Jan-Lennard Struff #74Germany33 – 0Daniil Medvedev #9Russia0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have strong serves, and recent H2H on grass has been tight, pushing total games over 36.5.

• Last two Wimbledon H2H matches had 37 and 38 total games.
• Struff's last two matches had 55 and 62 total games, indicating long, competitive sets.
• Medvedev's serve and return stats suggest he can hold comfortably, but Struff's serve keeps sets close.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Strong serving from both players in opening sets suggests a tight first set with over 9.5 games.

• Last two Wimbledon H2H first sets had 10 and 10 games.
• Struff's last two first sets had 10 and 10 games.
• Both players have first-serve win rates above 74%, making breaks less likely early.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Struff's competitive nature on grass and recent close matches suggest he will stay within 5.5 games.

• In their 2024 Wimbledon match, Struff covered +5.5 games (lost by 5 games).
• Struff's last two matches were decided by 0 and 0 games, showing he keeps matches close.
• Medvedev's average margin in wins over Struff is 5.2 games, but on grass it's tighter.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.20

The read

Struff's recent matches have been tiebreak-heavy, and Medvedev's history on grass includes many tiebreaks, making at least one likely.

• In their last 3 Wimbledon H2H matches, there were 3 tiebreaks.
• Struff's last two matches had 4 and 5 tiebreaks, showing his sets often go to tiebreaks.
• Medvedev's tiebreak win rate is 55%, Struff's is 49%, indicating close sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Both players are capable of double-digit aces in a Bo5 match, and grass amplifies serve effectiveness.

• Struff averages 10.4 aces per match, Medvedev 10.0, but in Bo5 matches, totals often exceed 22.5.
• In their 2024 Wimbledon match, combined aces were 27.
• Struff's ace rate on grass is higher due to his powerful serve, and Medvedev's serve is also effective on grass.