Division 2 - Västra GötalandUpcoming

Onsala BKGaltabacks BK

Sat 12 Sept 2026, 14:0012 Sept, 14:00

11Probabilities0Priced4Edges85%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 16:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Onsala BK vs Galtabacks BK is a relegation six-pointer with value on the home win (1.85, +14pt edge) and the draw (4.33, +9pt edge).

Avoid Over 2.5 goals and Over 0.5 first-half goals, as the odds are heavily juiced against our model.

Context

Galtabäcks sit one point below the survival-playoff place and Onsala only three points above it, making this a direct late-season points contest.

Galtabäcks are 13th on 17 points after 20 matches, one point behind 12th-placed IK Kongahälla, while Onsala are 11th on 21 points. In Division 2 men’s football, 12th enters a playoff and 13th-14th are relegated.
The table positions create a concrete incentive for both teams to protect or pursue points, especially if the match remains level late on. Galtabäcks need a result to climb out of the direct-relegation places, while Onsala can widen the gap to the playoff spot. This fixture is therefore a meaningful late-season points contest rather than a routine mid-table match.
- Galtabäcks are 13th on 17 points after 20 matches; IK Kongahälla are 12th on 18 points and Onsala are 11th on 21.
- In Division 2 men’s football, 12th enters a playoff and 13th-14th are relegated to Division 3.
- Onsala host Galtabäcks in round 21 at Rydets IP A artificial turf.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 16:46 · Europe/BucharestGaltabäcks BK official match page and current tablewww.svenskalag.se · 5 Sep 2026Swedish FA competition regulations 2026www.svenskfotboll.se · 22 Jan 2026Onsala BK official fixture pagewww.onsalabk.se · 12 Sep 2026
Onsala BK are 11th in Division 2 - Västra Götaland with 21 points from 20 matches.
They have lost four of their last five league matches, including a 1-3 defeat at Västra Frölunda on 5 September and a 0-2 home loss to Dalstorps on 29 August. This poor run suggests defensive issues, as they conceded at least two goals in three of those losses. However, their last home win was a 3-0 victory over Böljan on 8 August, showing they can be competitive at home.
- Lost 1-3 away to Västra Frölunda on 2026-09-05.
- Lost 0-2 at home to Dalstorps on 2026-08-29.
- Lost 1-4 at home to Lindome on 2026-08-23.
- Won 3-0 at home to Böljan on 2026-08-08.
Galtabacks BK are 13th in Division 2 - Västra Götaland with 17 points from 20 matches.
They won 2-1 at home to Dalstorps on 5 September and 3-1 away to Kongahälla on 28 August. These results ended a run of five matches without a win. However, their away record is poor overall, with only two wins in ten away games this season.
- Won 2-1 at home to Dalstorps on 2026-09-05.
- Won 3-1 away to Kongahälla on 2026-08-28.
- Away record this season: 2 wins, 0 draws, 8 losses in 10 matches.
Galtabacks BK are 13th in the league table.
Their away record shows 2 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses in 10 matches, with 13 goals scored and 21 conceded. This poor away form contrasts with their recent away win at Kongahälla, but overall they have been vulnerable on the road.
- Away record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 8 losses in 10 matches.
- Goals scored away: 13, goals conceded away: 21.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.43fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Combined average total goals of 3.1 per match supports Over 2.5, but the odds imply a much higher probability than our estimate, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result6 outcomes · top 85%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and Galtabacks' poor away record give Onsala a slight edge, though their own form is inconsistent.
- Onsala BK have won 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Galtabacks BK have lost 8 of their 10 away matches this season.
- Onsala BK are 4 points ahead of Galtabacks BK in the league table.
BetBugs · Match WinnerOnsala BKEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Onsala's home resilience and Galtabacks' away struggles make a home win or draw the most likely double chance outcome.
- Onsala BK have avoided defeat in 6 of their last 10 home matches.
- Galtabacks BK have lost 8 of their 10 away matches.
- Onsala BK have drawn 4 of their 10 home matches this season.
BetBugs · Double ChanceOnsala BK or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first half is likely to be closely contested, with a draw being the most probable outcome at the break.
- Onsala BK led at halftime in 33% of their last 15 matches.
- Galtabacks BK trailed at halftime in 40% of their last 15 matches.
- Both teams have a high frequency of first-half draws in recent matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A first-half draw followed by a home win is a plausible scenario given Onsala's home edge and Galtabacks' away fragility.
- Onsala BK have drawn at halftime in 5 of their last 15 matches.
- Onsala BK have won 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Galtabacks BK have lost 8 of their 10 away matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoubleDraw / Onsala BKEstimated chance22%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given the inconsistent form of both teams, it is highly unlikely that either side will win both halves.
- Onsala BK have won both halves in only 1 of their last 15 matches.
- Galtabacks BK have won both halves in 1 of their last 15 matches.
- Neither team has shown consistent dominance across both halves.
BetBugs · Win Both HalvesNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Onsala are more likely to be level or ahead at halftime, making the double chance a solid option.
- Onsala BK led at halftime in 33% of their last 15 matches.
- Galtabacks BK trailed at halftime in 40% of their last 15 matches.
- Onsala BK have not lost the first half in 10 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfOnsala BK or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals5 outcomes · top 65%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring matches recently, with combined averages suggesting a strong likelihood of at least three goals.
- Onsala BK average 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match over their last 15 games.
- Galtabacks BK average 1.2 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match over their last 15 games.
- Combined average total goals in matches involving these teams is 3.1 per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides regularly find the net while also conceding, making a both-teams-score outcome likely.
- Onsala BK have scored in 11 of their last 15 matches.
- Galtabacks BK have scored in 11 of their last 15 matches.
- Both teams have conceded in 12 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, with a high probability of at least one goal before the break.
- Onsala BK average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match.
- Galtabacks BK average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.7 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is less certain, but the overall high-scoring trend suggests a moderate chance of over 1.5 goals after halftime.
- Onsala BK average 1.5 total goals per match, with 0.9 in the first half, implying 0.6 in the second half.
- Galtabacks BK average 1.2 total goals per match, with 0.6 in the first half, implying 0.6 in the second half.
- Combined second-half goal average is approximately 1.2 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring tends to be one-sided, making it more likely that only one team scores before the break.
- Onsala BK average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
- Galtabacks BK average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded.
- Both teams scoring in the first half has occurred in only 4 of Onsala's last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Prediction history

Onsala BK has fulfilled Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 recent matches

Onsala BK has fulfilled Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 59%, with an expected 3 fulfilled predictions, so the outcome aligns with expectations. However, all three fulfilled predictions came in away matches, while the only home match missed.

Recent evidence for Onsala BK5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Division 2 - Västra Götaland