Division 2 - Västra GötalandUpcoming

IK KongahallaBK Astrio

Sat 12 Sept 2026, 12:0012 Sept, 12:00

12Probabilities0Priced7Edges70%Strongest

Strong leanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 23:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Avoid backing IK Kongahalla at 1.62 (implied 62% vs our 45% estimate) and the over 2.5 goals at 1.36 (implied 73.5% vs 55%).

The only marginal value is on over 3.5 goals, both teams to score, or over 1.5 second-half goals at around 1.88, each with a small positive edge.

Context

BK Astrio are bottom with five straight losses and no away wins, while IK Kongahalla sit 12th with a 12-point gap to the relegation line.

BK Astrio are 14th in Division 2 Västra Götaland with 6 points from 20 matches, 12 points behind 12th-placed IK Kongahalla.
Their recent form is poor: they lost to Åstorp 1-2 on 6 September, Jonsered 2-4 on 30 August, and Böljan 0-1 on 22 August. They have also failed to win any of their 10 away matches this season, drawing 2 and losing 8. This suggests they may struggle to get a result against a team that is also fighting to avoid relegation.
- BK Astrio are 14th with 6 points from 20 matches, 12 points behind 12th-placed IK Kongahalla.
- They have lost their last five league matches: Åstorp 1-2 (6 Sep), Jonsered 2-4 (30 Aug), Böljan 0-1 (22 Aug), Lindome 0-2 (14 Aug), Torslanda 0-6 (9 Aug).
- Their away record is 0 wins, 2 draws, 8 losses in 10 matches.
IK Kongahalla are 12th in Division 2 Västra Götaland with 18 points from 20 matches, 12 points above the relegation line.
They have won 4, drawn 6, and lost 10, with a goal difference of -15. Their recent form is mixed: they beat Landvetter IS 4-3 on 4 September but lost to Galtabacks 1-3 on 28 August. At home, they have won 2, drawn 3, and lost 5, scoring 11 and conceding 16. This suggests they are not dominant at home but have more stability than their opponents.
- IK Kongahalla are 12th with 18 points, 12 points above the relegation line.
- They have won 4, drawn 6, and lost 10, with a goal difference of -15.
- Their home record is 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses in 10 matches.
Kongahälla sit 12th on 18 points, one point above the drop zone, while Astrio are 14th on six points.
The shared urgency can affect late-game risk tolerance and the willingness to commit players forward if the score is level. Both teams may push for a winner rather than settle for a draw, potentially opening up the match in the closing stages.
- SVT Text's Division 2 Västra Götaland table on 10 September placed Kongahälla 12th on 18 points, Galtabäcks BK 13th on 17, and Astrio 14th on six.
- Hallands Fotbollförbund reported on 4 September that Astrio's outlook looked bleak while Galtabäcks BK were still fighting to retain their place.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 23:47 · Europe/BucharestSVT Text — Division 2 Västra Götaland tablewww.svt.se · 10 Sep 2026Hallands Fotbollförbund — Kulan 25halland.svenskfotboll.se · 4 Sep 2026
The teams met on 5 April 2026 in Division 2 Västra Götaland and drew 1-1, with Astrio at home.
They also drew 1-1 in a Division 2 play-off on 10 November 2024, with Kongahälla at home. These results suggest the teams are evenly matched in head-to-head encounters, but both have struggled this season, so the outcome may depend on current form.
- 5 April 2026: Astrio 1-1 Kongahälla (Division 2 Västra Götaland).
- 10 November 2024: Kongahälla 1-1 Astrio (Division 2 Play-offs).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result7 outcomes · top 70%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
IK Kongahalla's home advantage and BK Astrio's terrible away form (0 wins, 25 goals conceded) make the home side the most likely winner.
- IK Kongahalla home record: 2W 3D 5L, 11 goals scored, 16 conceded in 10 home matches
- BK Astrio away record: 0W 2D 8L, 8 goals scored, 25 conceded in 10 away matches
- IK Kongahalla recent form (last 5): W L L W L; BK Astrio recent form (last 5): L L L L L
BetBugs · Match WinnerIK KongahallaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
BK Astrio have not won away all season and IK Kongahalla have drawn 3 of 10 home games, so the home side avoiding defeat is likely.
- IK Kongahalla home record: 2W 3D 5L
- BK Astrio away record: 0W 2D 8L
- H2H last 2 meetings: both draws
BetBugs · Double ChanceIK Kongahalla or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often trail at halftime, but a draw is possible given their slow starts and similar first-half scoring rates.
- IK Kongahalla first half results: 33% leading, 47% trailing
- BK Astrio first half results: 7% leading, 60% trailing
- H2H last meeting first half: 1-1 draw
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
BK Astrio's second-half defensive frailty gives IK Kongahalla a slight edge to win the second period.
- IK Kongahalla second half goal difference: -0.3 per match
- BK Astrio second half goal difference: -1.3 per match
- BK Astrio concede 1.6 goals per second half on average
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerIK KongahallaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A halftime draw followed by a home win is a plausible but low-probability sequence given both teams' patterns.
- IK Kongahalla often draw at halftime (33% leading, 47% trailing)
- BK Astrio often trail at halftime (60%)
- IK Kongahalla have won 2 of 10 home matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoubleDraw / IK KongahallaEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
IK Kongahalla winning both halves is unlikely due to their inconsistent first-half performances.
- IK Kongahalla first half win rate: 33%
- IK Kongahalla second half win rate: 20%
- BK Astrio first half loss rate: 60%
BetBugs · Win Both HalvesIK KongahallaEstimated chance15%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
BK Astrio rarely lead at halftime, so IK Kongahalla or draw is a strong first-half double chance.
- IK Kongahalla first half: 33% leading, 47% trailing
- BK Astrio first half: 7% leading, 60% trailing
- BK Astrio have led at halftime in only 1 of 15 recent matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfIK Kongahalla or DrawEstimated chance65%

Goals5 outcomes · top 55%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high goals-against averages, especially BK Astrio (2.7 conceded per game), suggesting a high-scoring match.
- IK Kongahalla average goals per match: 1.2 for, 1.9 against
- BK Astrio average goals per match: 0.8 for, 2.7 against
- Combined average total goals: 3.1 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
IK Kongahalla's leaky defense and BK Astrio's occasional scoring ability make both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
- IK Kongahalla scored in 10 of 15 recent matches
- BK Astrio scored in 7 of 15 recent matches
- IK Kongahalla conceded in 13 of 15 recent matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede early goals, but scoring rates are modest, so over 1.5 first-half goals is only a marginal lean.
- IK Kongahalla first half goals average: 0.6 for, 1.0 against
- BK Astrio first half goals average: 0.5 for, 1.1 against
- Combined first half average total goals: 1.6
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
BK Astrio's defense often collapses after halftime, and IK Kongahalla tend to score later, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- IK Kongahalla second half goals average: 0.6 for, 0.9 against
- BK Astrio second half goals average: 0.3 for, 1.6 against
- Combined second half average total goals: 1.5
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams scoring in the first half is possible but not strongly supported by their first-half scoring rates.
- IK Kongahalla first half goals average: 0.6 for, 1.0 against
- BK Astrio first half goals average: 0.5 for, 1.1 against
- Both teams scored in first half in 3 of IK Kongahalla's last 15 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfYesEstimated chance30%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Prediction history

IK Kongahalla has been moderately reliable on Over 2.5 goals

IK Kongahalla has fulfilled 3 of 5 Over 2.5 predictions, with an average estimated probability of 59%. The current prediction of 55% sits within the historical range of 55–60%. At home, only 1 of 2 such predictions matched, while away 2 of 3 matched.

Recent evidence for IK Kongahalla5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Division 2 - Västra Götaland

IK Kongahalla0-0