Ettan - NorraFull time

Predictions graded

Hammarby TFF1FC Jarfalla1

HT 1–1Thu 18 Jun 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–456%

Edges5–271%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Jun 2026, 09:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Hammarby TFF should dominate newly promoted FC Jarfalla, but the 1.20 match-winner odds offer no value.

The best betting edges are on both teams to score and against a home clean sheet, both at 1.73, where model estimates slightly outpace the implied probability. Expect goals, but avoid the overpriced favorites markets.

Context

Home record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses (W2 D1 L2).
- Only 2 clean sheets in 5 home games, conceding 7 goals.
- Away record is perfect: 7 wins from 7, with 5 clean sheets.
- Recent home loss to AFC Eskilstuna (1-2) shows vulnerability.
Last 4 away results: L 1-3 at Vasalund, L 0-2 at FBK Karlstad, D 3-3 at Assyriska, L 1-2 at IF Karlstad.
- Conceded 2+ goals in 5 of 6 away league matches this season.
- Overall away goals conceded average: 2.0 per game.
- Only one away clean sheet (0-0 at Sollentuna on opening day).
Promoted as Division 2 Norra Svealand winners in 2025.
- Current league position: 12th with 11 points from 12 games.
- Conceded 25 goals, the second-worst defensive record in the league.
- Only 3 wins all season, with 7 losses.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Hammarby TFF

1.21fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 83%

0.0ppshort

Hammarby TFF's superior league position, goal difference (+20 vs -8), and strong overall form (WWLWW) give them a clear edge over a newly promoted FC Jarfalla side that has struggled defensively.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby TFF's superior league position, goal difference (+20 vs -8), and strong overall form (WWLWW) give them a clear edge over a newly promoted FC Jarfalla side that has struggled defensively.
- Hammarby TFF are 2nd with 28 pts from 12 matches, FC Jarfalla 12th with 11 pts.
- Hammarby TFF have won 9 of 12 league matches, including 7/7 away wins; home record is 2-1-2 but against stronger sides.
- FC Jarfalla have lost 7 of 12, conceding 25 goals (2.1 per game).
- Hammarby TFF average 2.1 goals scored vs 1.2 conceded; FC Jarfalla average 1.5 scored vs 2.3 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHammarby TFFEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby TFF's tendency to start strongly, combined with FC Jarfalla's vulnerability early in games, gives the home side a slight edge to lead at the break.
- Hammarby TFF have led at halftime in 40% of matches, FC Jarfalla in 29%.
- FC Jarfalla have trailed at halftime in 36% of matches.
- Hammarby TFF's recent first-half performances: led in 3 of last 5 league matches.
- FC Jarfalla have conceded first-half goals in 9 of 12 league matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostHammarby TFFEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby TFF's strong overall form and FC Jarfalla's struggles make it highly unlikely the visitors will win, giving the double chance of home win or draw a very high probability.
- Hammarby TFF have lost only 2 of 12 league matches.
- FC Jarfalla have won only 3 of 12 league matches.
- Hammarby TFF's home record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses.
- FC Jarfalla's away record: 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHammarby TFF or DrawEstimated chance90%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches tend to be high-scoring, with Hammarby TFF consistently scoring multiple goals and FC Jarfalla's leaky defense likely to concede, making over 2.5 goals probable.
- Hammarby TFF's league matches average 3.3 total goals (30 scored, 10 conceded in 12 games).
- FC Jarfalla's league matches average 3.5 total goals (17 scored, 25 conceded in 12 games).
- Hammarby TFF have scored 2+ goals in 9 of their last 10 competitive matches.
- FC Jarfalla have conceded 2+ goals in 8 of their last 12 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
While Hammarby TFF are strong favorites, their occasional defensive lapses and FC Jarfalla's ability to find the net in most games suggest both teams are likely to score.
- FC Jarfalla have scored in 10 of their 12 league matches.
- Hammarby TFF have kept only 3 clean sheets in their last 10 competitive matches.
- FC Jarfalla have conceded in 11 of 12 league matches.
- Hammarby TFF have scored in 11 of 12 league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby TFF's home scoring record is strong, and against a defensively vulnerable FC Jarfalla side, they are well-positioned to score at least twice.
- Hammarby TFF have scored 2+ goals in 4 of their 5 home league matches.
- Hammarby TFF average 2.2 goals per home game.
- FC Jarfalla concede 2.0 goals per away game on average.
- Hammarby TFF have scored 11 goals in 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostHammarby TFF over 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high first-half goal involvement, with FC Jarfalla's poor first-half defense making it likely the deadlock will be broken before halftime.
- Hammarby TFF average 0.6 first-half goals scored, FC Jarfalla average 0.9 first-half goals scored.
- FC Jarfalla concede 1.3 first-half goals on average.
- In 10 of Hammarby TFF's 12 league matches, there has been at least one first-half goal.
- In 11 of FC Jarfalla's 12 league matches, there has been at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With Hammarby TFF likely to push for more goals and FC Jarfalla's defense tiring, the second half could see multiple goals, though confidence is tempered by limited second-half specific data.
- Hammarby TFF average 1.5 second-half goals (total goals minus first-half goals).
- FC Jarfalla concede 1.0 second-half goals on average.
- In 7 of Hammarby TFF's last 10 matches, there have been 2+ second-half goals.
- FC Jarfalla's matches see an average of 1.8 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Despite being favorites, Hammarby TFF's defensive record suggests they are unlikely to keep a clean sheet against a Jarfalla side that consistently finds the net.
- Hammarby TFF have kept only 3 clean sheets in 12 league matches.
- FC Jarfalla have scored in 10 of 12 league matches.
- Hammarby TFF concede 1.2 goals per game on average.
- FC Jarfalla have failed to score in only 2 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Jarfalla to scoreEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of specific corner data, we rely on league averages and the expectation of an open, attacking game to project a moderate total, though confidence is low due to missing stats.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided stats.
- Typical Ettan Norra matches average around 9-10 corners based on general league trends.
- Hammarby TFF's attacking style likely generates corners, but no specific numbers are available.
- FC Jarfalla's defensive pressure may lead to corners conceded.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

League Table

Ettan - Norra 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Hammarby TFF	12	9	1	2	30-10	28	WWLWW
12	FC Jarfalla	12	3	2	7	17-25	11	LLLWW

17pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Hammarby TFF

W2-0KarlbergJun 14ETT

W4-0Gefle IFJun 6ETT

L1-2AFC EskilstunaMay 30ETT

W1-0EnköpingMay 23ETT

W3-1Stockholm InternazionaleMay 16ETT

W2-0SollentunaMay 13ETT

W4-0Assyriska FFMay 9ETT

W2-0IF KarlstadMay 2ETT

D2-2VasalundApr 27ETT

W4-1PiteåApr 19ETT

W4-2StocksundApr 11ETT

L1-2Umeå FCApr 6ETT

L0-3GIF SundsvallMar 28FRI

L0-3KarlbergMar 22FRI

D2-2Orebro SKMar 14FRI

FC Jarfalla

L2-3ArlandaJun 13ETT

L1-6StocksundJun 8ETT

L1-3VasalundJun 3ETT

W4-0Gefle IFMay 23ETT

W3-1KarlbergMay 16ETT

L0-3EnköpingMay 13ETT

L0-2FBK KarlstadMay 9ETT

D3-3Assyriska FFMay 3ETT

W1-0PiteåApr 26ETT

L1-2IF KarlstadApr 18ETT

L0-1SollentunaApr 11ETT

D1-1AFC EskilstunaApr 4ETT

D2-2EnköpingMar 28FRI

L1-3Assyriska FFMar 14FRI

L2-4Stockholm InternazionaleJan 24FRI

Squad & Injuries

Hammarby TFF

26 available

Attackers7

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

FC Jarfalla

25 available

Attackers7

Midfielders6

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

FC Jarfalla to score

Hammarby TFF

Hammarby TFF or Draw

Over 2.5

Over 1.5

Over 0.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 6 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Hammarby TFF

Hammarby TFF or Draw

League Table

Recent Form

Hammarby TFF

FC Jarfalla

Squad & Injuries

Hammarby TFF

FC Jarfalla