United KingdomATP WimbledonFinished

Predictions graded

Daniel Merida Aguilar #84Spain1Daniil Medvedev #9Russia3

Sets 6-3 · 3-6 · 5-7 · 2-6Wed 1 Jul 2026, 13:09 Predictions gradedSecond RoundGrass

Predictions3–538%

Edges2–433%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaniil Medvedev · 75 places

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Spain

Spanish 20-year-old from Madrid. Public profile pages found in search are sparse and lag his 2026 rise, so the structured player reference is the safest current source for his Wimbledon ranking card.

Current ranking: #84
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

Former world No. 1, with career-high No. 1 reached on 28 February 2022. Public profile coverage describes hardcourt as his preferred surface, and he returned to the top 10 in 2026 after a coaching change late in 2025.

Current ranking: #9
Peak ranking: #1 · 2022
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hardcourt
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Jun 2026, 06:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Daniil Medvedev holds a massive edge over grass-court novice Daniel Merida Aguilar, who advanced via retirement.

Medvedev’s dominant first-round win and elite surface stats point to a straight-set rout. Best bets: under 29.5 total games and Medvedev -8.5 game handicap.

Context

Merida's 2026 grass record is 1-2, with the lone win coming via retirement.
- He lost 6-3, 6-2 to Martin Damm (rank 106) in June 2026.
- Career grass wins: 2, compared to 145 on clay and 69 on hard courts.
- Medvedev has 66 career grass wins and a 66.7% win rate on the surface.
Medvedev beat Marin Cilic 6-1, 6-2, 6-4 in the first round, losing only seven games.
- He reached the quarterfinals at Queen's Club (ATP 500) in June 2026.
- His 2026 grass record is 5-2, with losses only to top-65 players.
- Career first-set win rate of 91% suggests he starts matches strongly.
In round one, Camilo Ugo Carabelli retired at 0-3 in the fourth set due to an ankle injury.
- Merida was down two sets to one before the retirement.
- He has never won a completed best-of-five match on grass.
- His only other grass win in 2026 also came via retirement (vs. Gianluca Cadenasso).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.02
The read
Massive surface-fit and class edge for Medvedev on grass, where Merida has almost no experience and Medvedev is a proven Grand Slam champion with strong recent form.
- Medvedev career grass win% 66/99 (66.7%), Merida 2/5 (40%) in 2026, 0 career grass wins before 2026.
- Medvedev 2026 grass: 5-2, Merida 1-2 with loss to Martin Damm (rank 106) and win via retirement.
- Medvedev first-set win conversion 91% career, Merida 85% but vs much weaker opposition.
- Ranking gap: Medvedev #9, Merida #84; Medvedev 70.5% career win%, Merida 59.3%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance92%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Medvedev's dominant serving and Merida's inexperience on grass should produce a quick first set with few games.
- Medvedev R1 set1: 6-1 (7 games); Merida R1 set1: 4-6 (10 games).
- Medvedev 2026 grass avg set1 games: 8.4, Merida 9.3.
- Medvedev first-serve win% 75%, Merida 65%; Medvedev likely to hold easily and break early.
- Merida's grass return stats unavailable but career return points won 43% vs weaker competition.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's efficient grass-court play and Merida's likely inability to extend sets point to a match total comfortably under 31.5 games.
- Medvedev R1: 18 games won, 7 lost (25 total); Merida R1: 16 won, 14 lost (30 total but with retirement).
- Medvedev 2026 grass avg games per set: 9.2, Merida 9.6 (inflated by retirement).
- H2H none, but class gap suggests few long sets; Medvedev return points won 40% career, Merida 43% vs weaker opponents.
- Bo5 under 31.5 implies ~3 sets averaging 10 games or fewer, consistent with Medvedev's efficient wins.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 31.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's superior grass-court game and Merida's likely struggles to hold serve should result in a comfortable game handicap cover.
- Medvedev R1: +11 game differential vs Cilic; Merida R1: +2 vs Carabelli (retirement).
- Medvedev 2026 grass avg game margin: +4.3 per match; Merida -1.3.
- Career win% gap: Medvedev 70.5% vs Merida 59.3% suggests consistent game dominance.
- Bo5 format allows larger margins; Medvedev's return game (40% points won) should create multiple breaks.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostDaniil Medvedev -7.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Medvedev's elite first-set record and overwhelming surface advantage make him a near-certainty to take the opening set.
- Medvedev career first-set win% 91%, Merida 85% but vs lower-tier opponents.
- Medvedev won first set 6-1 vs Cilic in R1; Merida lost first set 4-6 vs Carabelli.
- Medvedev 2026 grass first-set record: 5-2, Merida 1-2.
- Surface edge: Medvedev's serve (75% first-serve win%) and return (40% return points) dominate on grass.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Medvedev's dominant R1 performance and Merida's struggles against low-ranked grass opponents suggest a routine straight-set win is the most likely outcome.
- Medvedev straight-set win in R1 vs Cilic (6-1 6-2 6-4), Merida needed retirement to advance.
- Medvedev 2026 grass sets: 12-4, Merida 3-5 (including retirements).
- Merida lost in straight sets to Martin Damm (rank 106) on grass in June 2026.
- Medvedev first-set win% 91% career, likely to start fast and not drop focus.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostDaniil Medvedev 3-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's class and Merida's inexperience make a straight-set win the most likely outcome, keeping total sets under 3.5.
- Medvedev straight-set win probability ~55% based on surface and ranking edge.
- Merida has never won a Bo5 match on grass; only Bo5 win was via retirement.
- Medvedev 2026 grass: 2 straight-set wins in 7 matches, but vs stronger opponents.
- Merida's fitness/endurance untested in Bo5 on grass; likely to fade if match extends.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's ability to win sets comfortably against a weaker opponent on grass makes a tiebreak unlikely.
- Medvedev career tiebreak win% 55%, Merida 49%.
- Medvedev 2026 grass: 1 tiebreak in 7 matches; Merida 0 in 3 matches.
- Medvedev's first-set dominance (91% win) reduces tiebreak likelihood; Merida unlikely to push sets deep.
- Grass often produces fewer tiebreaks due to serve dominance, but class gap here suggests routine sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's high ace rate on grass and the best-of-five format make over 12.5 total aces probable, though Merida's low ace output adds uncertainty.
- Medvedev career ace rate 10%, Merida 2.7%.
- Medvedev R1: likely 5-8 aces in 3 sets; Merida R1: likely 2-4 aces.
- Grass surface amplifies ace counts; Medvedev height 198cm aids serve power.
- Bo5 format allows more serving opportunities; combined ace rate ~6.4% suggests ~13+ aces in 30 games.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have similar double fault rates, and the extended match length on grass should push the total over 7.5, though variance is high.
- Medvedev double fault rate 4.8%, Merida 5.1%.
- Combined double fault rate ~5% implies ~1.5 per 30 points; in 30 games (~180 points) expect ~9 double faults.
- Grass can cause more footwork errors; both players have moderate double fault tendencies.
- Bo5 match length increases total double fault opportunities.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Daniel Merida Aguilar

8W 7L

6-4 6-3 2-6 0-3#59Camilo Ugo Carabelli

4-6 3-6 6-2 3-0 ret.#59Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6-3 6-2#106Martin Damm

7-6(5) 6-3#122Henrique Rocha

6-3 5-7 6-3#133Andrea Pellegrino

6-1 6-2#119Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-4 6-2#209Liam Broady

6-2 ret.#190Gianluca Cadenasso

6-3 6-3 6-4#5Ben Shelton

6-3 5-7 6-2#70Aleksandar Kovacevic

6-4 2-6 6-3#111Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-3 3-6 7-6(4)#137Tomas Barrios Vera

7-5 6-4#145Mackenzie Mcdonald

6-4 6-2#87Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-3 6-4#39Corentin Moutet

Daniil Medvedev

10W 5L

6-1 6-2 6-4#62Marin Cilic

6-4 6-7(6) 6-4#61Daniel Altmaier

6-4 6-4#52Terence Atmane

6-3 6-4#32Tomas Martin Etcheverry

6-2 3-6 6-1#62Marin Cilic

7-6(4) 6-1#45Kamil Majchrzak

6-3 4-6 7-6(6)#525Thijs Boogaard

6-2 1-6 6-1 1-6 6-4#85Adam Walton

6-2 5-7 6-4#1Jannik Sinner

1-6 6-4 7-5#60Martin Landaluce

6-3 6-2#55Thiago Agustin Tirante

3-6 6-4 6-2#119Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-3 5-7 6-4#10Flavio Cobolli

6-3 6-2#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

6-2 6-7(3) 6-4#53Fabian Marozsan

Daniel Merida Aguilar #84Spain1Daniil Medvedev #9Russia3

Player Profiles

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Daniil Medvedev

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 9.5

Daniil Medvedev -8.5

Under 29.5

Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev 3-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Daniil Medvedev