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Predictions graded

New York City1New England Revolution2

HT 0–1Thu 10 Sept 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–663%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 66%–34%ShotsShots 18–11On targetOn target 6–6CornersCorners 12–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Sep 2026, 05:28 · Europe/Bucharest

New England Revolution offer value at 3.00 to win (42% model probability vs 33% implied) and in the double chance at 1.73 (68% vs 58%), driven by NYCFC's poor form and eight listed absences.

Avoid over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, as the market has already priced in high-scoring expectations.

Context

New England Revolution sit fourth in the Eastern Conference with 37 points from 22 matches. Their away record is 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, but recent away performances have been much stronger.
New England won 3-1 at Columbus Crew on August 30 and 3-0 at DC United on August 19, scoring three goals in each match. Those results show they can create chances away from home, though their overall away record remains mixed. Against a New York City side that has struggled recently, this attacking form could be decisive.
- New England beat Columbus Crew 3-1 away on 2026-08-30.
- New England beat DC United 3-0 away on 2026-08-19.
- New England's away record this season is 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses.
NYCFC's latest official availability report, from the September 4 match against Nashville, listed eight players out: Alonso Martínez, Kevin O'Toole, Aiden O'Neill, Max Murray, Drew Baiera, Maxi Moralez, Keaton Parks, and Talles Magno.
Those absences span forward, midfield, and defensive roles, leaving the team without several regular options across the spine and attacking unit. The report is the most recent official update before this fixture, so any returns remain unresolved until the match-specific list is released. This creates real uncertainty about how NYCFC will line up and which replacements will be asked to step in.
- NYCFC’s September 4 availability report listed Alonso Martínez, Kevin O’Toole, Aiden O’Neill, Max Murray, Drew Baiera, Maxi Moralez, Keaton Parks and Talles Magno as out.
- The listed absences covered forward, midfield and defensive options.
To watchSources checked 5 Sep 2026, 05:26 · Europe/BucharestNYCFC availability reportwww.newyorkcityfc.com · 3 Sep 2026
New York City FC are seventh in the Eastern Conference with 28 points from 22 matches. Their recent league form has been poor, with no wins in their last five MLS outings.
New York City drew 0-0 with Nashville SC on September 4, drew 1-1 with Toronto FC on August 29, and lost 2-1 to FC Cincinnati on August 19. Those results show a team struggling to turn performances into wins. Facing a New England side that has been scoring freely away from home, this run could leave them vulnerable.
- New York City drew 0-0 with Nashville SC on 2026-09-04.
- New York City drew 1-1 with Toronto FC on 2026-08-29.
- New York City lost 2-1 to FC Cincinnati on 2026-08-19.
New York City FC and New England Revolution have met five times since 2024, with the most recent match on August 23, 2026 ending 1-1.
The last three league meetings were a 1-1 draw on August 23, 2026, a 2-0 New England home win on April 19, 2025, and a 2-1 New York City home win on March 15, 2025. Those results suggest close contests, but the current form gap may override that pattern.
- 2026-08-23: New England 1-1 New York City.
- 2025-04-19: New England 2-0 New York City.
- 2025-03-15: New York City 2-1 New England.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.60fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams show high-scoring tendencies, but the odds already price in a strong Over probability, leaving no value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams consistently score and concede, but the odds are slightly below our estimate, offering no edge.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

First-half scoring is likely, but the odds heavily favor Over 0.5, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
New England's superior overall record and recent H2H edge outweigh NYCFC's home advantage, though NYCFC's strong home scoring keeps the probability moderate.
- New England away record: 3W-2D-5L, 14 goals for, 16 against in 10 away matches
- NYCFC home record: 4W-3D-4L, 25 goals for, 18 against in 11 home matches
- New England overall: 11W-4D-7L, 36 goals for, 27 against; NYCFC overall: 7W-7D-8L, 36 goals for, 31 against
- Last 5 H2H: New England 2W, NYCFC 1W, 2D
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNew England RevolutionEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
NYCFC's poor recent form and New England's stronger away resilience make the away side or draw the safer double chance.
- New England away record: 3W-2D-5L; NYCFC home record: 4W-3D-4L
- NYCFC last 5 form: DDLLD (0 wins); New England last 5 form: WDWLL (2 wins)
- H2H last 5: New England 2W, 2D, NYCFC 1W
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNew England Revolution or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into half time level, making a first half draw a plausible outcome.
- NYCFC leading at half time in 40% of matches; New England leading in 27%
- NYCFC trailing at half time in 7%; New England trailing in 33%
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
New England's stronger second half scoring and NYCFC's second half defensive weakness give the away side a slight edge.
- New England second half goal difference: +0.2 per match (0.7 scored - 0.5 conceded)
- NYCFC second half goal difference: -0.4 per match (0.3 scored - 0.7 conceded)
- New England away second half performance slightly better than NYCFC home second half
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostNew England RevolutionEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A first half draw followed by a New England second half win is a plausible sequence given the teams' patterns.
- NYCFC first half draw rate: 53% (8 of 15 recent matches)
- New England away matches often see first half draws (3 of last 5 away)
- New England second half win rate: 40% overall
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/New England RevolutionEstimated chance22%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
New England winning both halves is unlikely but possible given their away form and NYCFC's struggles.
- New England won both halves in 2 of last 10 matches
- NYCFC lost both halves in 1 of last 10 matches
- New England away record shows occasional dominant performances
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostNew England RevolutionEstimated chance15%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
New England or draw in the first half is likely given NYCFC's tendency to draw and New England's occasional first half leads.
- NYCFC first half win rate: 40%; New England first half win rate: 27%
- NYCFC first half draw rate: 53%; New England first half draw rate: 40%
- Combined probability of New England win or draw in first half: 67%
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonNew England Revolution or DrawEstimated chance65%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring tendencies, especially NYCFC at home, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- NYCFC home matches average 3.9 total goals (25 for, 18 against in 11)
- New England away matches average 3.0 total goals (14 for, 16 against in 10)
- Both teams average over 1.2 goals scored per match overall
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently score and concede on the road/home, supporting both teams to score.
- NYCFC scored in 10 of 11 home matches; New England scored in 8 of 10 away matches
- NYCFC conceded in 9 of 11 home matches; New England conceded in 8 of 10 away matches
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making over 0.5 first half goals highly probable.
- NYCFC first half goals average 0.9; New England first half goals average 0.8
- NYCFC first half goals conceded average 0.5; New England first half goals conceded average 0.8
- Combined first half goal expectation: 1.5 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second half scoring is less certain, but both teams' overall scoring rates suggest a moderate chance of over 1.5 second half goals.
- NYCFC second half goals average 0.3 (total 1.2 - first half 0.9)
- New England second half goals average 0.7 (total 1.5 - first half 0.8)
- Combined second half goal expectation: 1.0
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have decent first half scoring rates, but the probability of both scoring in the first half remains moderate.
- NYCFC first half goals: 0.9 per match; New England first half goals: 0.8 per match
- NYCFC first half goals conceded: 0.5; New England first half goals conceded: 0.8
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in first half in 2 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostYesEstimated chance35%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
New England's high corner count and NYCFC's moderate corner numbers suggest over 8.5 corners is slightly favored.
- NYCFC average corners: 2.7; New England average corners: 5.6
- NYCFC opponent corners average: 4.5; New England opponent corners average: 5.3
- Combined average corners per match: 9.1
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high volume of shots, making over 24.5 shots a near coin flip.
- NYCFC average shots: 10.0; New England average shots: 14.1
- NYCFC opponent shots average: 12.5; New England opponent shots average: 11.3
- Combined average shots per match: 24.1
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 24.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is close to the line, making over 8.5 a marginal call.
- NYCFC average shots on target: 3.7; New England average shots on target: 5.1
- NYCFC opponent shots on target average: 4.5; New England opponent shots on target average: 4.3
- Combined average shots on target per match: 8.8
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages suggest over 3.5 cards is slightly more likely than under.
- NYCFC average yellow cards: 2.3; New England average yellow cards: 1.5
- NYCFC opponent yellow cards average: 2.5; New England opponent yellow cards average: 1.8
- Combined average cards per match: 4.0
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 50% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of 33% for home win; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

D1-1New England RevolutionvNew York City FCAug 23, 2026MAJ

L2-0New England RevolutionvNew York City FCApr 19, 2025MAJ

L2-1New York City FCvNew England RevolutionMar 15, 2025MAJ

D1-1New England RevolutionvNew York City FCAug 9, 2024LEA

W0-1New England RevolutionvNew York City FCMay 25, 2024MAJ

2 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	New York City Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	22	7	7	8	36-31	28	DDLLD
4	New England Revolution Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	22	11	4	7	36-27	37	WDWLL