Norrby IF1Landskrona BoIS3

HT 1–1Sat 5 Sept 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 42%–58%ShotsShots 14–13On targetOn target 7–7CornersCorners 8–11

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 04:50 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value lies in the draw (34% model vs 29% implied, +5.4pt edge) and under 2.5 goals (58% vs 45.5%, +12.5pt edge).

Avoid the double chance, first-half draw, and both teams to score, as they are priced at or below fair value. Landskrona's wide deliveries are a key tactical factor, but the overall stats point to a tight, low-scoring match.

Context

Norrby IF are 12th in Superettan with 23 points from 21 matches.
They are only one point above 13th-placed IFK Varnamo, who occupy the relegation playoff spot. This match is at home, where Norrby have won three and drawn five of ten games, so they will likely push for a result to protect their league position.
- Norrby IF are 12th with 23 points, one point above the relegation playoff line.
- Their home record is 3 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses in 10 matches.
Landskrona's recent league reports identify crosses as a repeated chance route.
Against IFK Värnamo, Kevin Jensen scored from Tino Capotondi's cross, and against Östersund the club noted frequent chances from wide deliveries and a free-kick. Norrby's wide defending and aerial coverage become a specific route that can shape Landskrona's chance creation.
- Against IFK Värnamo on 24 August, Kevin Jensen scored with a header from Tino Capotondi’s cross.
- Against Östersund on 29 August, Landskrona said they often created chances through crosses and also threatened from a free-kick delivery.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Sep 2026, 04:48 · Europe/BucharestLandskrona BoIS: Lika mot Värnamolandskronabois.se · 25 Aug 2026Landskrona BoIS: Kryss mot Östersundlandskronabois.se · 29 Aug 2026
Landskrona BoIS are 7th in Superettan with 31 points.
They have drawn their last three league games: 1-1 at home to Ostersunds FK on 29 August, 1-1 away to IFK Varnamo on 24 August, and 1-1 at home to Oddevold on 14 August. This run suggests they are competitive but not finishing games off, which may give Norrby IF a chance.
- Landskrona BoIS drew 1-1 with Ostersunds FK on 29 August 2026.
- They drew 1-1 with IFK Varnamo on 24 August 2026.
- They drew 1-1 with Oddevold on 14 August 2026.
Norrby IF are 12th in Superettan.
They lost 0-1 away to GIF Sundsvall on 31 August and 0-2 away to Falkenbergs FF on 15 August, with a 1-1 home draw against Sandviken in between. This poor run increases the pressure on them to get a result at home.
- Norrby IF lost 0-1 to GIF Sundsvall on 31 August 2026.
- They lost 0-2 to Falkenbergs FF on 15 August 2026.
- They drew 1-1 with Sandviken on 23 August 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Lean

Norrby IF or Draw

1.57fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Norrby's strong home resilience (only 2 losses) supports a double chance on the home side.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams show high draw tendencies and the recent H2H was level, making a stalemate the most likely single outcome.
- Norrby IF have drawn 11 of 21 league matches this season, the highest draw count in the division.
- Landskrona BoIS have drawn 7 of 21 league matches, including 3 of their last 5.
- The last H2H meeting in May 2026 ended 1-1.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Norrby's strong home resilience (only 2 losses) supports a double chance on the home side.
- Norrby IF have lost only 2 of 10 home matches this season (3W, 5D).
- Landskrona BoIS have won 5 of 11 away matches, but lost 4.
- Norrby's home points per game is 1.4, while Landskrona's away points per game is 1.55.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostNorrby IF or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first-half stats indicate a balanced matchup with a strong chance of a level score at halftime.
- Norrby IF led at halftime in 40% of matches and trailed in 33%.
- Landskrona BoIS led at halftime in 40% and trailed in 40%.
- Both teams have a high frequency of level scores at the break.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both halftime and fulltime is a plausible scenario given both teams' draw tendencies.
- Norrby IF have drawn 11 matches this season, often after level first halves.
- Landskrona BoIS have drawn 7 matches, with several goalless or level first halves.
- The last H2H meeting was 1-1 at full time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring and conceding rates, suggesting a low-scoring contest.
- Norrby IF average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match overall.
- Landskrona BoIS average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match overall.
- Combined average total goals in matches involving these teams is 2.35.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have consistent scoring records and the H2H history shows frequent goals at both ends.
- Norrby IF have scored in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
- Landskrona BoIS have scored in 9 of their last 11 away matches.
- Both teams have scored in 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be cautious early, with low first-half scoring averages.
- Norrby IF average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Landskrona BoIS average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.1.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to be more open as both teams push for a result, increasing goal likelihood.
- Norrby IF score 60% of their goals in the second half.
- Landskrona BoIS score 54% of their goals in the second half.
- Both teams have shown a pattern of more goals after halftime.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance48%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and Landskrona's wide play may increase corner opportunities.
- Norrby IF average 4.2 corners per match, while Landskrona average 5.0.
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams is 9.2.
- Landskrona's recent matches have seen high corner counts (e.g., 12 corners vs IK Brage).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Landskrona's high shot volume and Norrby's moderate output could push total shots on target above the line.
- Norrby IF average 2.8 shots on target per match, while Landskrona average 6.0.
- Combined average shots on target is 8.8.
- Landskrona have recorded 11 and 6 shots on target in recent matches.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Landskrona's higher disciplinary count could push the total cards over the line, though Norrby's low count adds uncertainty.
- Norrby IF average 0.6 yellow cards per match, while Landskrona average 2.2.
- Combined average yellow cards is 2.8, but Landskrona's recent matches have seen higher counts.
- Landskrona received 5 yellow cards in one recent away match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%