Cavalry FC2Forge FC1

HT 0–1Sat 15 Aug 2026, 21:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges3–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Aug 2026, 08:31 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is Cavalry or Draw at 1.53 (70% vs 65.4% implied).

Over 2.5 goals at 2.05 is a moderate edge, but avoid Cavalry outright and Under 2.5—the market is mispriced on both.

Context

Cavalry home: 5W-2D-0L, 17 goals scored, 4 conceded.
- Forge away: 6W-1D-1L, 15 goals scored, 6 conceded.
- Cavalry's last home meeting vs Forge ended 4-1 in August 2025.
2026-05-31: Forge 1-0 Cavalry.
- 2026-04-18: Forge 0-0 Cavalry.
- Last five H2H: 3 matches under 2.5 goals.
2026-08-02: 0-0 draw at HFX Wanderers.
- 2026-08-07: 0-1 home loss to Vancouver FC.
- Forge scored 0 goals in those two matches.
2026-08-02: 5-0 home win vs York United, first half 1-0.
- 2026-07-29: 2-1 home win vs Supra du Quebec, first half 1-0.
- Cavalry average 0.6 first-half goals at home.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.40fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Despite both teams averaging 0.6 first-half goals, the odds heavily favor Over 0.5, but our estimate is lower, making this a negative value edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cavalry's unbeaten home record and superior goal difference give them a slight edge, but Forge's strong away form makes this a close contest.
- Cavalry FC home record: 5W-2D-0L, 17 goals scored, 4 conceded in 7 matches
- Forge FC away record: 6W-1D-1L, 15 goals scored, 6 conceded in 8 matches
- Cavalry FC overall goal difference +22 vs Forge +14
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCavalry FCEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Recent head-to-head meetings have been tight with two draws in the last five, and both teams have shown a tendency to share points.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, 2 Forge wins, 1 Cavalry win
- Both teams have drawn 2 of last 5 matches overall
- Cavalry home draws: 2 in 7; Forge away draws: 1 in 8
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Forge's excellent away record and recent H2H win give them a solid chance, but Cavalry's home strength balances the probabilities.
- Forge FC away record: 6W-1D-1L, 15 goals scored, 6 conceded
- Forge won the most recent H2H 1-0 on 2026-05-31
- Forge FC league position: 1st with 35 points
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostForge FCEstimated chance30%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cavalry's unbeaten home record and historical home advantage make them unlikely to lose, supporting a double chance of home win or draw.
- Cavalry FC home record: 5W-2D-0L (unbeaten)
- Forge FC away losses: only 1 in 8
- H2H at Cavalry: Cavalry won 4-1 in Aug 2025, drew 1-1 in Oct 2025
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCavalry FC or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Forge's strong away form and recent H2H success make them likely to avoid defeat, but Cavalry's home strength prevents a higher probability.
- Forge FC away record: 6W-1D-1L
- Forge won the most recent H2H 1-0
- Cavalry FC home draws: 2 in 7
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Forge FCEstimated chance60%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong attacking records, especially Cavalry at home, suggesting a decent chance of at least three goals.
- Cavalry FC home average goals scored: 2.43 per match
- Forge FC away average goals scored: 1.88 per match
- Combined average goals in H2H last 5: 2.2
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both defenses are solid, and recent H2H meetings have been low-scoring, keeping the under a viable outcome.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had under 2.5 goals
- Forge FC away goals conceded: 0.75 per match
- Cavalry FC home goals conceded: 0.57 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records, but their strong defenses and low-scoring H2H history make this a coin flip.
- Cavalry FC home: scored in all 7 home matches
- Forge FC away: scored in 7 of 8 away matches
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 2 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to keep clean sheets, and recent H2H matches often saw one side shut out.
- Cavalry FC home clean sheets: 3 in 7
- Forge FC away clean sheets: 3 in 8
- H2H last 5: 3 matches had at least one team fail to score
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over half a goal in the first half, and recent H2H meetings have seen first-half scoring.
- Cavalry FC first half goals per match: 0.6
- Forge FC first half goals per match: 0.6
- H2H last 5: first half goals in 3 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong first-half defenses, and some H2H matches were goalless at the break.
- Cavalry FC first half goals conceded: 0.1 per match
- Forge FC first half goals conceded: 0.3 per match
- H2H last 5: 2 matches had 0-0 at halftime
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, and recent H2H matches have seen second-half action.
- Cavalry FC second half goals per match: 1.4 (total 2.0 - first half 0.6)
- Forge FC second half goals per match: 1.2 (total 1.8 - first half 0.6)
- H2H last 5: second half goals in 4 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, but limited data on opponent corners makes this a low-confidence estimate.
- Cavalry FC average corners per match: 4.8
- Forge FC average corners per match: 6.6
- Combined average corners: 11.4
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average of yellow cards suggests a moderate chance of over 3.5 cards, but variance is high.
- Cavalry FC average yellow cards per match: 2.5
- Forge FC average yellow cards per match: 1.6
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.1
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Cavalry FC has struggled to convert win projections recently

Cavalry FC has fulfilled 3 of 7 win predictions, a 43% rate. The missed results include 3 draws and 1 loss, with no wins when the prediction failed. Their average estimated probability was 57.3%, but the current prediction of 40% sits below the historical range of 45-68%.

Recent evidence for Cavalry FC7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Canadian Premier League