Major League SoccerFull time

Predictions graded

Los Angeles FC2New York Red Bulls0

HT 1–0Thu 10 Sept 2026, 02:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 15–8On targetOn target 8–1CornersCorners 9–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 05:51 · Europe/Bucharest

LAFC are likely to win, but the 1.43 odds imply a 70% chance versus our 55% estimate, so there is no value in backing the home side.

The over 2.5 goals market is also overpriced at 1.38 (implied 72.5% vs our 60%). Avoid these markets and monitor Tillman's status before kickoff.

Context

LAFC sit third in the Western Conference with 36 points from 23 matches, but their recent league form has stalled.
They have drawn with DC United and Portland Timbers and lost to Colorado Rapids and San Diego in their last four MLS outings. That run has dropped them seven points behind conference leaders Vancouver Whitecaps. The lack of wins suggests they are struggling to turn possession and shots into results, which could make this home match more difficult than their table position suggests.
- LAFC drew 0-0 at DC United on 2026-08-29.
- LAFC drew 1-1 at home to Portland Timbers on 2026-08-23.
- LAFC lost 0-1 at Colorado Rapids on 2026-08-20.
- LAFC lost 0-1 at home to San Diego on 2026-08-16.
New York Red Bulls are eighth in the Eastern Conference with 26 points from 22 matches, but their away record is a clear weakness.
They have conceded 23 goals in 10 away games, including three at Philadelphia Union and two at Atlanta United FC. That defensive fragility on the road could give LAFC chances even though the home side is out of form. The Red Bulls have also lost five of those away matches, so they have struggled to get results outside New York.
- Red Bulls lost 1-3 at Philadelphia Union on 2026-07-22.
- Red Bulls lost 1-2 at Atlanta United FC on 2026-08-15.
- Red Bulls have conceded 23 goals in 10 away matches this season.
LAFC's home record is one of the better ones in the Western Conference, with seven wins from 12 matches.
They have scored 23 goals at home and conceded only 11, showing they are usually solid at their own stadium. However, they drew with Portland Timbers and lost to San Diego in their last two home matches, so their home advantage has not been enough recently. This match will test whether they can return to their earlier home form.
- LAFC have won 7 of 12 home matches this season.
- LAFC drew 1-1 at home to Portland Timbers on 2026-08-23.
- LAFC lost 0-1 at home to San Diego on 2026-08-16.
T. Tillman, a Los Angeles FC midfielder, started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups but was ruled out for the September 5 trip to Real Salt Lake with a leg injury.
His availability for this match remains uncertain, and if the leg issue persists, LAFC would have one fewer central-midfield option. The status report only covers the previous fixture, so his condition four days later is not confirmed.
- LAFC's September 5 player-status report listed Timothy Tillman as out with a leg injury for the match at Real Salt Lake.
- T. Tillman started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 05:49 · Europe/BucharestLAFC player status reportwww.lafc.com · 5 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Los Angeles FC

1.43fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 70%

0.0ppshort

The market heavily favours LAFC at 1.43, but our model estimates only a 55% chance of a home win, suggesting the price is too short and offers no value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Los Angeles FC or Draw

1.14fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 88%

−8.0ppshort

The double chance price of 1.13 implies an 88% probability, which is higher than our 80% estimate, leaving no value despite the high confidence in the outcome.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.38fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

NYRB's leaky away defense (2.3 goals conceded per away game) supports goals, but the odds leave no value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.17fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

Combined first-half goal average is 1.7, but the odds are extremely short.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
LAFC's strong home form and superior overall record, combined with NYRB's poor away defensive record, make a home win likely.
- LAFC home record: 7W-2D-3L, 23 goals scored, 11 conceded in 12 home matches.
- New York Red Bulls away record: 3W-2D-5L, 14 goals scored, 23 conceded in 10 away matches.
- LAFC overall points 36 vs NYRB 26; LAFC goal difference +14 vs NYRB -14.
- H2H: LAFC unbeaten in last 3 home meetings vs NYRB (2W,1D).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLos Angeles FCEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
LAFC's strong home form and NYRB's inconsistent away performances make a home win or draw highly probable.
- LAFC home record: 7W-2D-3L (75% unbeaten at home).
- NYRB away record: 3W-2D-5L (50% losing away).
- H2H: LAFC have not lost at home to NYRB in last 3 meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLos Angeles FC or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half scoring rates, and a draw at half-time is a plausible outcome given the balanced first-half stats.
- LAFC first-half record: 33% leading, 33% trailing, 34% drawing.
- NYRB first-half record: 47% leading, 33% trailing, 20% drawing.
- H2H last meeting: 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a LAFC win is a plausible scenario given LAFC's ability to push for a result at home.
- LAFC have drawn at half-time in 34% of matches.
- LAFC have won 10 of 23 matches overall.
- NYRB have lost 10 of 22 matches overall.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Los Angeles FCEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates, and NYRB's leaky away defense (2.3 goals conceded per away game) increases the likelihood of a high-scoring match.
- LAFC average 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match overall.
- NYRB average 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match overall.
- NYRB away matches average 3.7 total goals (14 scored, 23 conceded in 10 games).
- H2H last meeting: 2-2 draw.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability, and NYRB's defensive vulnerabilities away from home make it likely both will find the net.
- LAFC have scored in 10 of 12 home matches this season.
- NYRB have scored in 7 of 10 away matches this season.
- NYRB have conceded in 8 of 10 away matches.
- H2H: both teams scored in 2 of last 4 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, with a combined average above one goal, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- LAFC average 0.8 first-half goals per match.
- NYRB average 0.9 first-half goals per match.
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.7 per match.
- NYRB have led at half-time in 47% of matches, LAFC in 33%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is slightly lower on average, but NYRB's away defensive struggles could lead to more goals after the break.
- LAFC average 0.6 second-half goals (1.4 total - 0.8 first half).
- NYRB average 0.5 second-half goals (1.4 total - 0.9 first half).
- Combined second-half average: 1.1 goals per match.
- NYRB concede heavily away (2.3 goals per away game), often in second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, and the combined average exceeds 9.5, making over 9.5 corners a reasonable bet.
- LAFC average 6.4 corners per match, NYRB average 5.1 corners per match.
- Combined average corners: 11.5 per match.
- LAFC home matches average 6.4 corners, NYRB away matches average 5.1 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average shots on target is just above 8.5, suggesting a close call but leaning towards over.
- LAFC average 4.1 shots on target per match.
- NYRB average 4.5 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target: 8.6 per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around two yellow cards each, making over 3.5 total cards a likely outcome.
- LAFC average 1.9 yellow cards per match.
- NYRB average 2.1 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.0 per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 70% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Los Angeles FC has been highly reliable when projected Over 2.5 goals

Los Angeles FC has fulfilled 4 of 5 Over 2.5 goals predictions, a strong 80% rate. The average estimated probability was 60%, with matched predictions averaging 61.3% and the single miss at 55%. At home, they have hit Over 2.5 in 2 of 3 matches, while away they have hit in 2 of 2.

Recent evidence for Los Angeles FC5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer

Los Angeles FC4-0

Sporting Kansas City

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·65%→4 total goals

Matched

26 Jul 2026

Major League Soccer

Los Angeles FC4-0

Sporting Kansas City

Over 2.5 goals

65%probability

4 total goals

Matched

23 Jul·Major League Soccer

Los Angeles FC3-1

Real Salt Lake

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·60%→4 total goals

Matched

23 Jul 2026

Major League Soccer

Los Angeles FC3-1

Real Salt Lake

Over 2.5 goals

60%probability

4 total goals

Matched

18 Jul·Major League Soccer

LA Galaxy0-3

Los Angeles FC

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·65%→3 total goals

Matched

18 Jul 2026

Major League Soccer

LA Galaxy0-3

Los Angeles FC

Over 2.5 goals

65%probability

3 total goals

Matched

25 May·Major League Soccer

Los Angeles FC1-0

Seattle Sounders

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·55%→1 total goal

Missed

25 May 2026

Major League Soccer

Los Angeles FC1-0

Seattle Sounders

Over 2.5 goals

55%probability

1 total goal

Missed

18 May·Major League Soccer

Nashville3-2

Los Angeles FC

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·55%→5 total goals

Matched

18 May 2026

Major League Soccer

Nashville3-2

Los Angeles FC

Over 2.5 goals

55%probability

5 total goals

Matched

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 1W

D2-2Los Angeles FCvNew York Red BullsApr 21, 2024MAJ

W2-0Los Angeles FCvNew York Red BullsJun 26, 2022MAJ

W4-2Los Angeles FCvNew York Red BullsAug 12, 2019MAJ

L2-1New York Red BullsvLos Angeles FCAug 5, 2018MAJ

3.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Los Angeles FC Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	23	10	6	7	36-22	36	DDLLD
8	New York Red Bulls Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)	22	7	5	10	32-46	26	LDLLW