New York Red Bulls1Philadelphia Union3

HT 0–1Sat 29 Aug 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 59%–41%ShotsShots 11–19On targetOn target 4–7CornersCorners 4–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Aug 2026, 16:39 · Europe/Bucharest

New York Red Bulls offer slight value at home against a Philadelphia side with poor away form, with the home win (2.90) and double chance (1.70) presenting small edges.

Avoid Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes, as the odds are heavily juiced relative to model estimates.

Context

Philadelphia Union have won four of the last five meetings against New York Red Bulls, including the most recent match.
On July 22, 2026, Philadelphia Union beat New York Red Bulls 3-1 at home. That result continues a strong recent run for Philadelphia in this matchup, with four wins in the last five games. However, this match is at New York, where the Red Bulls won the last meeting between the teams in August 2025.
- Philadelphia Union won 3-1 at home on July 22, 2026.
- Philadelphia Union have won four of the last five head-to-head matches.
- New York Red Bulls won 1-0 at home on August 16, 2025.
Philadelphia Union midfielder Cavan Sullivan has a goal or assist in each of his past three league matches.
That current run gives Philadelphia a live creative and finishing route in Harrison, with his set-piece goal against Austin on August 23 showing a direct scoring threat. The streak is short, so it reflects recent form rather than a long-term pattern.
- Philadelphia Union's match preview says Sullivan has a goal or assist in three straight league matches.
- The same preview says a contribution against New York would make him the first 16-year-old to do so in four consecutive regular-season matches.
- MLS highlighted Sullivan scoring from a set piece against Austin on August 23.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 10:46 · Europe/BucharestPhiladelphia Union match previewwww.philadelphiaunion.com · 28 Aug 2026MLSsoccer.com match analysiswww.mlssoccer.com · 28 Aug 2026
New York Red Bulls are 8th in the Eastern Conference with 26 points from 21 matches.
New York Red Bulls have lost three of their last four MLS matches. They drew 1-1 with Chicago Fire on August 22, lost 1-0 to Nashville SC on August 19, and lost 2-1 at Atlanta United FC on August 15. This poor run has dropped them to 8th place, just above the playoff line.
- Drew 1-1 with Chicago Fire on August 22, 2026.
- Lost 1-0 to Nashville SC on August 19, 2026.
- Lost 2-1 at Atlanta United FC on August 15, 2026.
Philadelphia Union centre-back Neil Pierre has led MLS defenders for goals since the World Cup break.
His 6-foot-5 aerial presence gives Philadelphia an attacking route from defensive positions, especially on restarts and second balls. The sample covers only the post-break period, so the scoring rate may not be sustained.
- Philadelphia Union's match preview identifies Pierre as MLS's top-scoring defender since the World Cup break.
- MLSsoccer.com describes Pierre as a 6-foot-5 centre-back with aerial prowess.
- Philadelphia's official preview says Pierre and Sullivan have combined for eight goal contributions during the club's past six matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 10:46 · Europe/BucharestPhiladelphia Union match previewwww.philadelphiaunion.com · 28 Aug 2026MLSsoccer.com match analysiswww.mlssoccer.com · 28 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and Philadelphia's poor away form give New York a slight edge, but recent H2H and form are mixed, so confidence is medium.
- New York Red Bulls home record: 4W-3D-4L, 17 goals for, 20 against in 11 matches
- Philadelphia Union away record: 2W-2D-7L, 19 goals for, 27 against in 11 matches
- H2H last 5: New York won 2, Philadelphia won 3; all home teams won in last 4 meetings
- New York Red Bulls form last 5: D-L-L-W-L; Philadelphia Union form last 5: D-D-W-W-W
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNew York Red BullsEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
New York's home unbeaten rate and Philadelphia's away struggles support a double chance for the home side.
- New York Red Bulls home record: 4W-3D-4L (64% unbeaten at home)
- Philadelphia Union away record: 2W-2D-7L (only 36% unbeaten away)
- H2H last 5: New York won 2, drew 0, lost 3; but home teams won last 4
BetBugs · Double ChancelostNew York Red Bulls or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often trail at half-time, but a draw is a common outcome given the stats.
- New York Red Bulls leading at half-time in 47% of matches, trailing in 33%
- Philadelphia Union leading at half-time in 20% of matches, trailing in 47%
- H2H last 5 first-half results: 2 draws, 2 home leads, 1 away lead
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Draws are possible but not highly likely, and H2H shows no recent draws.
- New York Red Bulls drew 5 of 21 matches (24%)
- Philadelphia Union drew 6 of 21 matches (29%)
- H2H last 5: no draws in full time
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance15%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high goals against averages and recent H2H has seen goals, supporting over 2.5.
- New York Red Bulls average 1.4 goals for and 2.1 goals against per match
- Philadelphia Union average 1.7 goals for and 1.8 goals against per match
- Combined average total goals in matches involving these teams: 3.5 (NY) and 3.5 (PHI)
- H2H last 5: 3, 1, 5, 2, 2 goals; 3 of 5 over 2.5
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly score and concede, making BTTS likely.
- New York Red Bulls scored in 12 of 15 recent matches (80%)
- Philadelphia Union scored in 11 of 15 recent matches (73%)
- New York Red Bulls conceded in 13 of 15 recent matches (87%)
- Philadelphia Union conceded in 12 of 15 recent matches (80%)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring averages are moderate, but over 1.5 is plausible given both teams' defensive vulnerabilities.
- New York Red Bulls average 0.9 first-half goals for and 0.8 against
- Philadelphia Union average 0.7 first-half goals for and 1.1 against
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.75 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to produce more goals as both teams push, and the combined average is near the line.
- New York Red Bulls average 1.4 total goals per match, with 0.9 in first half, implying 0.5 in second half
- Philadelphia Union average 1.7 total goals per match, with 0.7 in first half, implying 1.0 in second half
- Combined second-half goal average: 1.5 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate and concede a moderate number of corners, pushing the total near the line.
- New York Red Bulls average 5.4 corners per match, concede 4.4 (opponent corners)
- Philadelphia Union average 5.7 corners per match, concede 4.3
- Combined average corners: 10.1 per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card averages are close to the line, and rivalry matches often see more bookings.
- New York Red Bulls average 2.3 yellow cards per match, opponents 1.9
- Philadelphia Union average 2.2 yellow cards per match, opponents 1.9
- Combined average cards: 4.2 per match
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%