Daniil Medvedev #6Russia22 – 0Roman Safiullin #98Russia0

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Medvedev has the higher level on this surface and the stronger serve, and there is no prior matchup pattern for Safiullin to lean on.

• Medvedev is ranked No. 6, Safiullin No. 102.
• Medvedev is 6-4 in tracked hard-court matches this window; Safiullin is 5-3.
• Medvedev wins 79% of first-serve points on hard court and averages 11.7 aces per match.
• The two have not met at tour level before.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

First sets in both players' format-matched samples usually pass nine games because both hold serve well.

• Medvedev's first sets on hard average 11.0 games with two tiebreaks in six matches.
• Safiullin's first sets on hard average 10.0 games with one tiebreak in seven matches.
• Medvedev's quarter-final first set against Wong was 6-3 and his previous opener was 7-6(6).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Safiullin has been competitive in game terms this week and only needs to stay within four games to cover.

• Safiullin's margins in his three Hangzhou wins were +6, +3 and +10 games.
• He lost his most recent completed match against a top-10 opponent by -6 games.
• Medvedev's last two completed match margins were +5 and +4.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Medvedev's long second sets offset Safiullin's short ones, leaving the line slightly on the over side.

• Medvedev's second sets on hard average 11.5 games with three tiebreaks in six matches.
• Safiullin's second sets on hard average 9.0 games with no tiebreaks in seven matches.
• Combined, the two samples point to just over ten games in the second set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45

The read

Medvedev is the stronger server and the marginally stronger first-set player in the format-matched samples.

• Medvedev has won four of six first sets in his hard best-of-3 set sample.
• Safiullin has won four of seven first sets in his equivalent sample.
• Medvedev wins 79% of first-serve points on hard court.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45

The read

The format-matched samples point to a two-set finish as the more common outcome for both players.

• Combined, only four of thirteen format-matched hard-court matches in the two set samples were three-setters.
• Safiullin won two of his three Hangzhou matches in straight sets.
• Medvedev has won two of his last three completed hard-court matches in straight sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45

The read

Medvedev remains the better player overall, but his poor second-set record keeps this closer than the match-winner read.

• Medvedev has won only two of six second sets in his hard best-of-3 set sample.
• Safiullin has won six of seven second sets in his equivalent sample, averaging 5.57 games to 3.43.
• Medvedev still holds the stronger overall hard-court record (6-4 to 5-3).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.00

The read

A straight-sets Medvedev win is the single most likely scoreline given his serving edge over a lower-ranked opponent.

• Two of Medvedev's six hard-court best-of-3 matches in the set sample finished 2-0 in his favour.
• Safiullin's hard best-of-3 set sample contains four 2-0 wins and one 0-2 loss in seven matches.
• Medvedev wins 79% of first-serve points on hard court.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Safiullin's low double-fault rate leaves Medvedev needing an above-average count for the over to land.

• Safiullin averages just 2.5 double faults per hard-court match.
• Medvedev averages 5.7 double faults per hard-court match in this window.
• Safiullin's tracked hard-court matches average 102.6 minutes, limiting service games played.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

If the match finishes in two sets, the combined ace count is likely to stay below the line.

• Safiullin averages 6.6 aces per match on hard court in this window.
• Medvedev's hard-court ace average is built on a mixed-format sample of ten matches.
• Safiullin's average match duration on hard court in this window is 102.6 minutes.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Safiullin's short sets against Bu and Sun show matches can finish without a tiebreak even though Medvedev tends to produce them.

• Safiullin has had only one tiebreak in seven hard best-of-3 matches.
• Safiullin's second sets on hard average 9.0 games with no tiebreaks.
• Medvedev's hard best-of-3 sample had four tiebreaks in six matches.