Sirius2Degerfors0

HT 2–0Mon 14 Sept 2026, 17:20 Predictions graded

Predictions7–464%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 42%–58%ShotsShots 16–15On targetOn target 8–7CornersCorners 7–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 01:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Sirius are likely to win, but the odds are too short for value.

The best betting edge is over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.10, with a model probability of 60% versus an implied 47.6%.

Context

Sirius are first in Allsvenskan with 45 points from 20 matches, seven points clear of second-placed Djurgardens IF.
Their last five league results are WLLLD, including a 0-1 home loss to Malmo FF on 31 August and a 0-3 home loss to BK Hacken on 21 August. That home fragility matters because this match is at home, where they have already lost twice this season. Degerfors may see an opportunity to press a team that has struggled for consistency despite its league position.
- Sirius are 1st with 45 points from 20 matches.
- Their last five league results: WLLLD.
- They lost 0-1 at home to Malmo FF on 31 August 2026.
- They lost 0-3 at home to BK Hacken on 21 August 2026.
Sirius lead Allsvenskan on 45 points after round 20, seven ahead of Djurgården, while Degerfors sit 14th on 19 points in the relegation play-off place.
With ten matches remaining, Sirius need points to protect their lead and Degerfors need points to improve their safety position. The table gap does not guarantee how either side will approach the game, but it frames the stakes for both teams.
- The table published after round 20 places Sirius first on 45 points, seven ahead of second-placed Djurgården.
- The same table places Degerfors 14th on 19 points and identifies 14th as the relegation play-off position.
- The confirmed fixture listing identifies Sirius versus Degerfors as round 21, with ten matches remaining for Sirius.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 01:11 · Europe/BucharestSverigesfotboll.se Allsvenskan tablesverigesfotboll.se · 9 Sep 2026Sverigesfotboll.se Sirius fixture listsverigesfotboll.se · 11 Sep 2026
Degerfors are 14th in Allsvenskan with 19 points from 20 matches, in the relegation playoff position.
They have won only two of ten away league matches, losing six and conceding 17 goals. That away weakness is a major concern against the league leaders. However, their recent form is slightly better: they won 2-0 at home to Halmstad on 5 September and beat IFK Goteborg 3-0 at home on 16 August. They need points to climb out of danger, but their away record suggests this will be tough.
- Degerfors are 14th with 19 points from 20 matches.
- Away record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses in 10 matches.
- They lost 0-2 at IF Elfsborg on 29 August 2026.
- They won 2-0 at home to Halmstad on 5 September 2026.
The teams have met four times in the last two seasons, with one win each and two draws.
Sirius won 3-0 at Degerfors on 4 April 2026, but Degerfors won 3-1 at Sirius on 21 September 2025. That shows Degerfors can win at this venue. The most recent result favours Sirius, but the overall pattern is balanced, so neither side has a clear psychological edge from past meetings.
- Sirius won 3-0 at Degerfors on 4 April 2026.
- Degerfors won 3-1 at Sirius on 21 September 2025.
- The other two meetings ended 1-1 draws.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Sirius

1.38fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Sirius's superior league position and home form are already fully priced at 1.38, and our model estimate is slightly below the implied probability.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Sirius or Draw

1.11fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 90.1%

−2.1ppshort

The double chance is priced at 1.11, implying a 90% probability, while our model estimates 88%, leaving no value.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Sirius

1.78fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 56.2%

0.0ppshort

The first-half winner market is priced close to our estimate, with no meaningful edge.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Sirius at half-time / Sirius at full-time

2.00fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 50%

0.0ppshort

The HT/FT double is priced exactly at our model estimate, offering no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sirius's superior league position, strong home form, and Degerfors's poor away record make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Sirius are 1st with 45 points (14W-3D-3L), Degerfors are 14th with 19 points (5W-4D-11L).
- Sirius home record: 6W-2D-2L, 23 goals scored, 15 conceded in 10 home matches.
- Degerfors away record: 2W-2D-6L, 8 goals scored, 17 conceded in 10 away matches.
- Sirius won the most recent league H2H 3-0 away on 2026-04-04.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSiriusEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Sirius's strong home form and Degerfors's away struggles, the double chance of Sirius or draw is highly likely.
- Sirius have lost only 2 of 10 home league matches this season.
- Degerfors have won only 2 of 10 away league matches.
- Sirius average 2.1 goals per match overall, Degerfors average 1.3.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSirius or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sirius's strong first-half scoring and Degerfors's tendency to trail at the break make a Sirius half-time lead likely.
- Sirius led at half-time in 53% of their matches this season.
- Degerfors trailed at half-time in 60% of their matches.
- Sirius average 1.2 first-half goals, Degerfors average 0.5.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonSiriusEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sirius's ability to lead early and maintain control, combined with Degerfors's poor away form, supports a Sirius half-time/full-time double.
- Sirius led at half-time in 53% of matches and won 70% overall.
- Degerfors trailed at half-time in 60% and lost 55% overall.
- Sirius won the last league H2H 3-0.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonSirius/SiriusEstimated chance50%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sirius's high-scoring home games and Degerfors's defensive vulnerabilities on the road support over 2.5 goals.
- Sirius average 2.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match overall.
- Sirius home matches average 3.8 total goals (23 scored, 15 conceded in 10).
- Degerfors away matches average 2.5 total goals (8 scored, 17 conceded in 10).
- Last league H2H ended 3-0 to Sirius.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability recently, and both defenses have been leaky, making both teams scoring likely.
- Sirius have scored in 9 of their last 10 league matches.
- Degerfors have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Sirius have conceded in 7 of their last 10 home league matches.
- Degerfors have conceded in 8 of their last 10 away league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sirius's tendency to score early and Degerfors's first-half struggles suggest a decent chance of multiple first-half goals.
- Sirius average 1.2 first-half goals per match overall.
- Degerfors average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match.
- Sirius led at half-time in 53% of their matches, Degerfors trailed at half-time in 60%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sirius's attacking output and Degerfors's defensive fragility make second-half goals likely.
- Sirius average 2.1 total goals per match, with many coming after half-time.
- Degerfors concede an average of 1.5 goals per match overall.
- Sirius scored in the second half in 8 of their last 10 league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the expected attacking play could push the total over 9.5.
- Sirius average 5.8 corners per match, Degerfors average 5.1.
- Sirius home matches average 5.8 corners for and 5.2 against.
- Degerfors away matches average 5.1 corners for and 6.2 against.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sirius's high shot volume and Degerfors's defensive struggles should lead to a high number of shots on target.
- Sirius average 6.2 shots on target per match, Degerfors average 3.0.
- Sirius home matches average 6.2 shots on target for and 4.8 against.
- Degerfors away matches average 3.0 shots on target for and 5.4 against.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams commit a similar number of fouls and receive cards, making over 3.5 total cards plausible.
- Sirius average 1.6 yellow cards per match, Degerfors average 1.9.
- Sirius average 12.2 fouls per match, Degerfors average 12.2.
- Combined average yellow cards per match: 3.5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%