Cincinnati2New York City1

HT 1–1Wed 19 Aug 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 14–16On targetOn target 6–8CornersCorners 2–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Aug 2026, 08:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Cincinnati are the likely winners at home, but the market has already priced in their dominance, leaving little value on the moneyline or Over 2.5 goals.

The only modest edges are on first-half Over 1.5 goals (+3.7 points) and second-half Over 1.5 goals (+1.2 points), while Over 3.5 goals and Cincinnati -1 handicap should be avoided. Monitor Cincinnati's lineup given their congested three-match week.

Context

Cincinnati played at Orlando on August 15 and host Seattle on August 22.
- This match is the middle fixture of a three-game, eight-day span.
- No injury or lineup information is available, so rotation risk is uncertain.
NYCFC won 1-0 in Cincinnati on August 23, 2025.
- NYCFC won 1-0 at home on May 4, 2025.
- The April 2026 meeting ended 4-4 in New York.
Cincinnati home: 28 goals for, 19 against in 9 matches.
- NYCFC away: 8 goals for, 9 against in 8 matches.
- Cincinnati's last five home matches all went over 2.5 goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.43fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Cincinnati's home matches average 5.2 total goals and the last H2H produced 8 goals, but the odds already imply a 70% chance, leaving no value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have decent scoring records, but the odds heavily favor BTTS Yes and our estimate is below the implied probability.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Cincinnati or Draw

1.38fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Cincinnati's home unbeaten rate (78%) and NYCFC's away non-win rate (62%) support the double chance, but the odds already price it near our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cincinnati's strong home form contrasts with NYCFC's modest away record, but the low confidence reflects the competitive balance.
- Cincinnati home record: 6W-1D-2L, 28 goals scored.
- NYCFC away record: 3W-2D-3L, 8 goals scored.
- Cincinnati won 4 of last 5 home matches.
- NYCFC lost 2 of last 3 away matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCincinnatiEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cincinnati's strong home unbeaten rate and NYCFC's away struggles make Cincinnati or Draw a solid double chance.
- Cincinnati home record: 6W-1D-2L (78% unbeaten).
- NYCFC away record: 3W-2D-3L (62% not winning).
- Cincinnati unbeaten in 7 of 9 home matches.
- NYCFC failed to win in 5 of 8 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCincinnati or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cincinnati's tendency to start strong at home gives them a slight edge, but first-half outcomes are volatile.
- Cincinnati led at halftime in 47% of matches overall.
- NYCFC trailed at halftime in 20% of matches overall.
- Cincinnati led at halftime in 4 of last 5 home matches.
- NYCFC trailed at halftime in 1 of last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCincinnatiEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cincinnati's home dominance and NYCFC's away fragility support a HT/FT double, but the probability remains low due to variance.
- Cincinnati led at halftime in 47% of matches and won 39% overall.
- Cincinnati home record: 6W-1D-2L, with 4 wins after leading at halftime.
- NYCFC away record: 3W-2D-3L, with 2 losses after trailing at halftime.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostCincinnati/CincinnatiEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cincinnati's home games are high-scoring and the recent H2H was an 8-goal thriller, supporting Over 2.5.
- Cincinnati home matches average 5.2 total goals (28 scored, 19 conceded in 9 games).
- NYCFC away matches average 2.1 total goals (8 scored, 9 conceded in 8 games).
- Last H2H meeting produced 8 goals (4-4 in April 2026).
- Cincinnati's last 5 home matches: 4-2, 4-3, 6-2, 3-5, 3-3 (all over 2.5).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, and the last H2H saw both score.
- Cincinnati scored in 8 of 9 home matches this season.
- NYCFC scored in 6 of 8 away matches this season.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 home matches.
- Last H2H ended 4-4 with both teams scoring.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-half scoring averages suggest a decent chance of at least 2 goals before halftime.
- Cincinnati averages 1.5 first-half goals at home.
- NYCFC averages 1.0 first-half goals away.
- Cincinnati's last 5 home matches: first-half goals totals 1,1,2,1,1 (avg 1.2).
- NYCFC's last 5 away matches: first-half goals totals 1,1,0,1,0 (avg 0.6).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cincinnati's home games tend to open up after halftime, and the recent H2H featured a high-scoring second half.
- Cincinnati home matches average 3.7 second-half goals (total 5.2 - 1.5 first-half).
- NYCFC away matches average 1.1 second-half goals (total 2.1 - 1.0 first-half).
- Last H2H had 5 second-half goals (4-4 game).
- Cincinnati's last 5 home matches: second-half goals totals 3,3,4,4,2 (avg 3.2).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Corner counts are inconsistent, but the combined averages hover near the line, making Over 9.5 a low-confidence lean.
- Cincinnati home matches average 8.2 total corners (4.2 for, 4.0 against).
- NYCFC away matches average 7.6 total corners (2.2 for, 5.4 against).
- Last H2H had 6 corners (2 for NYCFC, 4 for Cincinnati).
- Cincinnati's last 5 home matches: total corners 10,1,6,1,4 (avg 4.4).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate decent shot volume, but the line is close to the combined average, so confidence is low.
- Cincinnati home matches average 10.4 shots on target (5.7 for, 4.7 against).
- NYCFC away matches average 8.1 shots on target (4.1 for, 4.0 against).
- Last H2H had 15 shots on target (9 for NYCFC, 6 for Cincinnati).
- Cincinnati's last 5 home matches: shots on target totals 13,10,20,9,15 (avg 13.4).
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Cincinnati has been highly reliable when projected to go over 2.5 goals

Cincinnati has fulfilled 4 of 4 Over 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 70%, with an expected 2.8 fulfilled predictions, so actual results exceeded expectation. All four matches produced at least three total goals, including two high-scoring home games.

Recent evidence for Cincinnati4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer