Seattle Sounders0New York Red Bulls0

HT 0–0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 20–9On targetOn target 6–4CornersCorners 9–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 05:51 · Europe/Bucharest

The market heavily favors Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes, and Over 0.5 first-half goals, but the model estimates significantly lower probabilities, creating negative edges.

The only slight value is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.88, but it's marginal. Avoid the overpriced goal markets and monitor Seattle's defensive injury news before kickoff.

Context

Seattle Sounders sit 12th in the Western Conference with 26 points from 21 matches.
Their recent home form is poor: losses to Austin (1-2 on August 20), Vancouver Whitecaps (0-2 on August 17), and Guadalajara Chivas (1-2 on August 13). In those matches they conceded at least two goals and struggled to create chances, with only five shots against Vancouver. This suggests defensive vulnerabilities at home that New York Red Bulls could exploit, though Seattle did draw 2-2 with Chicago Fire in their most recent home game on August 29.
- Lost 1-2 to Austin at home on 2026-08-20.
- Lost 0-2 to Vancouver Whitecaps at home on 2026-08-17.
- Lost 1-2 to Guadalajara Chivas at home on 2026-08-13.
Seattle Sounders midfielder C. Roldan returned as a substitute against Chicago on August 29, his first action since May 24.
His availability gives Seattle an additional midfield selection option for the Red Bulls visit. The club said his absence followed a quad injury suffered while with the United States at the 2026 World Cup.
- Seattle said Roldan entered in the 57th minute against Chicago on August 29, his first action since May 24.
- The club said his absence followed a quad injury suffered while with the United States at the 2026 World Cup.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 05:50 · Europe/BucharestSounders FC match recap: Seattle 2-2 Chicagowww.soundersfc.com · 29 Aug 2026
New York Red Bulls are 8th in the Eastern Conference with 26 points from 22 matches.
Their away record is 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with 14 goals scored and 23 conceded. Recent away results include a 1-2 loss at Atlanta United on August 15 and a 1-3 loss at Philadelphia Union on July 22. This indicates defensive issues on the road, though they did win 2-1 at Sporting Kansas City on May 24. Seattle's home struggles may be offset by New York's own away difficulties.
- Away record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses in 10 matches.
- Lost 1-2 at Atlanta United on 2026-08-15.
- Lost 1-3 at Philadelphia Union on 2026-07-22.
Seattle's defensive availability remains unresolved for this fixture.
The league's August 29 report listed Yeimar Gómez Andrade out with a calf issue and Jackson Ragen out with a knee issue. If either remains unavailable, Seattle have fewer options to select and rotate in their defensive unit.
- MLS listed Yeimar Gómez Andrade out with a calf issue for Seattle’s August 29 match.
- The same report listed Jackson Ragen out with a knee issue.
To watchSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 05:50 · Europe/BucharestMLS Player Status Report: Matchday 23www.mlssoccer.com · 29 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.35fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Our model estimates only 58% for Over 2.5, but the odds of 1.35 imply 74.1%, leaving a negative edge of 16 points.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.35fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Our model estimates 60% for both teams scoring, but the odds of 1.35 imply 74.1%, a negative edge of 14 points.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.18fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Our model estimates 65% for at least one first-half goal, but the odds of 1.18 imply 84.7%, a negative edge of 20 points.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Seattle's home advantage and strong historical H2H at home give them a slight edge, but recent poor form tempers confidence.
- Seattle home record: 4W-2D-4L, 16 goals for, 18 against.
- New York away record: 3W-2D-5L, 14 goals for, 23 against.
- Seattle has won 4 of last 5 H2H meetings at home.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSeattle SoundersEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Seattle's home form and New York's poor away record make a home win or draw the most likely double chance outcome.
- Seattle home record: 4W-2D-4L.
- New York away record: 3W-2D-5L.
- Seattle has avoided defeat in 6 of 10 home matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSeattle Sounders or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the mixed first-half performances, a draw at half time is a plausible outcome.
- Seattle leading at half time in 13% of matches, trailing in 40%.
- New York leading at half time in 47% of matches, trailing in 33%.
- Both teams have a high frequency of drawing at half time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half time and full time is a low-probability but possible outcome given the teams' recent form.
- Seattle has drawn 5 of 21 matches overall.
- New York has drawn 5 of 22 matches overall.
- Both teams have a tendency to draw at half time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, with Seattle conceding heavily and New York's matches averaging over 3 total goals, supporting Over 2.5.
- Seattle averages 1.0 goals for and 1.9 goals against over last 15 matches.
- New York averages 1.4 goals for and 2.0 goals against over last 15 matches.
- Combined average total goals in these teams' recent matches is 3.15.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly find the net while also conceding, making both teams scoring likely.
- Seattle has scored in 11 of last 15 matches.
- New York has scored in 12 of last 15 matches.
- Both teams have conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches combined.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Seattle first half goals average: 0.5, first half goals conceded average: 0.7.
- New York first half goals average: 0.9, first half goals conceded average: 0.7.
- Combined first half goal average is 1.4.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have seen more goals in these teams' recent matches, supporting Over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Seattle averages 1.0 goals per match overall, with many coming in second half.
- New York averages 1.4 goals per match overall.
- Combined second half goal average is approximately 1.7.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average is close to the line, making Over 9.5 a marginal lean.
- Seattle averages 4.2 corners per match, New York averages 5.1.
- Combined average corners per match is 9.3.
- Recent matches have seen slightly higher corner counts.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average of yellow cards is just above the line, and both teams are prone to disciplinary actions.
- Seattle averages 1.5 yellow cards per match, New York averages 2.1.
- Combined average yellow cards is 3.6.
- Both teams have had matches with multiple cards recently.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%