Vancouver3Supra Quebec2

HT 2–2Sun 6 Sept 2026, 22:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–464%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 7–15On targetOn target 2–5CornersCorners 2–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 00:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Vancouver are slight favourites at home in a direct playoff race, but the 1.91 odds imply a 52% win probability versus our 45% estimate, so the outright win offers no value.

The strongest edge is Vancouver or Draw at 1.53 (implied 65% vs our 72%), making it the top actionable play. Avoid Over 2.5 goals and first-half Over 0.5, as both lines are overpriced relative to our model.

Context

Vancouver began the match in fourth, the final playoff position, while Supra trailed by five points with a game in hand.
The direct standings gap raises the incentive for both teams to pursue the result rather than treat the fixture as a routine league match. Vancouver can protect their playoff place, while Supra can close the gap with their extra match still to play. The fixture therefore carries immediate consequences for the final playoff spot.
- The CPL preview listed Vancouver on 27 points from 20 matches in the final playoff spot.
- FC Supra were five points behind with a game in hand, with eight Vancouver matches and nine Supra matches remaining.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 00:05 · Europe/BucharestCPL match previewwww.cplsoccer.com · 5 Sep 2026
Vancouver and Supra Quebec have met twice this season in the Canadian Premier League.
In the most recent meeting on July 17, 2026, Vancouver won 5-1 away despite having only 35% possession. They scored twice in the first half and added three more after the break. Supra Quebec had a player sent off, which likely contributed to the lopsided score. That result suggests Vancouver can exploit this matchup, but the red card makes it less predictive for this game.
- On 2026-07-17, Vancouver beat Supra Quebec 5-1 away.
- Vancouver had 35% possession but scored 5 goals from 12 shots.
- Supra Quebec received a red card in that match.
Vancouver midfielder E. Fotsing remained a fitness watch after a hip injury. He started none of the five recent team fixtures with available lineups.
His status adds uncertainty to Vancouver’s central-midfield selection and replacement cover. The club update placed him in rehabilitation before a September return, and the league’s projected XI omitted him. His availability therefore remained unresolved rather than confirmed for this match.
- Vancouver’s 26 August announcement said E. Fotsing was rehabilitating a hip injury sustained on Canada U-20 duty before returning to Vancouver in September.
- The CPL’s 5 September projected XI for this fixture did not include E. Fotsing.
- E. Fotsing started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 00:05 · Europe/BucharestVancouver FC transfer announcementwww.cplsoccer.com · 26 Aug 2026CPL match previewwww.cplsoccer.com · 5 Sep 2026
Vancouver sits 4th in the Canadian Premier League with 27 points from 20 matches.
Vancouver's recent league form is poor: they lost 1-0 to Cavalry FC on August 29, 1-0 to HFX Wanderers on August 22, and 4-0 to Atlético Ottawa on August 19. In those three matches they failed to score. This run suggests attacking struggles, though their last home game was a 1-1 draw with Pacific FC on August 15.
- Lost 0-1 to Cavalry FC on 2026-08-29.
- Lost 0-1 to HFX Wanderers FC on 2026-08-22.
- Lost 0-4 to Atlético Ottawa on 2026-08-19.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Vancouver

1.91fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 52.4%

0.0ppshort

Vancouver's home form (5W 2D 3L) and Supra's away struggles (3W 2D 4L) support the home side, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.53fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Supra's away games average 3.8 total goals and their defensive issues push the total over, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring records and defensive vulnerabilities, but the odds are slightly short of our estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half, but the odds heavily favor over 0.5 and offer no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vancouver's stronger home form and direct H2H edge, combined with Supra's defensive suspension, give them the edge in a high-stakes playoff race.
- Vancouver home record: 5W 2D 3L, 14 goals for, 9 against in 10 home matches
- Vancouver last 5 form: LLLDW (2W 1D 2L in last 5 overall, but 3W 1D 1L in last 5 home)
- Supra away record: 3W 2D 4L, 16 goals for, 18 against in 9 away matches
- H2H: Vancouver won last meeting 5-1 away, drew 1-1 at home
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonVancouverEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vancouver's solid home form and Supra's poor away record make the home side unlikely to lose, especially with Supra's defensive disruption.
- Vancouver home record: 5W 2D 3L (70% unbeaten at home)
- Supra away record: 3W 2D 4L (56% losing away)
- Vancouver last 5 home matches: 3W 1D 1L
- H2H: Vancouver unbeaten in last 2 meetings (1W 1D)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonVancouver or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vancouver's stronger first-half goal differential and Supra's tendency to trail at the break give the home side a slight edge in the first half.
- Vancouver leading at half time in 40% of matches
- Supra trailing at half time in 40% of matches
- Vancouver first half goals: 0.9 per match, conceded 0.3
- Supra first half goals: 0.7 per match, conceded 0.8
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostVancouverEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vancouver's home advantage and Supra's defensive issues could lead to a home win with Vancouver leading at the break, but the probability is modest.
- Vancouver leading at half time in 40% of matches, winning 40% overall
- Supra trailing at half time in 40% of matches, losing 47% overall
- Vancouver home win rate: 50%
- Supra away loss rate: 44%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostVancouver/VancouverEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Supra's away games are high-scoring and Vancouver's home games are moderate, but the playoff stakes and Supra's defensive issues push the total over 2.5.
- Vancouver home matches average 2.3 total goals (14 for, 9 against in 10)
- Supra away matches average 3.8 total goals (16 for, 18 against in 9)
- Supra overall average 3.7 total goals per match (27 for, 33 against in 19)
- H2H last meeting: 6 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and defensive vulnerabilities, making BTTS likely in this matchup.
- Vancouver home: scored in 8 of 10, conceded in 6 of 10
- Supra away: scored in 8 of 9, conceded in 8 of 9
- Supra overall: scored in 16 of 19, conceded in 16 of 19
- H2H: both teams scored in both meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and Supra's first-half defensive record is weak, making a first-half goal likely.
- Vancouver first half goals: 0.9 per match average, scored in 60% of recent matches
- Supra first half goals: 0.7 per match average, scored in 53% of recent matches
- Vancouver first half goals conceded: 0.3 per match average
- Supra first half goals conceded: 0.8 per match average
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to be more open as both teams push for a result, and Supra's defensive issues could lead to multiple goals after the break.
- Vancouver second half goals: 0.6 per match average (1.5 total - 0.9 first half)
- Supra second half goals: 1.0 per match average (1.7 total - 0.7 first half)
- Supra second half goals conceded: 1.2 per match average (2.0 total - 0.8 first half)
- Vancouver second half goals conceded: 1.0 per match average (1.3 total - 0.3 first half)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 4.3 corners per match, and the attacking nature of the game could push the total corners over 8.5.
- Vancouver average corners: 4.3 per match, opponent corners: 4.3
- Supra average corners: 4.4 per match, opponent corners: 4.4
- Combined average corners: 8.7 per match
- Recent H2H: Vancouver 6 corners, Supra 5 corners in last meeting
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of shots on target, and the open nature of the match could lead to over 7.5 total shots on target.
- Vancouver average shots on target: 3.3 per match
- Supra average shots on target: 4.7 per match
- Combined average shots on target: 8.0 per match
- Supra away shots on target: 4.7 per match
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Supra's high card count and the intensity of a playoff race match make over 3.5 total cards likely.
- Vancouver average yellow cards: 1.5 per match
- Supra average yellow cards: 2.6 per match
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.1 per match
- Supra away yellow cards: 2.6 per match
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance58%