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Supra QuebecHFX Wanderers

Sat 12 Sept 2026, 20:0012 Sept, 20:00

11Probabilities0Priced5Edges68%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 00:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Supra Quebec's short turnaround before a crucial Canadian Championship semi-final adds rotation risk, making most goal and result markets poor value.

The only positive edge is second-half goals over 1.5 at 2.10 (model 58% vs implied 47.6%), but it carries moderate risk due to potential game-state effects.

Context

Supra's level Canadian Championship semi-final three days later can affect recovery management and selection, while unresolved fixture timing adds uncertainty about the recovery window.

Supra Quebec sit 5th with 22 points, but their home record is worse than their away record.
They have won only 3 of 10 home games, losing 5. HFX Wanderers have also struggled away with 2 wins in 11, so this may be a low-scoring contest between two teams that are not strong in their respective situations.
- Supra Quebec home record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses in 10 matches.
- HFX Wanderers away record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses in 11 matches.
Supra Quebec host HFX Wanderers with a level Canadian Championship semi-final second leg against Forge in Hamilton scheduled for 15 September.
The short interval into a level knockout tie can affect Supra's recovery management and starting-selection decisions for this match. The first leg ended 1-1 on 1 September, so the return leg remains open and may lead Supra to rest key players or adjust intensity against HFX.
- Canada Soccer records the first leg between FC Supra du Québec and Forge FC Hamilton as a 1-1 draw on 1 September in Laval.
- Canada Soccer schedules the second leg in Hamilton on 15 September at 7:00 p.m. ET.
- The CPL competition calendar places Canadian Championship semi-final second legs between 15 and 17 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 00:03 · Europe/BucharestCanada Soccer — 2026 TELUS Canadian Championshipcanadasoccer.com · 11 Sep 2026Canadian Premier League — Competition Guidelineswww.cplsoccer.com · 1 Mar 2026
HFX Wanderers are 6th with 20 points and have struggled for consistency.
Their last five league results are LLWLL, including a 3-1 home loss to Cavalry FC on September 7. Supra Quebec have also been inconsistent with LWDLL, so both teams are under pressure to stop their slide.
- HFX Wanderers last five league matches: LLWLL.
- Supra Quebec last five league matches: LWDLL.
Current schedule listings conflict on whether this match is Friday evening or Saturday afternoon.
The unresolved date changes the recovery and travel window immediately before kick-off. It adds uncertainty but does not establish a specific football adjustment for either team.
- Ticketmaster lists FC Supra versus Halifax Wanderers at Stade Boréale in Laval on Saturday 12 September at 4:00 p.m.
- The CPL's French watch schedule lists FC Supra versus Halifax Wanderers on Friday 11 September at 7:00 p.m.
To watchSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 00:03 · Europe/BucharestTicketmaster — FC Supra schedulewww.ticketmaster.ca · 9 Sep 2026Canadian Premier League — Watch schedulefr1.canpl.ca · 11 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.55fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high goals-against averages and recent matches frequently exceed 2.5 total goals, driven by defensive vulnerabilities.

Both Teams To ScoreUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.53fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams consistently score and concede, making BTTS likely given their attacking output and defensive leaks.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, making at least one first-half goal likely.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Strong lean

Supra Quebec or Draw

1.45fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Supra's home advantage and HFX's poor away form support Supra avoiding defeat, but the odds already price this at 69% implied probability, leaving no value edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result4 outcomes · top 65%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are in poor form with weak home/away records, making a draw a plausible outcome despite Supra's slight home edge.
- Supra Quebec home record: 3W 2D 5L.
- HFX Wanderers away record: 2W 2D 7L.
- Supra recent form: LWDLL.
- HFX recent form: LLWLL.
BetBugs · Match WinnerDrawEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Supra's home advantage and HFX's poor away form support Supra avoiding defeat.
- Supra Quebec home points per game: 1.1 (3W 2D 5L).
- HFX Wanderers away points per game: 0.73 (2W 2D 7L).
- Supra won last H2H meeting 3-2 away.
BetBugs · Double ChanceSupra Quebec or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles with frequent draws at the break.
- Supra Quebec leading at half-time in 33% of matches, trailing in 33%.
- HFX Wanderers leading at half-time in 33% of matches, trailing in 13%.
- Both teams often level at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A low-scoring draw is possible given both teams' inconsistent form and defensive issues.
- Supra Quebec draw rate: 20% overall.
- HFX Wanderers draw rate: 24% overall.
- Both teams have drawn several recent matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoubleDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals4 outcomes · top 68%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high goals against averages and recent matches frequently exceed 2.5 total goals, driven by defensive vulnerabilities.
- Supra Quebec average 1.7 goals for and 2.1 goals against over last 15 matches.
- HFX Wanderers average 1.5 goals for and 1.8 goals against over last 15 matches.
- Combined average total goals in recent matches: 3.8 for Supra and 3.3 for HFX.
- Last H2H meeting ended 3-2 (5 goals).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently score and concede, making BTTS likely given their attacking output and defensive leaks.
- Supra Quebec scored in 13 of last 15 matches.
- HFX Wanderers scored in 12 of last 15 matches.
- Supra conceded in 13 of last 15 matches.
- HFX conceded in 12 of last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Supra Quebec average 0.9 first-half goals for and 0.9 against.
- HFX Wanderers average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.6 against.
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.6 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as both teams concede more after the break.
- Supra Quebec average 0.8 second-half goals for and 1.2 against.
- HFX Wanderers average 0.8 second-half goals for and 1.2 against.
- Combined second-half goal average: 2.0 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 55%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and combined averages suggest over 8.5 is plausible.
- Supra Quebec average 5 corners for and 4.3 against per match.
- HFX Wanderers average 4.4 corners for and 3.9 against per match.
- Combined average corners: 9.3 per match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce and allow a decent number of shots on target, supporting over 8.5.
- Supra Quebec average 4.7 shots on target for and 4.9 against.
- HFX Wanderers average 4.1 shots on target for and 4.5 against.
- Combined average shots on target: 9.1 per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Supra's high yellow card count pushes combined cards over 3.5.
- Supra Quebec average 2.6 yellow cards per match.
- HFX Wanderers average 1.1 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.7 per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Supra Quebec has been highly reliable when projected to see over 2.5 goals

Supra Quebec has fulfilled 3 of 4 over 2.5 goals predictions, a 75% success rate. The average estimated probability was 59.3%, with an expected 2.4 fulfilled predictions, indicating performance above expectation. The current probability of 62% is within the historical range of 55% to 62%.

Recent evidence for Supra Quebec4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Canadian Premier League