ATP HalleFinished

Predictions graded

Daniel Altmaier #81Germany2Daniil Medvedev #7Russia1

Sets 6-4 · 6-7 · 6-4Fri 19 Jun 2026, 15:30 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalGrass

Predictions0–70%

Edges0–50%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaniil Medvedev · 74 places

Daniel Altmaier

Germany

Altmaier reached a career-high No. 44 on 5 January 2026. ATP profile snippets list clay as his preferred surface, but he has turned a Halle wild card into a live grass quarterfinal this week.

Current ranking: #81
Peak ranking: #44 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

Medvedev reached world No. 1 on 28 February 2022. ATP profile snippets list hard as his preferred surface, and public 2026 reporting points to a top-10 rebound after the 2025 coaching reset.

Current ranking: #7
Peak ranking: #1 · 2022
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Jun 2026, 16:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Medvedev has cruised through Halle without dropping a set, while Altmaier needed three sets in both wins and faces a fatigue disadvantage.

Medvedev’s superior grass record, 2-0 H2H edge, and strong serving make him a heavy favorite. Best betting angles are under 22.5 total games and Medvedev -3.5 game handicap.

Context

Altmaier beat Hurkacz 3-6 6-3 7-5 and Basilashvili 7-5 6-4, both longer than Medvedev's 6-4 6-4 and 6-3 6-4 wins.
- Medvedev has not dropped a set in Halle, facing only 15 games per match on average.
- Altmaier's matches averaged 26 games, nearly double Medvedev's 12.
Medvedev won 6-3 6-3 on grass in Halle 2025, losing only six games.
- He also won their 2016 carpet meeting 6-2 2-6 6-4.
- Altmaier has not broken Medvedev's serve in a deciding set.
Altmaier lost the first set 3-6 to Hurkacz and 4-6 to Tiafoe in recent grass matches.
- Medvedev won the first set 6-3 and 6-4 in his two Halle matches this week.
- Medvedev's career first-set win conversion is 91%, Altmaier's is 88%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Daniil Medvedev

1.18fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Medvedev's dominant grass form this week, superior H2H, and much stronger career surface record give him a clear edge.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Daniil Medvedev

1.25fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Medvedev's fast starts on grass this week and Altmaier's recent first-set struggles point to a Medvedev set 1 win.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Daniil Medvedev 2-0

1.50fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Medvedev's dominant grass form and Altmaier's fatigue make a straight-set win likely, but the odds are slightly below the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Medvedev's dominant grass form this week, superior H2H, and much stronger career surface record give him a clear edge.
- Medvedev leads H2H 2-0, including a 6-3 6-3 grass win in 2025.
- Medvedev has not dropped a set this week in Halle, beating Etcheverry and Atmane comfortably.
- Altmaier needed three sets in both wins this week, including a tight 3-6 6-3 7-5 over Hurkacz.
- Medvedev's career grass win rate (65-31) far exceeds Altmaier's (11-18).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance78%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's efficient wins this week and the quick H2H suggest a relatively short match under 22.5 games.
- Medvedev's two Halle wins this week were 12 and 12 total games.
- Altmaier's last two matches had 30 and 22 total games, but Medvedev's serve dominance should limit games.
- H2H on grass was 6-3 6-3 (18 games).
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 22.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's strong serving and return should allow him to cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- Medvedev's average games won per match this week is 12, while losing only 7.5 on average.
- Altmaier's average games lost per match this week is 11.5.
- H2H on grass saw Medvedev win by 6 games (12-6).
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostDaniil Medvedev -3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Medvedev's fast starts on grass this week and Altmaier's recent first-set struggles point to a Medvedev set 1 win.
- Medvedev has won the first set in both Halle matches this week, 6-3 and 6-4.
- Altmaier lost the first set 3-6 to Hurkacz and 4-6 to Tiafoe in recent grass matches.
- Medvedev's first-set win conversion career is 91%, Altmaier's is 88%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Medvedev's dominant form and Altmaier's taxing path make a straight-set win the most likely outcome.
- Medvedev has won all four sets this week without needing a tiebreak.
- Altmaier has dropped at least one set in three of his last four matches.
- Medvedev's straight-set win rate on grass is high, and Altmaier's fatigue from longer matches may prevent a third set.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostDaniil Medvedev 2-0Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's superiority and Altmaier's fatigue make a two-set match likely.
- Medvedev has won in straight sets in both Halle matches this week.
- Altmaier has gone to three sets in both wins this week, but Medvedev's level is much higher than his opponents.
- H2H on grass was a straight-set win for Medvedev.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's dominance on serve and Altmaier's weaker return make a tiebreak unlikely.
- Medvedev has not played a tiebreak in his two Halle matches this week.
- Altmaier played one tiebreak in his last five matches.
- Medvedev's strong hold game reduces tiebreak likelihood.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have decent ace rates, and grass conditions should push the total over 12.5.
- Medvedev averages 10% aces on serve, Altmaier 8.5%.
- In H2H, they combined for 23 aces in two matches (11.5 per match).
- Grass courts typically produce more aces.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's higher double fault rate and the H2H trend suggest over 5.5 double faults is possible.
- Medvedev's double fault rate is 4.8%, Altmaier's is 3.1%.
- In H2H, they combined for 9 double faults in two matches (4.5 per match).
- Pressure situations on grass can lead to more double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

0-2 (2 meetings)

L6-3 6-3Daniel Altmaier#81vDaniil Medvedev#7Jun 16, 2025

L6-2 2-6 6-4Daniel Altmaier#81vDaniil Medvedev#7Feb 17, 2016

2 total meetings

Daniel Altmaier

7W 8L

3-6 6-3 7-5#103Hubert Hurkacz

7-5 6-4#118Nikoloz Basilashvili

7-6(3) 4-6 6-4#26Frances Tiafoe

4-6 6-4 4-6 6-1 7-6(7)#4Felix Auger Aliassime

6-2 7-5#28Tommy Paul

4-6 7-6(4) 6-4#5Ben Shelton

7-5 6-2#104Rinky Hijikata

3-6 7-5 7-6(5)#139Dusan Lajovic

6-3 6-3#235Henri Squire

7-5 6-3#3Alexander Zverev

4-6 7-6(3) 6-4#189Zhizhen Zhang

6-4 6-4#45Juan Manuel Cerundolo

6-4 7-6(10)#101Alex Molcan

6-2 6-3#46Marin Cilic

6-4 1-6 6-3#42Tomas Machac

Daniil Medvedev

9W 6L

6-4 6-4#53Terence Atmane

6-3 6-4#30Tomas Martin Etcheverry

7-6(4) 6-1#47Kamil Majchrzak

6-2 3-6 6-1#46Marin Cilic

6-3 4-6 7-6(6)#639Thijs Boogaard

6-2 1-6 6-1 1-6 6-4#91Adam Walton

6-2 5-7 6-4#1Jannik Sinner

1-6 6-4 7-5#55Martin Landaluce

6-3 6-2#52Thiago Agustin Tirante

3-6 6-4 6-2#120Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-3 5-7 6-4#10Flavio Cobolli

6-3 6-2#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

6-2 6-7(3) 6-4#61Fabian Marozsan

6-0 6-0#49Matteo Berrettini

6-0 4-6 7-5#27Francisco Cerundolo