Forge FC3Supra Quebec2

HT 2–2Wed 19 Aug 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–278%

Edges5–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 03:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Forge FC are clear favourites and should win or draw, but the odds offer little value on the match winner.

The best betting angle is both teams to score at 1.73, given Supra Quebec's consistent away scoring and Forge's occasional defensive lapses. Avoid the over 2.5 goals and first-half over 0.5 goals markets, where the implied probabilities far exceed our estimates.

Context

Forge home record: 5W 1D 1L in 7 matches.
- They lost 0-1 to Vancouver FC on 7 August and drew 1-1 with Saint-Laurent in the Canadian Championship on 8 July.
- Forge have kept only 4 clean sheets in 16 league matches.
Supra away record: 3W 1D 3L in 7 matches.
- They scored in 6 of 7 away matches, failing only in the 0-1 loss at Forge on 13 May.
- Supra average 1.8 goals scored per match overall.
13 May 2026: Forge 1-0 Supra at Hamilton.
- 5 July 2026: Supra 1-2 Forge in Laval.
- Forge kept a clean sheet in the home meeting.
The 2026 CPL playoffs admit only the top four regular-season sides.
- Forge are 2nd with 35 points from 16 matches.
- Supra are 5th with 18 points, still in the playoff hunt.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Forge FC

1.57fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Forge FC's superior league position, strong home record, and perfect H2H against Supra Quebec make them clear favourites, but the odds are slightly short of our estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average 1.8 goals scored, and Supra's away matches average 3.86 total goals, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Combined first-half goal average is 1.3, but the odds imply an 80% probability, far above our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Forge FC's superior league position, strong home form, and perfect H2H record against Supra Quebec make them clear favorites.
- Forge FC are 2nd in the league with 35 points from 16 matches, while Supra Quebec are 5th with 18 points.
- Forge FC have won both previous H2H meetings this season (1-0 home, 2-1 away).
- Forge FC home record: 5 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in 7 matches; Supra Quebec away record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses in 7 matches.
- Forge FC have a +13 goal difference; Supra Quebec have -6.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonForge FCEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Forge FC's low loss rate, especially at home, makes them highly unlikely to lose this match.
- Forge FC have lost only 3 of 16 league matches this season.
- Forge FC have lost only 1 home match this season.
- Supra Quebec have won only 3 of 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonForge FC or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Forge FC's stronger first-half performance gives them an edge, but the probability remains moderate.
- Forge FC lead at half-time in 47% of matches.
- Supra Quebec lead at half-time in only 27% of matches.
- Forge FC average 0.7 first-half goals vs Supra Quebec's 0.6.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostForge FCEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Forge FC's ability to lead early and maintain control at home supports this outcome, though it is not highly probable.
- Forge FC have led at half-time and won the match in 5 of 16 matches.
- Supra Quebec have trailed at half-time and lost the match in 4 of 16 matches.
- Forge FC's home dominance suggests they can control the game from the start.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostForge FC/Forge FCEstimated chance35%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have decent scoring records and Supra Quebec's leaky defense suggests a higher-scoring game.
- Forge FC average 1.8 goals scored and 0.9 goals conceded per match.
- Supra Quebec average 1.8 goals scored and 1.9 goals conceded per match.
- Combined average goals per match for both teams: 3.6.
- Supra Quebec's away matches average 3.86 total goals (13 scored, 14 conceded in 7 matches).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Supra Quebec's consistent scoring, especially away, and Forge FC's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring likely.
- Supra Quebec have scored in 13 of 16 league matches.
- Forge FC have conceded in 8 of 16 league matches.
- Supra Quebec have scored in 6 of 7 away matches.
- Forge FC have kept only 4 clean sheets in 16 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Supra Quebec's away scoring record suggests they are likely to breach Forge FC's defense.
- Forge FC have kept clean sheets in only 4 of 16 league matches.
- Supra Quebec have failed to score in only 3 of 16 league matches.
- Supra Quebec have scored in 6 of 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSupra Quebec to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and their H2H history supports early goals.
- Forge FC average 0.7 first-half goals per match.
- Supra Quebec average 0.6 first-half goals per match.
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.3 per match.
- In their two H2H meetings, there was at least one first-half goal in each match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score more in the second half, making over 1.5 second-half goals plausible.
- Forge FC average 1.1 second-half goals per match (1.8 total - 0.7 first half).
- Supra Quebec average 1.2 second-half goals per match (1.8 total - 0.6 first half).
- Combined second-half goal average: 2.3 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages are near the line, and Forge FC's high corner count could push the total over.
- Forge FC average 6.5 corners per match.
- Supra Quebec average 3.2 corners per match.
- Combined average corners: 9.7 per match.
- In their last H2H match, total corners were 11 (Forge 9, Supra 2).
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is just above the line, making this a coin-flip proposition.
- Forge FC average 6 shots on target per match.
- Supra Quebec average 2.8 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target: 8.8 per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card average is right at the line, suggesting a balanced likelihood.
- Forge FC average 2 yellow cards per match.
- Supra Quebec average 1.6 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.6 per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Supra Quebec's away form is inconsistent and Forge FC have dominated the H2H, making an away win unlikely despite attractive odds.

Prediction history

Forge FC has been highly reliable when projected to win

Forge FC has fulfilled 5 of 6 recent win predictions, a strong 83% success rate. Their average estimated probability was 64%, but they actually won 83% of those matches, exceeding expectations. The only miss came at home against Pacific FC with a 72% probability, ending in a draw.

Recent evidence for Forge FC6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Canadian Premier League