Landskrona BoIS1Helsingborgs IF2

HT 1–1Wed 9 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 8–7On targetOn target 2–6CornersCorners 5–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 01:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Landskrona are the likelier winner but the odds offer no value; the real edge is fading the goals markets.

Over 2.5, BTTS Yes, and first-half Over 0.5 are all overpriced relative to our model, so avoid them and lean towards a low-scoring derby.

Context

Landskrona BoIS sit 6th in Superettan with 34 points from 22 matches. Their recent league form is WDDDW.
Landskrona beat Norrby IF 3-1 on 5 September and drew with Ostersunds FK 1-1 on 29 August. Helsingborg lost 0-2 at home to Sandviken on 5 September and have only one win in their last five league matches. This form gap suggests Landskrona are better placed to control the match.
- Landskrona's last five Superettan results: WDDDW (11 points).
- Helsingborg's last five Superettan results: LDLDL (2 points).
- Landskrona beat Norrby IF 3-1 on 5 September; Helsingborg lost 0-2 to Sandviken on the same day.
Helsingborgs IF midfielder Daouda Amadou started in central midfield against Sandviken and was booked in the 89th minute.
Local reporting states that booking triggers a suspension for the trip to Landskrona. His absence removes a recent central-midfield starter and forces Helsingborg to alter its midfield selection. The change is confirmed, so the team must find a replacement from its squad without Amadou.
- Helsingborg named Amadou in the starting XI against Sandviken and recorded his booking in the 89th minute.
- Two local reports state that Amadou's yellow card means he is suspended for Wednesday's derby.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 01:47 · Europe/BucharestHelsingborgs IF: Match facts, HIF vs Sandvikens IFwww.hif.se · 5 Sep 2026Skånesport: Five impressions from HIF vs Sandvikenskanesport.se · 5 Sep 2026
Helsingborg are 10th in Superettan with 26 points. Their away record is 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses.
Helsingborg have conceded 23 goals in 10 away matches, including 3 against Oddevold on 23 August and 4 against Sandviken on 28 June. Landskrona average 1.5 goals per game overall and scored 3 in their last away match. This defensive weakness may allow Landskrona to create scoring opportunities.
- Helsingborg's away record: 10 played, 23 goals conceded (2.3 per game).
- Helsingborg lost 1-3 at Oddevold on 23 August and 2-4 at Sandviken on 28 June.
- Landskrona average 1.5 goals per game and scored 3 against Norrby IF on 5 September.
Helsingborgs IF head coach Mikael Stahre began work on 2 September and made his match debut in the 0-2 home loss to Sandviken.
Stahre has publicly identified a more compact team shape and improved work with the ball as immediate priorities. His first derby comes with those tactical adjustments still being implemented, and the team's recent defeat shows the work remains in progress. The new coach's approach could influence how Helsingborg sets up against Landskrona.
- Helsingborg confirmed that Stahre led his first training session on 2 September and that the staff was set for the remainder of the season.
- After the Sandviken loss, Stahre said Helsingborg needed to become more compact while improving its work in possession.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 01:47 · Europe/BucharestHelsingborgs IF: Men's first-team staff confirmedwww.hif.se · 2 Sep 2026Skånesport: Stahre after his Helsingborg debutskanesport.se · 6 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Landskrona BoIS

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Landskrona's superior league position and dominant 3-0 H2H win give them a clear edge, but the odds already reflect that.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Landskrona BoIS or Draw

1.25fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Landskrona's strong home resilience and Helsingborg's poor away form make a home win or draw highly likely, but the odds are fair.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.55fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Helsingborg's away matches average 3.8 total goals, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate, leaving no value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scoring and conceding patterns, but the odds overprice BTTS relative to our estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average 0.7 first-half goals, but the odds imply an 80% chance, far above our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Landskrona BoIS' superior league position, recent form, and dominant H2H win give them a clear edge, though their home record is modest.
- Landskrona BoIS are 6th with 34 points, while Helsingborg are 10th with 26 points.
- Landskrona BoIS have won 3 of their last 5 matches, including a 3-0 away win over Helsingborg in June.
- Helsingborg have lost 3 of their last 5 matches and have a -9 goal difference.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLandskrona BoISEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Landskrona's strong home resilience and Helsingborg's poor away form make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Landskrona BoIS have lost only 2 of 10 home matches this season.
- Helsingborg have won only 3 of 10 away matches, losing 5.
- Landskrona BoIS are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (WDDDW).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostLandskrona BoIS or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Landskrona's tendency to start strongly and Helsingborg's poor first-half record give the home side a slight edge at the break.
- Landskrona lead at halftime in 40% of their matches.
- Helsingborg trail at halftime in 47% of their matches.
- Landskrona have scored first in 3 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostLandskrona BoISEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win with a halftime lead is plausible given Landskrona's strong starts and Helsingborg's struggles.
- Landskrona have led at halftime and won in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Helsingborg have trailed at halftime and lost in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Landskrona won the last H2H 3-0.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostLandskrona BoIS / Landskrona BoISEstimated chance30%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Helsingborg's leaky away defense and Landskrona's attacking output suggest a high-scoring derby.
- Helsingborg's away matches average 3.8 total goals (15 scored, 23 conceded in 10 games).
- Landskrona's home matches average 2.2 total goals (12 scored, 10 conceded in 10 games).
- The last H2H meeting ended 3-0 to Landskrona.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making BTTS a reasonable expectation.
- Helsingborg have scored in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
- Landskrona have conceded in 7 of their last 10 home matches.
- Both teams have scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and Helsingborg's early defensive vulnerability increases the chance of a first-half goal.
- Landskrona average 0.7 first-half goals per match.
- Helsingborg average 0.7 first-half goals per match.
- Helsingborg concede an average of 0.9 first-half goals per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half often opens up in derbies, and both teams' scoring patterns support a higher second-half total.
- Helsingborg's away matches average 3.8 total goals, with many coming after halftime.
- Landskrona's recent matches have seen second-half goals in 4 of their last 5 games.
- The last H2H meeting had all 3 goals in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the derby intensity could push the total over the line.
- Landskrona average 5.6 corners per match.
- Helsingborg average 3.7 corners per match.
- Combined average corners in their matches is 9.3.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Landskrona's attacking style at home should generate a solid number of corners.
- Landskrona average 5.6 corners per match overall.
- In their last home match with corner data, they had 12 corners.
- Helsingborg concede an average of 4.0 corners per away match.
BetBugs · Home CornerslostLandskrona BoIS over 5.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Helsingborg should manage a few corners even away from home, especially if chasing the game.
- Helsingborg average 3.7 corners per match overall.
- In their last away match with corner data, they had 4 corners.
- Landskrona concede an average of 5.3 corners per home match.
BetBugs · Away CornerswonHelsingborgs IF over 3.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The derby atmosphere and competitive stakes should lead to a higher card count.
- Landskrona average 2.6 yellow cards per match.
- Helsingborg average 2.3 yellow cards per match.
- Derby matches often produce more cards due to intensity.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%