own channels have been framing the run-in that way. Cavalry have not been untroubled by Friday's opponents, having drawn 1-1 with FC Supra du Québec on 9 August.
- The Canadian Premier League reported on 19 September 2026 that Cavalry 'maintain their four-point lead in the CPL Shield race' after Owen Antoniuk's late equaliser against Forge FC.
- Cavalry FC published Tommy Wheeldon Jr.'s post-match comments on 20 September, in which he addressed the late equaliser and the race for the Shield.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 23:18 · Europe/Bucharest
Forge won the second leg 1-0 to take the semi-final 2-1 on aggregate, ending Supra's first Canadian Championship campaign one step short of the final. With the cup gone from the calendar, the CPL table is Supra's only remaining route to silverware and to a play-off place, which raises the weight of every remaining league point. The club's own preview framed the trip to Calgary simply as another big challenge where 'every point counts', so there is no public sign the exit has changed how they approach league games.
- Canada Soccer announced on 16 September 2026 that Forge FC edged past FC Supra du Québec to qualify for the TELUS Canadian Championship final.
- The Canadian Premier League framed the 15 September second leg in Hamilton as a night when 'history was at stake' for FC Supra du Québec.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 23:18 · Europe/Bucharest
Cavalry's home matches have tended to stay tight early and open up later in the evening.
Cavalry's home record is strong, but the goals that built it have mostly come in the second half, which makes an early lead less likely than the table might suggest and keeps the second half as the likelier period for the game to break open.
- In eight tracked home matches from 14 July to 19 September 2026, Cavalry averaged 0.5 first-half goals and 1.5 second-half goals, at 2.0 goals per home game overall.
- In the same eight home matches they conceded an average of 0.25 goals before half-time and 0.5 after it.
- Cavalry scored in all eight of those home matches and kept two clean sheets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Cavalry's strong home record and higher league position make them the clear favourite.
- Cavalry are top of the CPL with 50 points from 22 matches; Supra are sixth with 25.
- Cavalry have 8 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in 11 home league games, scoring 24 and conceding 7.
- Cavalry have won two and drawn one of the three head-to-head meetings this season.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCavalry FCEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.05
The read
Cavalry's home advantage and Supra's away first-half concession rate give them the advantage.
- Cavalry average 0.67 first-half goals overall and 0.5 at home; they concede 0.2 overall.
- Supra average 0.78 first-half goals away and concede 1.11 away.
- Four of Cavalry's last six matches were 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonCavalry FCEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cavalry's strong second-half home scoring makes them the stronger side after the break.
- Cavalry average 1.5 second-half goals at home and concede 0.5.
- Supra average 1.0 second-half goals away and concede 0.67.
- Cavalry scored three second-half goals in their 3-1 win over HFX Wanderers on 7 September.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonCavalry FCEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cavalry's strong home record and higher league position make them the clear favourite. Cavalry's home strength makes a draw less likely, but the last meeting and Supra's away scoring offer some support.
- Cavalry are top of the CPL with 50 points from 22 matches; Supra are sixth with 25.
- Cavalry have 8 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in 11 home league games, scoring 24 and conceding 7.
- The most recent head-to-head, on 9 August, finished 1-1.
- Cavalry have drawn 4 of 15 tracked matches and 3 of 8 at home.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCavalry FC or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cavalry's home advantage and Supra's away first-half concession rate give them the advantage. Cavalry's recent first halves have often been level, and Supra's away first-half record is mixed.
- Cavalry average 0.67 first-half goals overall and 0.5 at home; they concede 0.2 overall.
- Supra average 0.78 first-half goals away and concede 1.11 away.
- Four of Cavalry's last six matches were 0-0 at half-time.
- Cavalry average 0.5 first-half goals at home and concede 0.25.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCavalry FC or DrawEstimated chance85%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home and away goal averages point to a game with several goals.
- Cavalry average 2.0 goals at home and concede 0.75.
- Supra average 1.78 goals away and concede 1.78.
- The three head-to-head matches this season produced totals of 2, 3 and 1 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Both teams regularly find the net, and the head-to-head record supports both scoring.
- Cavalry have scored in 14 of 15 and conceded in 11 of 15 tracked matches.
- Supra have scored in 8 of 9 away matches and conceded in 8 of 9.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the 3 head-to-head meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cavalry's home scoring rate makes two or more goals likely.
- Cavalry average 2.0 goals per home match.
- Cavalry have scored in all 8 tracked home matches.
- Supra away concede 1.78 goals per game.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonCavalry FC over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Supra's consistent away scoring makes a Cavalry clean sheet unlikely.
- Supra scored in 8 of 9 away matches.
- Cavalry conceded in 6 of 8 home tracked matches.
- Cavalry kept 2 clean sheets in 8 home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSupra Quebec to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cavalry have scored in every tracked home match, making a Supra clean sheet very unlikely.
- Cavalry have scored in all 8 tracked home matches.
- Supra have kept 1 clean sheet in 9 away matches.
- Cavalry average 2.0 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCavalry FC to scoreEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Supra's away first halves are often active, and Cavalry can contribute at home.
- Cavalry home matches average 0.75 first-half goals in total.
- Supra away matches average 1.89 first-half goals in total.
- Cavalry's last six matches produced first-half goals in two of six.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half averages point to more than one goal after the break.
- Cavalry home second-half totals average 2.0 goals.
- Supra away second-half totals average 1.67 goals.
- Cavalry scored three second-half goals against HFX Wanderers and two against Forge in recent home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Total corner averages are below or just above the line, leaning under.
- Cavalry's tracked matches average 7.86 total corners; Supra's average 9.0.
- Cavalry home matches average 8.25 total corners (5.0 for, 3.25 against).
- Supra away matches average 9.4 total corners (5.2 for, 4.2 against).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Total shot averages for both teams are below the line.
- Cavalry's tracked matches average 23.4 total shots; Supra's average 25.9.
- Cavalry home total shots average 23.75; Supra away total shots average 24.0.
- Only four Cavalry home and five Supra away matches have shot data.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 29.5Estimated chance58%