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Predictions graded

New York City0New York Red Bulls1

HT 0–0Fri 18 Sept 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions2–820%

Edges0–50%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 16–10On targetOn target 4–1CornersCorners 6–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 04:35 · Europe/Bucharest

The Hudson River Derby is a tight playoff-race clash, but the market is overpricing NYCFC's home advantage and goal-scoring likelihood.

Our model sees no value in the home win (42% vs 58% implied), double chance (68% vs 80%), BTTS (55% vs 69%), over 2.5 goals (52% vs 70%), or first-half over 0.5 (60% vs 83%). Avoid these popular markets and wait for lineup news or live opportunities.

Context

The September 18 derby at Yankee Stadium carries direct playoff-race weight. NYCFC sit on 32 points and Red Bull New York on 30 before kickoff.
A win for either side changes the gap between two nearby Eastern Conference contenders, raising the incentive beyond the rivalry itself. Red Bull New York's latest victory returned them to the play-in race, so the result can reshape the standings immediately.
- Red Bull New York's official preview lists NYCFC on 32 points and Red Bull New York on 30 before the September 18 match.
- A September 13 report said Red Bull New York's win at Columbus left them level on points with ninth place and back in the Eastern Conference play-in race.
ReportedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 04:34 · Europe/BucharestRed Bull New York match previewwww.newyorkredbulls.com · 16 Sep 2026Ronald Donkor's late goal ends Red Bulls' winless runwww.pickshub.ca · 13 Sep 2026
New York City is 8th in the Eastern Conference with 32 points from 25 matches.
At home, they have 4 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, scoring 26 goals and conceding 20. Their recent home results include a 1-2 loss to New England Revolution on September 10 and a 0-0 draw with Nashville SC on September 4. This inconsistency may allow the Red Bulls to compete, though New York City's overall goal difference is positive.
- New York City's home record: 4 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses in 13 matches.
- Lost 1-2 at home to New England Revolution on 2026-09-10.
- Drew 0-0 at home with Nashville SC on 2026-09-04.
NYCFC attacker A. Martínez made a late appearance in the September 12 win at Real Salt Lake, his first since a right ACL tear on November 13, 2025. He has not started in the five recent fixtures with available lineups, while A. Ojeda started in the same position in all five.
His return adds a fit-again central attacking option after a long absence, but his readiness for a larger role remains unconfirmed. The team can vary its forward selection without assuming he will start or play extended minutes.
- NYCFC confirmed Martínez replaced Hannes Wolf late in the 2-0 win at Real Salt Lake.
- MLS reported that the appearance was Martínez's first since suffering a right ACL tear on November 13, 2025.
- A. Martínez started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- A. Ojeda started in the same position in 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when A. Martínez did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 04:34 · Europe/BucharestNYCFC match recap: Real Salt Lake 0-2 New York City FCwww.newyorkcityfc.com · 13 Sep 2026MLS: Alonso Martínez returned to action for NYCFCes.mlssoccer.com · 14 Sep 2026
New York Red Bulls are 10th in the Eastern Conference with 30 points from 25 matches.
Away from home, they have 4 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, with 15 goals scored and 25 conceded. Their recent away form includes a 1-0 win at Columbus Crew on September 12 and a 0-2 loss at Los Angeles FC on September 10. This defensive vulnerability may be exploited by New York City, though the Red Bulls have shown they can win on the road.
- New York Red Bulls' away record: 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses in 13 matches.
- Conceded 25 goals in away matches.
- Won 1-0 at Columbus Crew on 2026-09-12, but lost 0-2 at Los Angeles FC on 2026-09-10.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

New York City

1.72fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 58%

0.0ppshort

The predictor's 42% estimate is well below the 58% implied by the odds, so there is no value on the home win despite the modest edge in home form.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

New York City or Draw

1.25fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 80%

−12.0ppshort

The market price of 1.25 implies 80%, far above the predictor's 68% estimate, leaving no cushion for the home side avoiding defeat.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.45fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams show defensive vulnerabilities, but our 55% estimate is well below the 69% implied by the odds, so no value exists.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.43fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Combined home/away scoring rates suggest a moderate-scoring match, but the market has priced Over 2.5 as a strong favorite.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.20fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half, but the odds are too short to offer value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and slightly better overall goal difference give NYCFC a modest edge, but the rivalry's recent H2H balance keeps the probability below 50%.
- NYCFC home record: 4W-4D-5L, 26 goals for, 20 against in 13 home matches
- Red Bulls away record: 4W-3D-6L, 15 goals for, 25 against in 13 away matches
- Last 5 H2H: NYCFC 2W, Red Bulls 2W, 1D; NYCFC won last home meeting 2-0
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNew York CityEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
NYCFC's solid home unbeaten rate and Red Bulls' poor away form make the home side avoiding defeat likely.
- NYCFC home record: 8 unbeaten in 13 (4W,4D)
- Red Bulls away record: 7 losses in 13 away matches
- NYCFC last 5 home matches: 2W,2D,1L
BetBugs · Double ChancelostNew York City or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
NYCFC's better first-half goal difference and Red Bulls' tendency to trail at the break give the home side a slight edge.
- NYCFC leading at half-time in 40% of matches
- Red Bulls trailing at half-time in 27% of matches
- NYCFC first-half goal difference: +0.4 per match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostNew York CityEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The probability of NYCFC leading at half-time and winning is the product of moderate home win and first-half lead rates.
- NYCFC home win rate: 31% (4/13)
- NYCFC leading at half-time in 40% of matches
- Red Bulls away loss rate: 46% (6/13)
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostNew York City / New York CityEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities and scoring ability in their respective home/away splits, supporting a decent chance of both scoring.
- NYCFC home: 26 goals for, 20 against in 13 matches (avg 3.5 total goals)
- Red Bulls away: 15 goals for, 25 against in 13 matches (avg 3.1 total goals)
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 3 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined home/away scoring rates and recent H2H trend slightly favor a higher-scoring derby.
- NYCFC home matches average 3.5 total goals
- Red Bulls away matches average 3.1 total goals
- Last 5 H2H: 3 matches had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and the H2H pattern shows early goals are common.
- NYCFC average first-half goals: 0.9, first-half goals conceded: 0.5
- Red Bulls average first-half goals: 0.7, first-half goals conceded: 0.5
- Last 5 H2H: first-half goals in 4 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates are modest, making over 1.5 second-half goals less likely than the first-half market.
- NYCFC average second-half goals: 0.4 (1.3 total - 0.9 first half)
- Red Bulls average second-half goals: 0.4 (1.1 total - 0.7 first half)
- Combined second-half scoring average: 0.8 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages are near the 9.5 line, with Red Bulls' higher corner involvement pushing it close to even.
- NYCFC average corners: 3.4, opponent corners: 5.1 (total 8.5)
- Red Bulls average corners: 5.0, opponent corners: 5.9 (total 10.9)
- Combined average total corners: 9.7
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 4 total cards per match, and the rivalry intensity could push the total above 3.5.
- NYCFC average yellow cards: 1.9, opponent yellow cards: 2.3 (total 4.2)
- Red Bulls average yellow cards: 2.3, opponent yellow cards: 2.1 (total 4.4)
- Derby matches often see increased card counts
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 58% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read and offers negative value.

Prediction history

New York City has struggled to clear 9.5 corners in recent matches

New York City has fulfilled 1 of 4 Over 9.5 corners predictions, a 25% success rate. The average estimated probability was 51.3%, but only one match exceeded 9.5 corners. Notably, both home matches failed to reach the threshold, while the sole success came away from home.

Recent evidence for New York City4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Major League Soccer