IK Kongahalla0Onsala BK0

HT 0–0Fri 31 Jul 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–443%

Edges1–233%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Jul 2026, 22:41 · Europe/Bucharest

A high-scoring lower-table clash is likely, with both teams conceding regularly and the only H2H ending 2-2.

The best value lies in over 3.5 goals at 1.95 (9-point edge), while over 2.5 goals at 1.36 is heavily overpriced and should be avoided. Kongahälla’s new coach adds uncertainty, but the data favors goals over match outcomes.

Context

Jonas Björk left the club on 6 July, and Jesper Johannesson took over before the 17 July training-camp restart.
- This is Johannesson's first competitive league fixture, making Kongahälla's performance harder to predict.
- The new coach could bring tactical changes or a motivational bounce, but the effect is unproven.
Kongahälla are in the relegation zone and need points to climb out.
- Onsala can create a safer cushion with a win, making this a classic six-pointer.
- Both teams have completed 14 of 26 rounds, so the table pressure is real and immediate.
Kongahälla concede 2.1 goals per game on average; Onsala concede 1.9.
- In the last 15 matches, Kongahälla trailed at halftime in 47% of games, and Onsala led in only 20%.
- The 2-2 draw in April had four first-half goals, hinting at early action again.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

IK Kongahalla or Draw

1.54fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 65%

0.0ppshort

Kongahalla's home advantage and the motivational factor of a new coach, combined with Onsala's inconsistent away form, make a home win or draw likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar poor recent form and the only H2H was a draw; with Kongahalla's managerial change adding variance, a draw is a plausible outcome.
- IK Kongahalla home record: 1W-2D-4L; Onsala away record: 3W-1D-3L.
- Kongahalla's last 5 matches: 1W-1D-3L; Onsala's last 5: 1W-1D-3L.
- H2H this season was a 2-2 draw.
- Kongahalla under new coach Johannesson adds uncertainty.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kongahalla's home advantage and the motivational factor of a new coach, combined with Onsala's inconsistent away form, make a home win or draw likely.
- IK Kongahalla home record: 1W-2D-4L, but facing a team with only 3 away wins in 7.
- Onsala away form: 3W-1D-3L, but losses to top-half teams; Kongahalla is lower-table.
- Kongahalla's new coach bounce could improve home performance.
- H2H draw suggests Kongahalla can avoid defeat.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonIK Kongahalla or DrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Onsala's high draw rate at halftime and the H2H first-half draw suggest a stalemate at the break is likely, though Kongahalla's tendency to trail adds uncertainty.
- IK Kongahalla half-time results: 33% lead, 47% trail, 20% draw.
- Onsala BK half-time results: 20% lead, 27% trail, 53% draw.
- H2H first half ended 2-2.
- Both teams have high first-half goal rates but also concede early.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the balanced nature of the matchup and the H2H draw, a draw at both half-time and full-time is a low-probability but possible outcome.
- IK Kongahalla drew 5 of 14 matches (36%); Onsala drew 5 of 14 (36%).
- H2H was a draw.
- Both teams have similar form and mid-table/lower-table positions.
- No strong evidence of either team dominating.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently concede goals and have high over 2.5 rates in recent form, and the only H2H meeting this season was a 2-2 draw, supporting a high-scoring expectation.
- IK Kongahalla's last 15 matches: 0.9 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game; 73% of matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Onsala BK's last 15 matches: 1.5 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game; 67% of matches had over 2.5 goals.
- H2H on 2026-04-19 ended 2-2 with all goals in the first half.
- Both teams have negative goal differences and leaky defenses (Kongahalla -13, Onsala -3).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high rates of scoring and conceding, and the H2H match also saw both teams score, making BTTS a strong probability.
- IK Kongahalla scored in 10 of last 15 matches (67%), conceded in 13 of 15 (87%).
- Onsala BK scored in 12 of last 15 matches (80%), conceded in 12 of 15 (80%).
- Both teams scored in 60% of Kongahalla's matches and 67% of Onsala's matches over the last 15.
- The only H2H this season saw both teams score (2-2).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high first-half goal averages and the H2H saw all goals before halftime, indicating a strong chance of at least 2 first-half goals.
- IK Kongahalla averages 0.7 first-half goals scored, 1.1 conceded in last 15 matches.
- Onsala BK averages 0.9 first-half goals scored, 0.9 conceded in last 15 matches.
- In the H2H, all 4 goals were scored in the first half.
- Kongahalla trailed at halftime in 47% of matches, Onsala led in only 20% but both teams see early goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Despite low scoring in second halves individually, the combined average suggests over 1.5 second-half goals is possible, though confidence is low due to inconsistent patterns.
- IK Kongahalla's second-half goal difference: -0.8 per match (0.2 scored, 1.0 conceded).
- Onsala BK's second-half goal difference: -0.4 per match (0.6 scored, 1.0 conceded).
- Combined second-half average goals: 2.8 per match.
- Both teams tend to concede more in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
In the absence of team-specific corner data, the league average and the expected open nature of the match suggest a moderate chance of over 8.5 corners, but evidence is weak.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Division 2 Västra Götaland average corners per match is approximately 9.2 (league-wide estimate).
- Both teams have negative goal differences, suggesting end-to-end play that can produce corners.
- No specific corner stats to confirm, so confidence is low.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Prediction history

IK Kongahalla: Over 2.5 goals has been highly reliable

In IK Kongahalla's last 4 matches, Over 2.5 goals landed 3 times. The average estimated probability was 58.8%, with an expected 2.4 fulfilled predictions, so the actual 3 fulfilled predictions exceeded expectations. The current probability of 60% sits within the historical range of 55–60%.

Recent evidence for IK Kongahalla4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jun·Division 2 - Västra Götaland