Major League SoccerFull time

Predictions graded

Sporting Kansas City1New York Red Bulls2

HT 0–2Sun 24 May 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 15–10On targetOn target 8–4CornersCorners 6–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 May 2026, 08:21 · Europe/Bucharest

A tight, high-scoring affair is expected as Sporting KC look to build momentum before the break against a Red Bulls side that is tough to beat on the road.

The best betting value lies in over 3.5 cards, where our model sees a 60% probability versus an implied 52.4%, while the double chance 'Draw or New York Red Bulls' offers a high-confidence safety net.

Context

Choupo-Moting was questionable for both the May 14 Columbus match and the May 17 NYCFC derby.
- He is the most experienced forward in the squad and a key target man.
- Without him, the Red Bulls must rely on 18-year-old Julian Hall and a less proven supporting cast.
The club's official schedule labels this the last match before the World Cup break.
- Wicky and Afrifa spoke about turning the season around after the win at Austin.
- A strong home performance could lift the team out of a poor run at Children's Mercy Park.
Home record: 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses in MLS this season.
- They have conceded 12 goals in those 6 home games, an average of 2.0 per match.
- Only 8 goals scored at home highlights a blunt attack in familiar surroundings.
Last three MLS results: 1-1 draw, 1-0 New York win, 2-1 Sporting KC win.
- Two of those three matches had under 2.5 total goals.
- No meeting in the last three produced a margin larger than one goal.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
New York Red Bulls have a slight edge in overall quality and away form, while Sporting Kansas City's home record is poor, making an away win the most likely single outcome.
- Sporting Kansas City home record: 1W-2D-3L, 8 goals for, 12 against in 6 matches
- New York Red Bulls away record: 2W-2D-3L, 10 goals for, 17 against in 7 matches
- Sporting Kansas City last 5 matches: 2W-1D-2L, 6 goals for, 14 against
- New York Red Bulls last 5 matches: 2W-1D-2L, 8 goals for, 9 against
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNew York Red BullsEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting Kansas City's low home win rate and New York Red Bulls' ability to avoid defeat in most away games make a double chance for the visitors a high-probability outcome.
- Sporting Kansas City home win rate: 17% (1/6)
- New York Red Bulls away loss rate: 43% (3/7)
- H2H last 3 MLS meetings: 1 draw, 1 New York win, 1 Sporting win
- Sporting Kansas City overall win rate: 23% (3/13)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or New York Red BullsEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have inconsistent first-half performances, and the H2H suggests a tight start, but Sporting's tendency to trail early makes a draw a cautious pick.
- Sporting Kansas City first-half record: led at HT in 20% of matches, trailed in 60%
- New York Red Bulls first-half record: led at HT in 33% of matches, trailed in 40%
- H2H last 3 MLS meetings: 1 draw at HT, 1 New York lead, 1 Sporting lead
- Sporting Kansas City last 5 first-half results: 1W-2D-2L
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
New York Red Bulls have a slight edge in second-half performance away from home, while Sporting Kansas City often fade after the break.
- Sporting Kansas City second-half goal difference in last 5: -5
- New York Red Bulls second-half goal difference in last 5: -3
- Sporting Kansas City home second-half record: 1W-2D-3L
- New York Red Bulls away second-half record: 2W-2D-3L
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableNew York Red BullsEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a New York win is a plausible sequence given Sporting's tendency to start slowly and New York's ability to push on later.
- Sporting Kansas City HT draw rate: 23% (3/13), FT loss rate: 62% (8/13)
- New York Red Bulls HT draw rate: 21% (3/14), FT win rate: 36% (5/14)
- H2H last meeting: 1-1 draw at HT, 1-1 FT
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/New York Red BullsEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, with Sporting's defense conceding heavily and New York's away matches averaging nearly 4 goals, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Sporting Kansas City home matches: 8 goals for, 12 against in 6 games (avg 3.33 total goals)
- New York Red Bulls away matches: 10 goals for, 17 against in 7 games (avg 3.86 total goals)
- Sporting Kansas City last 5 matches: 6 goals for, 14 against (avg 4.0 total goals)
- New York Red Bulls last 5 matches: 8 goals for, 9 against (avg 3.4 total goals)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records but also leak goals regularly, making it likely that each side finds the net.
- Sporting Kansas City scored in 4 of last 5 matches
- New York Red Bulls scored in 4 of last 5 matches
- Sporting Kansas City conceded in 12 of 13 league matches this season
- New York Red Bulls conceded in 12 of 14 league matches this season
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Recent first-half data shows a trend toward multiple goals, especially with Sporting conceding early often, but overall averages are modest, so confidence is low.
- Sporting Kansas City first-half goals: 0.5 per game average, conceded 1.3 per game
- New York Red Bulls first-half goals: 0.7 per game average, conceded 0.9 per game
- Sporting Kansas City last 5 matches: 3 first-half goals for, 6 against
- New York Red Bulls last 5 matches: 5 first-half goals for, 3 against
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede more in the second half, and recent matches show a pattern of at least two goals after the break.
- Sporting Kansas City second-half goals in last 5: 3 for, 8 against
- New York Red Bulls second-half goals in last 5: 3 for, 6 against
- Sporting Kansas City home matches: 5 of 6 had over 1.5 second-half goals
- New York Red Bulls away matches: 5 of 7 had over 1.5 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average around 10 corners, with New York Red Bulls particularly prolific, making over 9.5 corners a reasonable expectation.
- Sporting Kansas City average corners per game: 3.5, opponent corners: 6.1 (total 9.6)
- New York Red Bulls average corners per game: 6.2, opponent corners: 4.5 (total 10.7)
- Sporting Kansas City last 5 matches: total corners avg 9.6
- New York Red Bulls last 5 matches: total corners avg 10.2
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches for both teams have seen an uptick in cards, with New York Red Bulls' games averaging over 4 cards, supporting over 3.5 cards.
- Sporting Kansas City average yellow cards: 1.6 per game, opponent: 1.7 (total 3.3)
- New York Red Bulls average yellow cards: 2.0 per game, opponent: 1.9 (total 3.9)
- Sporting Kansas City last 5 matches: total cards avg 3.8
- New York Red Bulls last 5 matches: total cards avg 4.6
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

D1-1New York Red BullsvSporting Kansas CitySep 7, 2024MAJ

L0-1Sporting Kansas CityvNew York Red BullsJul 4, 2022MAJ

W1-2New York Red BullsvSporting Kansas CityApr 18, 2021MAJ

D2-2Sporting Kansas CityvNew York Red BullsApr 14, 2019MAJ

L3-2New York Red BullsvSporting Kansas CityJul 14, 2018MAJ

3 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	Sporting Kansas City	13	3	2	8	13-34	11	WWLDL
6	New York Red Bulls Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	14	5	4	5	23-31	19	DWWLL

8pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Sporting Kansas City

W2-1AustinMay 17MAJ

W3-1Los Angeles GalaxyMay 14MAJ

L0-6Portland TimbersMay 10MAJ

D1-1Seattle SoundersMay 2MAJ

L0-5Chicago FireApr 26MAJ

L0-3Vancouver WhitecapsApr 18MAJ

L0-3Colorado SpringsApr 15US

L1-3San Jose EarthquakesApr 12MAJ

L1-3Real Salt LakeApr 4MAJ

L1-4Colorado RapidsMar 22MAJ

W2-1Los Angeles GalaxyMar 15MAJ

L0-1San DiegoMar 8MAJ

D2-2Columbus CrewMar 1MAJ

L0-3San Jose EarthquakesFeb 22MAJ

W2-0AustinFeb 14FRI

New York Red Bulls

D1-1New York City FCMay 16MAJ

W3-2Columbus CrewMay 13MAJ

W3-1Chicago FireMay 9MAJ

L0-2FC DallasMay 2MAJ

L1-3New York City FCApr 29US

L0-2FC CincinnatiApr 25MAJ

D4-4DC UnitedApr 22MAJ

L1-4CF MontrealApr 18MAJ

W3-1Pittsburgh RiverhoundsApr 15US

D2-2Inter MiamiApr 11MAJ

W4-2FC CincinnatiApr 4MAJ

L1-6CharlotteMar 21MAJ

D1-1Toronto FCMar 14MAJ

L0-3CF MontrealMar 8MAJ

W1-0New England RevolutionFeb 28MAJ

Squad & Injuries

Sporting Kansas City

28 available

Attackers4

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

New York Red Bulls

31 available

Attackers9

Midfielders7

Defenders13

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 3.5

Over 1.5

Over 3.5

Draw or New York Red Bulls

New York Red Bulls

Yes

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Sporting Kansas City

New York Red Bulls

Squad & Injuries

Sporting Kansas City

New York Red Bulls