Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Medvedev's superior ranking, H2H dominance on grass, and stronger recent form against quality opposition make him a clear favorite.
- H2H: Medvedev leads 4-1 overall, 2-0 on grass, and won their most recent meeting 6-2 3-6 6-1 on 2026-06-13.
- Surface: Medvedev is 4-2 on grass in 2026; Cilic is 2-2. Medvedev's career grass win rate (65/93, 69.9%) edges Cilic's (96/151, 63.6%).
- Recent form: Medvedev 9-6 in last 15 with wins over top-50 opponents; Cilic 7-8 with losses to lower-ranked players (Kouame, Landaluce, Svajda).
- Ranking/class: Medvedev #9 vs Cilic #60; Medvedev has a 70.5% career win rate vs Cilic's 63.8%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance72%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With Cilic's powerful serve and Medvedev's defensive skills, expect multiple tight sets pushing the total games over 36.5.
- H2H on grass: 2021 match had 48 games; 2026 match had 24 games in 3 sets (8 games per set average).
- Cilic's serve: 11.7% ace rate, 77.2% first-serve win rate can produce holds and extended sets.
- Medvedev's return: 40% career return points won, but Cilic's 64.4% break-point save rate suggests tight service games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 36.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cilic's serve should keep the first set competitive, likely reaching at least 10 games.
- Cilic's serve: 77.2% first-serve win rate, 11.7% aces often lead to holds and 6-4 or 7-5 sets.
- Medvedev's return: 40% career return points won, but Cilic's 64.4% break-point save rate suggests few early breaks.
- Recent H2H: 2026 set 1 was 6-2 (8 games), but 2021 grass set 1 was 7-6 (13 games).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cilic's serve and grass-court ability should keep the game differential within 5.5 games.
- Cilic's competitiveness: won at least 8 games in 13 of last 15 matches, even in losses.
- H2H on grass: 2021 match Cilic won 20 games; 2026 match Cilic won 9 games in 3 sets.
- Medvedev's margin: average games won margin in last 10 wins is +4.2, but Cilic's serve keeps it close.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMarin Cilic +5.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Medvedev's strong start tendency and Cilic's slow openings give Medvedev the edge in set 1.
- Medvedev's first-set win rate: 91% conversion when winning first set; won first set in 10 of last 15 matches.
- Cilic's first-set record: lost first set in 8 of last 15 matches, including vs Medvedev on 2026-06-13.
- H2H: Medvedev won first set in 3 of 5 meetings, including both grass encounters.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Both players' recent Bo5 history and Cilic's ability to challenge on grass suggest this match will extend to at least four sets.
- H2H: 3 of 5 meetings went to deciding sets or beyond; both grass meetings had at least 4 sets.
- Cilic's competitiveness: won at least one set in 9 of last 15 matches, including vs top-10 players.
- Medvedev's Bo5 trend: 4 of his last 5 Bo5 matches went over 3.5 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
On grass, both big servers should combine for over 21.5 aces in a likely 4-set match.
- Cilic's ace rate: 11.7% (career 9365 aces in 1136 matches, ~8.2 per match).
- Medvedev's ace rate: 10% (career 5826 aces in 860 matches, ~6.8 per match).
- H2H: In 5 matches, combined aces: 33 (Cilic) + 51 (Medvedev) = 84, average 16.8 per match, but grass boosts ace counts.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With two strong servers on grass, at least one set is likely to reach a tiebreak.
- Cilic's tiebreak history: 51% career tiebreak win rate; played tiebreaks in 4 of last 15 matches.
- Medvedev's tiebreak history: 55% career tiebreak win rate; played tiebreaks in 5 of last 15 matches.
- H2H: 2 of 5 meetings featured a tiebreak, both on grass (2021 set 1, 2019 set 2).
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Marin Cilic #600Daniil Medvedev #9Russia3

Player Profiles

Marin Cilic

Daniil Medvedev

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Marin Cilic +4.5

Over 3.5

Daniil Medvedev 3-1

Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Marin Cilic

Daniil Medvedev