Terence Atmane #53France00 – 2Daniil Medvedev #7Russia2

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.05

The read

Medvedev's massive edge in grass-court pedigree, ranking, and career stats, combined with a favorable H2H and Atmane's limited grass experience, make him a strong favorite.

• Medvedev career grass win% 63/99 (63.6%), Atmane 5/9 (55.6%) with only 9 career grass matches
• Medvedev 2026 grass: 2-1, Atmane 1-1; Medvedev's grass wins include Cilic and Boogaard, Atmane's only grass win vs Landaluce (rank 55)
• H2H: Medvedev won 2024 AO meeting in 4 sets, leading 2-1 before retirement; Medvedev had higher return points won (43% vs 33%)
• Medvedev ranking #7 vs Atmane #53, career win% 70.5% vs 59.2%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Medvedev's ability to win efficiently on grass and Atmane's likely struggles on return should keep total games under 21.5 in a straight-set scenario.

• Medvedev's last 3 Bo3 wins: 15, 17, 12 games; Atmane's last 3 Bo3 losses: 16, 13, 18 games
• Medvedev career grass matches average ~20.5 total games; Atmane's 2 grass matches in 2026: 31 and 16 games
• H2H: 2024 AO match had 34 games in 3+ sets, but on grass with Medvedev's serve edge, shorter points expected

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Medvedev's consistent ability to cover -3.5 games in Bo3 wins, especially on grass, is supported by Atmane's negative differentials in recent losses.

• Medvedev's last 3 Bo3 wins: game differentials of +6, +2, +7; Atmane's last 3 Bo3 losses: -4, -5, -6
• Medvedev career grass game win% ~55%, Atmane ~48% estimated from limited data
• H2H: Medvedev won 18 games to Atmane's 13 before retirement, a +5 differential in 3+ sets

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Medvedev's elite first-set conversion rate and Atmane's recent trend of slow starts on grass point to Medvedev taking the opener.

• Medvedev first-set win conversion career 91%, Atmane 85%
• Medvedev won first set in 3 of last 5 matches; Atmane lost first set in 3 of last 5
• Atmane's last grass match: lost first set 3-6 vs Landaluce before winning in 3

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Medvedev's superior serve and return stats on grass, plus Atmane's inexperience, make a straight-set victory the most likely outcome.

• Medvedev won in straight sets in 4 of last 6 Bo3 wins; Atmane lost in straight sets in 4 of last 6 Bo3 losses
• Atmane's only grass win in 2026 went 3 sets vs #55; Medvedev's grass wins this year: 2-0 vs Cilic, 2-1 vs Boogaard
• Medvedev's first-set win% and Atmane's low return points won (37% career) suggest limited resistance

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22

The read

Medvedev's dominance in early sets and Atmane's difficulty on grass point to a match finishing in straight sets.

• Medvedev 2-0 in 4 of last 6 Bo3 wins; Atmane 0-2 in 4 of last 6 Bo3 losses
• Atmane's only grass win required 3 sets; Medvedev's grass wins this year: one 2-0, one 2-1
• Medvedev's career first-set win conversion 91% reduces likelihood of dropping a set

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Medvedev's strong first-set performance and both players' moderate tiebreak rates make a tiebreak-free match slightly more likely.

• Medvedev career tiebreak win% 55%, Atmane 59%; both average ~0.25 tiebreaks per set on grass
• Medvedev's last 5 matches: 2 tiebreaks in 13 sets; Atmane's last 5: 3 tiebreaks in 13 sets
• Medvedev's first-set dominance reduces tiebreak likelihood

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate double fault rates, and the expected total points suggest staying under 6.5 double faults.

• Medvedev double fault rate 4.8%, Atmane 4.6%; combined ~4.7%
• In ~22 games with ~130 points, expected double faults ~6.1
• Medvedev averaged 2.3 DFs per match in last 4 grass matches; Atmane 2.0 in last 2

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have above-average ace rates on grass, and a typical Bo3 match length should push total aces over 12.5.

• Medvedev career ace rate 10%, Atmane 8.3%; combined ace rate ~9.2%
• In Bo3 match with ~22 games, expected aces ~12-14 based on serve rates
• Medvedev averaged 8.5 aces per match in last 4 grass matches; Atmane 6.5 in last 2