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Predictions graded

Derry City1CSKA Sofia2

HT 0–0Thu 16 Jul 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges2–250%

Yellow CardsYellow Cards 1–4Red CardsRed Cards 0–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Jul 2026, 18:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Derry City are primed to avoid defeat at a packed Brandywell, making 'Derry or Draw' (Double Chance) the standout value bet.

Both teams to score is highly likely given Derry's consistent scoring and CSKA's defensive issues, while CSKA's poor away form makes any bet on the visitors a trap.

Context

Derry lost the first leg 3-2 but scored a crucial away goal in the 88th minute.
- A 1-0 home win would send the tie to extra time, keeping Derry fully in contention.
- Manager Tiernan Lynch described the late goal as giving the team a 'fighting chance'.
Manager Tiernan Lynch confirmed more than 2,000 tickets sold by 11 July and expects a full house.
- Derry players and staff have emphasized the intimidating nature of Brandywell for visiting teams.
- CSKA were booed by their own fans in the first leg, suggesting they may be vulnerable to a hostile away crowd.
Derry's official report noted CSKA were booed after conceding the 88th-minute goal.
- CSKA have lost three of their last five competitive away matches.
- The first-leg performance suggests CSKA are not a settled, confident unit despite the aggregate lead.
Ellis Chapman and Callum Grogan made their competitive debuts in the first leg.
- Rob Slevin returned after a lengthy absence, adding defensive steel.
- James McClean also featured late, showing depth is being built for this tie.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Derry's strong home form and CSKA's shaky away record, combined with the motivational edge of a must-win home leg, give Derry a solid chance to win in 90 minutes.
- Derry City have won 3 of their last 5 home matches (W3 D2 L0), including a 2-0 win over Drogheda and a 1-0 win over Shamrock Rovers.
- CSKA Sofia have lost 3 of their last 5 away matches in all competitions (W1 D1 L3), including a 2-0 loss at Levski Sofia.
- Derry are only 3-2 down on aggregate and need a one-goal win to force extra time, with a passionate home crowd expected.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDerry CityEstimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Derry's formidable home record and CSKA's poor away form make it highly unlikely that CSKA will win at Brandywell.
- Derry City are unbeaten in their last 7 home matches (W4 D3 L0) across all competitions.
- CSKA Sofia have failed to win 4 of their last 5 away matches (W1 D1 L3).
- Derry have only lost 1 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDerry City or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Derry's strong home starts give them a slight edge to lead at the break, though CSKA's quality keeps confidence low.
- Derry City led at half-time in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- CSKA Sofia trailed at half-time in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
- Derry's home matches see them leading at half-time 40% of the time on average this season.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDerry CityEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Derry's need to push for a result and their second-half scoring record at home could see them edge the second period.
- Derry City scored in the second half in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- CSKA Sofia conceded in the second half in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Derry's late goal in the first leg (88th minute) shows their ability to finish strong.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableDerry CityEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While possible given Derry's home strength, a full-match dominance is a low-probability outcome against a CSKA side that can respond.
- Derry City have led at half-time and won the match in 2 of their last 5 home games.
- CSKA Sofia have trailed at half-time and lost the match in 1 of their last 5 away games.
- Derry's home form is strong, but CSKA's quality makes a wire-to-wire win less likely.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDerry City / Derry CityEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Derry's consistent scoring form and CSKA's defensive vulnerabilities, combined with the high-stakes nature of the tie, make both teams scoring highly likely.
- Derry City scored in 12 of their last 15 matches (80%), including 2 goals in the first leg away at CSKA Sofia.
- CSKA Sofia conceded in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches, including 2 goals to Derry in the first leg.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Derry's last 5 home matches, and in the only H2H meeting this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The open nature of the first leg and Derry's need to chase the tie, coupled with both teams' recent goal trends, points to another high-scoring affair.
- The first leg ended 3-2, with 5 total goals.
- Derry's last 5 matches averaged 3.0 total goals, with 4 of those 5 seeing over 2.5 goals.
- CSKA's last 5 competitive matches averaged 2.6 total goals, with 3 of 5 over 2.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Derry's aggressive start at home and CSKA's tendency to concede early suggest at least one first-half goal is probable.
- Derry City scored a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- CSKA Sofia conceded a first-half goal in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- The first leg saw 3 first-half goals (2-1 to CSKA).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first leg's open start and Derry's attacking intent could lead to an early exchange of goals, but it's not a consistent trend.
- Both teams scored in the first half of the first leg (2-1).
- Derry City scored and conceded in the first half in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- CSKA Sofia scored and conceded in the first half in 1 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonYesEstimated chance30%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derry's home matches tend to produce corners, and with both teams pushing, the total could exceed 9.5, though CSKA's corner data is sparse.
- Derry City average 5.2 corners per match this season, with 6.0 corners per home match in their last 5.
- CSKA Sofia average 6.0 corners per match this season, though data is limited.
- Derry's last 5 home matches averaged 10.2 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The attacking nature of the tie could push total shots on target over 8.5, though CSKA's low average adds uncertainty.
- Derry City average 4.0 shots on target per match, but at home in their last 5 they averaged 4.2.
- CSKA Sofia average 2.0 shots on target per match, but in the first leg they had 3 goals from limited data.
- Derry's last 5 home matches averaged 8.6 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derry's aggressive style and the match intensity could lead to over 3.5 cards, though CSKA's discipline tempers expectations.
- Derry City average 2.9 yellow cards per match this season, with 3.2 in their last 5 home matches.
- CSKA Sofia average 1.0 yellow cards per match, but in the first leg they received 0 cards.
- High-stakes European ties often see increased card counts.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 1W

L3-2CSKA SofiavDerry CityJul 9, 2026UEF

5 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Derry City

L2-3CSKA SofiaJul 9UEF

L2-4WaterfordJul 3PRE

W2-0Drogheda UnitedJun 26PRE

D1-1Shamrock RoversJun 22PRE

L1-2Galway UnitedJun 19PRE

W4-1BohemiansJun 12PRE

L1-2DundalkMay 29PRE

D0-0ShelbourneMay 25PRE

D0-0St Patrick's Athl.May 22PRE

D2-2WaterfordMay 15PRE

L0-1Drogheda UnitedMay 8PRE

D1-1Galway UnitedMay 4PRE

D1-1BohemiansMay 1PRE

W1-0Shamrock RoversApr 24PRE

W2-1ShelbourneApr 17PRE

CSKA Sofia

W3-2Derry CityJul 9UEF

W3-0MarekJul 3FRI

W3-2Odra OpoleJun 28FRI

L0-4PolessyaJun 24FRI

W2-1Brinje-GrosupljeJun 20FRI

L0-1LudogoretsMay 25FIR

L0-2Levski SofiaMay 16FIR

D1-1CSKA 1948May 13FIR

W1-0CSKA 1948May 8FIR

W1-0LudogoretsMay 3FIR

D0-0LudogoretsApr 29CUP

L1-3Levski SofiaApr 25FIR

W2-1LudogoretsApr 21CUP

D1-1Levski SofiaApr 13FIR

W1-0MontanaApr 8FIR

Squad & Injuries

Derry City

29 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

CSKA Sofia

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Over 2.5

Derry City or Draw

Derry City

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

CSKA Sofia

CSKA Sofia, draw no bet

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Derry City

CSKA Sofia

Squad & Injuries

Derry City

CSKA Sofia