BK Astrio0Onsala BK2

HT 0–1Sat 19 Sept 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–285%

Edges5–271%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Sep 2026, 07:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Onsala BK are the clear structural pick against a bottom-placed Astrio side with one home win all season, and the away win at 1.65 plus the draw-or-away double chance at 1.33 both show positive model edges.

Avoid the short-priced goal markets like Over 2.5 and Onsala Over 1.5, where the odds already overprice a high-scoring game that Astrio's 0.6 goals-per-home-game attack may not support.

Context

Astrio are bottom of Division 2 Västra Götaland with 6 points from 21 games, and their recent run has kept them there.
In their last five league matches Astrio lost 1-5 at Kongahälla, 1-2 at home to Åstorp, 2-4 at Jonsered, 0-1 at home to Böljan and 0-2 at Lindome. They scored in only three of those games and conceded at least twice in four of them. Onsala's 2-0 home win over Galtabacks on 12 September is their only win in five, so the form gap is real but Onsala are not on a long run themselves.
- Astrio lost 1-5 at Kongahälla on 12 September 2026.
- Astrio lost 1-2 at home to Åstorp on 6 September 2026.
- Astrio lost 2-4 at Jonsered on 30 August 2026.
- Astrio have 6 points from 21 league games and sit 14th.
Astrio start round 22 bottom of Division 2 Västra Götaland on six points after 21 matches, with 13th-place Galtabäcks BK on 18 and 12th-place Åstorps FF on 21. Five fixtures remain in the 26-round season, including this one.
The points gap means Astrio need results across their remaining matches rather than a single win, so the survival incentive is unusually strong for their approach here. The size of the deficit also limits how much one fixture can change their position, which is the counterweight to that incentive.
- The current Division 2 Västra Götaland table lists Astrio 14th on six points after 21 matches; 13th-place Galtabäcks BK have 18 points and 12th-place Åstorps FF have 21.
- The competition runs for 26 rounds, leaving Astrio five fixtures including this match.
- Hallands Fotbollförbund described Astrio as hopelessly bottom on 11 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Sep 2026, 07:19 · Europe/BucharestDivision 2 Västra Götaland standingsdiv2.se · 18 Sep 2026Hallands Football Association weekly rounduphalland.svenskfotboll.se · 11 Sep 2026
The Division 2 Västra Götaland table has Astrio last on 6 points and Onsala 9th on 24 points after 21 rounds.
Astrio's record is 1 win, 3 draws and 17 defeats, with 15 goals scored and 51 conceded. Their home record is 1 win, 1 draw and 8 defeats, with 6 goals scored and 21 conceded at home. Onsala's away record is 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, with 11 scored and 18 conceded on the road. The gap means Astrio need results urgently while Onsala are playing for position rather than survival.
- Astrio are 14th with 6 points from 21 games, 18 points behind 13th-placed Galtabacks.
- Onsala are 9th with 24 points from 21 games, 18 points above the bottom.
- Astrio have scored 15 and conceded 51 in the league this season.
- Astrio's home record is 1 win, 1 draw and 8 defeats from 10 home games.
Astrio's season averages show 0.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded per game, while Onsala average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Astrio have conceded 51 goals in 21 league games, including 6 in a 0-6 home defeat to Torslanda on 9 August 2026 and 5 in a 1-5 loss at Kongahälla on 12 September 2026. They have also failed to score in 8 of their 21 league matches. Onsala's 1.5 goals per game is not a high figure, so the main driver here is Astrio's defensive record rather than Onsala's scoring rate.
- Astrio average 2.7 goals conceded per league game this season.
- Astrio lost 0-6 at home to Torslanda on 9 August 2026.
- Astrio lost 1-5 at Kongahälla on 12 September 2026.
- Onsala average 1.5 goals scored per league game this season.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Onsala BK

2.00fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 50%

0.0ppshort

Astrio trail at half-time in 60% of matches, but Onsala's own modest 27% half-time lead rate means the 2.00 price is close to fair.

Total Goals AwaywonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 1.5

1.33fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 75.2%

−15.2ppshort

Astrio's 2.1 home goals-conceded average supports Onsala scoring twice, but the 1.33 price demands far more certainty than the model provides.

Total Goals HomewonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5

1.36fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 73.5%

−11.5ppshort

Astrio's 0.6 home goals-per-game rate supports a low home total, but the 1.36 price leaves no cushion versus the model's 62%.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result6 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Onsala's mid-table quality and far superior defensive record face the division's worst side, whose home form (1 win in 10) and 2.7 goals conceded per game make an away win the clear structural edge.
- Astrio are bottom (14th) with 6 points from 21 matches, 1W-3D-17L, goals 15:51 (-36)
- Astrio home record: 1W-1D-8L in 10 home games, 6 goals scored, 21 conceded
- Onsala away record: 3W-2D-5L in 10 away games, 11 goals for, 18 against
- Astrio form LLLLL, conceding 2.7 goals per game across the last 15 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOnsala BKEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Astrio's single win in 21 matches and 6-goal home output make a home victory highly unlikely, so the draw-or-away double chance covers the dominant scenarios.
- Astrio have lost 17 of 21 league matches and are winless in their last 15 listed fixtures
- Onsala have avoided defeat in 12 of 21 matches (6W-6D) and sit 9th on 24 points
- H2H last 5: Onsala won 3-1 at Astrio in Sept 2025 and drew 0-0 in May 2026
- Astrio have scored just 6 goals in 10 home matches this season
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Onsala BKEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Astrio's strong tendency to be behind at the break (60% trailing) gives Onsala the edge to lead at half-time.
- Astrio trailed at half-time in 60% of their last 15 matches, leading in only 7%
- Astrio conceded 1.1 first-half goals per game
- Onsala led at half-time in 27% and trailed in 27% of matches
- Onsala scored first-half goals in 4 of their last 5 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonOnsala BKEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Astrio's repeated heavy defeats with late concessions point to Onsala winning the second half as the game opens up.
- Astrio conceded 2.7 goals per game overall, with heavy second-half leakage in recent heavy defeats
- Astrio lost 1-5, 2-4, 0-6 and 0-4 in recent matches, conceding late goals
- Onsala won 2-0 and 3-0 in recent matches, showing second-half control
- Onsala's away record includes 3 wins from 10
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonOnsala BKEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Onsala's modest away win rate and inconsistent form make a half-time-draw-to-away-win path only a low-confidence scenario.
- Astrio trailed at half-time in 60% of matches and lost 17 of 21 overall
- Onsala have won 6 of 21 matches, with 3 away wins
- Astrio have lost their last 5 matches (form LLLLL)
- Onsala's form is WLLLL, showing inconsistency
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw or Onsala BK / Onsala BKEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Astrio's heavy recent defeats and -36 goal difference give Onsala a realistic chance of a two-goal margin, though Onsala's modest away scoring tempers confidence.
- Astrio lost 17 of 21 matches, including 1-5, 0-6, 0-4 and 2-4 defeats
- Astrio's goal difference is -36, worst in the division
- Onsala won 3-1 at Astrio in Sept 2025
- Onsala's away goal difference is -7 (11 for, 18 against)
BetBugs · Asian HandicapwonOnsala BK -1.5Estimated chance45%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Astrio's leaky defence (2.7 conceded per game) combined with Onsala's 1.5 goals-per-game output pushes the total above 2.5 in most simulations.
- Astrio's last 15 matches average 3.4 total goals (0.7 for, 2.7 against)
- Astrio home games average 2.7 total goals (6 scored, 21 conceded in 10)
- Onsala's last 15 average 3.2 total goals (1.5 for, 1.7 against)
- H2H last 5 produced 0, 4, 4, 3 and 2 goals — three of five at or above 3
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Astrio's 0.7 goals-per-game scoring rate makes a home goal far from certain, while Onsala's recent clean sheets support the 'No' side.
- Astrio have scored 0 goals in 6 of their last 15 matches and just 6 in 10 home games
- Onsala kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 5 matches (2-0 vs Galtabacks, 0-0 vs Kongahälla)
- Astrio failed to score in the May 2026 H2H (0-0) and in the Sept 2025 home meeting they managed only 1
- Onsala concede 1.7 per game but Astrio's 0.7 scoring rate is the division's weakest
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Astrio's minimal home scoring output and Onsala's recent defensive solidity give a realistic chance of an away clean sheet.
- Astrio have scored 6 goals in 10 home matches (0.6 per game)
- Astrio were shut out in 6 of their last 15 matches
- Onsala kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 matches
- The May 2026 H2H at Onsala ended 0-0
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBK Astrio not to scoreEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Astrio's habit of trailing early (60% of matches) and conceding 1.1 first-half goals per game makes an early multi-goal half plausible.
- Astrio average 0.5 first-half goals for and 1.1 against across the last 15
- Astrio trailed at half-time in 60% of matches, leading in only 7%
- Onsala average 0.8 first-half goals for and 0.8 against
- Astrio conceded 2+ first-half goals in 4 of their last 15 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Astrio's 2.1 home goals-conceded average makes it likely Onsala score at least twice.
- Astrio concede 2.7 goals per game across the last 15 matches
- Astrio conceded 21 goals in 10 home matches (2.1 per game)
- Onsala average 1.5 goals per game overall and 1.1 away
- Onsala scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonOnsala BK over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Astrio's 0.6 home goals-per-game rate makes it likely they are held to one goal or fewer.
- Astrio scored 6 goals in 10 home matches (0.6 per game)
- Astrio failed to score in 6 of their last 15 matches
- Astrio scored 0 or 1 goal in 13 of their last 15 matches
- Onsala kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonBK Astrio under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A combination of Astrio's weak home scoring and Onsala's recent clean sheets makes an away win-to-nil a plausible but low-probability outcome.
- Astrio scored 6 goals in 10 home matches and were shut out in 6 of 15
- Onsala kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 matches
- The May 2026 H2H ended 0-0
- Onsala have 3 away wins from 10
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonYesEstimated chance30%

Prediction history

BK Astrio has matched all five recent Over 2.5 goal projections

BK Astrio fulfilled 5 of 5 Over 2.5 goal projections in this recent sample. The five matches produced an average estimated probability of 63, well above the expected 3.2 fulfilled predictions. All three home matches and both away matches went over the threshold, and the current 62 probability sits within the historical range of 60 to 75.

Recent evidence for BK Astrio5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jun·Division 2 - Västra Götaland