Over 2.5
Market 66.7% · BetBugs 72%
H2H pattern and both teams' recent high-scoring matches strongly support over 2.5 goals.
Canadian Premier LeagueFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
The quick rematch after a 3-3 cup tie points to goals: Over 2.5 is likely but priced tight, while Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.25 offers the best value (60% model vs 44.4% implied).
Ottawa's poor away form makes the match winner risky, and the double chance Supra or Draw has no edge.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 5
Market 66.7% · BetBugs 72%
H2H pattern and both teams' recent high-scoring matches strongly support over 2.5 goals.
Market 66.7% · BetBugs 68%
Both teams consistently score and concede, making BTTS likely.
Market 46.5% · BetBugs 55%
Ottawa's tendency to concede early and Supra's moderate first-half scoring support over 1.5 first-half goals.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 26.3% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of ~20%; vig too heavy for a directional Over play.
Supra Quebec has fulfilled 3 of 4 over 2.5 goals predictions, a 75% success rate. The current probability of 72% is above the historical range of 55-62%, suggesting stronger confidence than past projections. Notably, the only miss came at home against Pacific FC, while both away matches hit.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Supra Quebec | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 22-27 | 18 |
| 4 | Atletico Ottawa | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 25-29 | 24 |

