New York Red Bulls0Nashville1

HT 0–0Wed 19 Aug 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges6–0100%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 13–11On targetOn target 1–3CornersCorners 7–10

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Aug 2026, 08:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Under 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score 'No' — the model sees significant value (18 and 13 percentage-point edges) given Nashville's strong away defense and a historically low-scoring H2H.

Nashville or Draw is the safest match-result play, while the outright away win is fairly priced.

Context

Nashville away record: 4W-3D-2L, goals against 5 in 9 away matches.
- Nashville have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 away matches.
- Nashville overall goals against: 14 in 18 matches (0.78 per game).
Last 6 H2H results: 2-1, 2-0, 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 0-0.
- Four of the last six meetings ended with under 2.5 goals.
- Nashville kept a clean sheet in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
NYRB home record: 4W-2D-3L, goals against 18 in 9 home matches.
- NYRB home goals conceded average: 2.0 per game.
- Nashville away goals scored: 10 in 9 matches (1.11 per game).
Nashville overall points 40 vs NYRB 25.
- Nashville goal difference +21 vs NYRB -10.
- MLS top seven qualify directly for Round One; eighth and ninth enter a Wild Card.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nashville's superior away defensive record and overall form give them the edge, though NYRB's home advantage and H2H balance keep confidence medium.
- Nashville away record: 4W-3D-2L, goals for 10, against 5 in 9 away matches
- New York Red Bulls home record: 4W-2D-3L, goals for 16, against 18 in 9 home matches
- Nashville overall points 40 vs NYRB 25; Nashville goal difference +21 vs NYRB -10
- Last 5 H2H: Nashville won 2, NYRB won 1, 2 draws
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNashvilleEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nashville's strong away form and NYRB's inconsistent home results make Nashville or Draw highly likely.
- Nashville away record: 4W-3D-2L, only 2 losses in 9 away matches
- NYRB home record: 4W-2D-3L, lost 3 of 9 home matches
- Nashville overall form: 12W-4D-2L; NYRB 7W-4D-7L
- H2H last 5: Nashville won 2, drew 2, lost 1
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNashville or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into half time level, and the H2H shows a pattern of first-half draws.
- NYRB leading at half time: 47% of matches; trailing: 27%
- Nashville leading at half time: 40%; trailing: 13%
- H2H last 5: 3 matches were level at half time
- Both teams average first half goals under 1.1
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nashville's ability to win away after a level first half is plausible, but the specific HT/FT combination is rare.
- Nashville away record: 4W-3D-2L, often winning after level first half
- NYRB home record: 4W-2D-3L, but only 2 wins after level first half
- H2H: Nashville won 2 of last 5, both after level first half
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw / NashvilleEstimated chance20%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern is strongly low-scoring, and Nashville's defensive solidity away from home supports Under 2.5.
- H2H last 5: 4 matches had under 2.5 goals (0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 2-0)
- Nashville away goals: 10 in 9 matches (1.11 per game); NYRB home goals: 16 in 9 (1.78 per game)
- Nashville away goals conceded: 5 in 9 (0.56 per game); NYRB home conceded: 18 in 9 (2.0 per game)
- Nashville overall goals against: 14 in 18 (0.78 per game)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H shows frequent clean sheets, and Nashville's away defense is strong, making BTTS No slightly more likely.
- H2H last 5: 4 matches had at least one clean sheet (0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 2-0)
- Nashville away clean sheets: 4 in 9 away matches
- NYRB home failed to score in 2 of 9 home matches
- Nashville overall clean sheets: 8 in 18 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nashville's away defensive record gives a moderate chance of a clean sheet, but NYRB's home scoring ability lowers confidence.
- Nashville away clean sheets: 4 in 9 away matches
- NYRB home failed to score in 2 of 9 home matches
- H2H: Nashville kept clean sheet in 2 of last 5 vs NYRB
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonNew York Red Bulls not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and the H2H trend supports a quiet first half.
- NYRB first half goals: 1.1 per game; first half conceded: 0.9 per game
- Nashville first half goals: 0.9 per game; first half conceded: 0.5 per game
- H2H last 5: 4 matches had 0 or 1 first half goals
- Nashville away first half goals: 0.56 per game (5 in 9)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second half scoring is slightly higher than first half for both teams, but the overall low-scoring trend makes this a coin flip.
- NYRB second half goals: 0.8 per game (1.9 total - 1.1 first half)
- Nashville second half goals: 0.6 per game (1.5 total - 0.9 first half)
- Combined second half average: 1.4 goals per game
- H2H last 5: 3 matches had 2+ second half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average under 5 corners each, and the H2H total corners are below 9.5, supporting Under.
- NYRB average corners: 4.8 per game; opponent corners: 4.8 per game
- Nashville average corners: 4.5 per game; opponent corners: 4.5 per game
- Combined average corners: 9.3 per game
- H2H last 5: average total corners 8.6
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 2 cards each, and the H2H total cards exceed 3.5, making Over slightly likely.
- NYRB average yellow cards: 2.5 per game; opponent yellow cards: 2.5 per game
- Nashville average yellow cards: 2.0 per game; opponent yellow cards: 2.0 per game
- Combined average cards: 4.5 per game
- H2H last 5: average total cards 4.2
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 37% vs our estimate 30% leaves no value; NYRB's home defensive record is poor.

Prediction history

Nashville has been highly reliable when projected to win

Nashville has fulfilled 4 of 5 recent win projections, a strong 80% rate. The average estimated probability in those matches was 58.4%, with an expected 2.9 fulfilled predictions, so they outperformed expectation. All four fulfilled predictions came at home, while the only miss was away.

Recent evidence for Nashville5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer