Supra Quebec1Forge FC0

HT 1–0Fri 28 Aug 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–722%

Edges1–325%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 04:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Forge FC are clear favourites with a perfect 3-0 H2H record and superior away form, but the double chance market (Draw or Forge FC) offers the best value at 1.38 with a +10 point edge.

Avoid first-half result and over 2.5 goals markets due to poor value and rotation risk from the upcoming cup semi-final.

Context

The Canadian Championship semi-final first leg is scheduled for Sept. 1, 2026.
- Forge and Supra will play each other four times between Aug. 19 and Sept. 15.
- Forge's official preview noted a clear squad-management consideration due to the fixture congestion.
Razzaghi has consistently rotated his squad throughout the season.
- The official preview highlighted Supra's rotation approach as a factor for this match.
- Supra are nine points behind fourth place, so league points are still important but may not override cup priorities.
May 13: Forge 1-0 Supra
- July 5: Supra 1-2 Forge
- Aug 19: Forge 3-2 Supra
Supra home record: 2W-2D-5L
- Forge away record: 6W-1D-2L
- Supra have lost their last two home league matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring records, but the odds are slightly below our estimate, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Forge's superior league position, away form, and perfect H2H record give them a clear edge, supported by Supra's poor home record and defensive struggles.
- Forge have won all 3 H2H meetings in 2026 (1-0, 2-1, 3-2).
- Forge are 1st with 41 points; Supra are 6th with 19 points.
- Forge away record: 6W-1D-2L; Supra home record: 2W-2D-5L.
- Forge average 1.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match; Supra average 1.8 scored and 2.1 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostForge FCEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Forge's strong away record and Supra's weak home form, the probability of Supra winning is low, making Draw or Forge FC highly likely.
- Forge have not lost to Supra in 3 meetings this season.
- Supra have only 2 wins in 9 home matches.
- Forge have lost only 2 of 9 away matches.
- Supra's recent form: DLLDW; Forge's recent form: WWLLD.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Forge FCEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first half is likely to be closely contested, with a draw being a plausible outcome given similar first-half scoring rates.
- Supra lead at half-time in 20% of matches, trail in 40%.
- Forge lead at half-time in 33% of matches, trail in 13%.
- In the last H2H, half-time score was 2-2.
- Both teams average 0.6 first-half goals.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Forge win is a plausible scenario given Forge's second-half strength and Supra's tendency to fade.
- Forge have won 13 of 18 matches overall.
- Supra have drawn 4 of 18 matches.
- Forge have come from behind to win in some matches.
- Supra have led at half-time in only 20% of matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Forge FCEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Supra's high-scoring games and the recent 3-2 H2H suggest goals, but Forge's strong defense tempers the probability to a slight lean over.
- Supra's matches average 3.9 total goals (1.8 for, 2.1 against).
- Forge's matches average 2.6 total goals (1.7 for, 0.9 against).
- Last H2H meeting ended 3-2 (5 goals).
- Supra have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records, and Supra's defensive vulnerability makes it likely both will find the net.
- Supra have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Forge have conceded in 7 of their last 15 matches.
- Supra have conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Forge have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Supra's consistent scoring and Forge's occasional defensive lapses make a Forge clean sheet unlikely.
- Forge have kept clean sheets in only 5 of their last 15 matches.
- Supra have failed to score in only 2 of their last 15 matches.
- Supra average 1.8 goals per match overall.
- Forge concede 0.9 goals per match on average.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSupra Quebec to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and the recent H2H had a high-scoring first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Supra average 0.6 first-half goals for and 0.8 against.
- Forge average 0.6 first-half goals for and 0.4 against.
- In the last H2H, first half had 4 goals (2-2).
- Supra have scored in the first half in 6 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is less predictable, but combined averages suggest around 1.5 goals, making this a coin flip.
- Supra average 1.2 second-half goals (total 1.8 - 0.6 first half).
- Forge average 1.1 second-half goals (total 1.7 - 0.6 first half).
- Supra concede 1.3 second-half goals on average (2.1 - 0.8).
- Forge concede 0.5 second-half goals on average (0.9 - 0.4).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages are close to the line, but Forge's higher corner count could push the total over, though confidence is low.
- Supra average 3.5 corners per match, Forge average 5.5.
- Combined average corners: 9.0.
- In the last H2H, total corners were 9 (3 for Supra, 6 for Forge).
- Forge have had over 9.5 corners in 4 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average is just above the line, but variance is high, making this a near coin flip.
- Supra average 3.8 shots on target per match.
- Forge average 5.0 shots on target per match.
- Combined average: 8.8 shots on target.
- In the last H2H, total shots on target were 7 (3 for Supra, 4 for Forge).
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average is just under the line, but the intensity of the match and recent red cards for Supra could push the total over.
- Supra average 2.2 yellow cards per match.
- Forge average 2.2 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.4.
- Supra have received a red card in 2 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 72% leaves no cushion vs our 82% estimate; the price already reflects the directional read and offers minimal value.

Prediction history

Forge FC has been highly reliable when projected to win

Forge FC has fulfilled 5 of 6 recent win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 64% and an expected fulfilment of 3.8. The only miss was a draw at home against Pacific FC, while all away predictions were successful. The current 58% probability sits within the historical range of 45% to 72%.

Recent evidence for Forge FC6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Canadian Premier League