Santos1Bahia1

HT 0–1Sun 25 Oct 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–188%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 23–16On targetOn target 11–2CornersCorners 14–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Oct 2026, 21:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Santos and Bahia are four points apart in mid-table, and Santos' stronger recent run makes them the likelier side to avoid defeat — but 1.25 for Santos to win or draw asks for more than that record gives.

Under 3.5 goals at 1.55 is the one quoted price that holds up.

Context

A fixture that has recently separated these sides only occasionally.
The 25 April 2026 meeting produced four goals and a share of the points, the third draw in the last five encounters. That history gives some backing to both teams finding the net here, though the same series also includes Bahia's 2-0 win in August 2025 and Santos' 2-1 win in September 2023.
- 25 April 2026, Serie A at Bahia: Bahia 2-2 Santos.
- Series context: three of the last five meetings between the sides ended as draws.
Santos have been the dominant side on home turf in the tracked window.
The shot volume at Vila Belmiro is the clearest part of Santos' recent profile, more than double what they allow opponents. Bahia's away record shows they concede a lot of attempts, which points to Santos controlling territory. Six matches is a short sample, though, and shot counts do not settle who scores.
- Six home matches, 13 August to 8 October 2026: 19.0 shots and 6.5 on target per game.
- Opponents averaged 8.3 shots and 3.0 on target across those six home matches.
The fixture is placed in Serie A Round 32, with a 21:00 local kickoff at Vila Belmiro. That fixes the competition stage and venue for this match context. It does not itself establish a selection, tactical, or availability change.
- The Serie A schedule lists Santos versus Bahia in Round 32.
- The match is scheduled for 21:00 at Vila Belmiro.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 21:04 · Europe/Bucharestge.globo.comge.globo.com · 24 Oct 2026
Bahia have spent a lot of away games defending their own box.
Bahia's away matches have been busy at their own end, and their shot accuracy has been low relative to the volume they produce. That pattern supports Santos creating chances at Vila Belmiro, but Bahia took three wins from their last six matches, so pressure has not consistently turned into results against them.
- Seven away matches, 21 July to 9 October 2026: opponents averaged 18.0 shots and 6.7 on target.
- Bahia averaged 15.6 shots but only 3.7 on target in those away matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

Santos or Draw

1.25fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 80%

−16.0ppshort

Santos have not lost at home and Bahia's away record has more draws than wins, so the home side avoiding defeat is the better result read.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.53fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 65.4%

−5.4ppshort

Santos have been conceding regularly and Bahia usually find at least one away goal, so both sides scoring is well supported.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5 goals in 1st half

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

−1.7ppshort

Both teams' first-half scoring rates are low, with Bahia especially slow to start away games.

Corners Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 9.5

1.50fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 66.7%

−1.7ppshort

Santos generate a high home corner count and Bahia concede plenty away, pointing to a double-figure total.

Cards Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 4.5

1.53fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 65.4%

−5.4ppshort

The home and away yellow-card averages sit above five and recent Santos matches have been especially busy.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Santos have not lost at home and Bahia's away record has more draws than wins, so the home side avoiding defeat is the better result read.
- Santos are 3W-3D-0L in six home matches this season.
- Bahia are 2W-3D-2L in seven away matches.
- Santos home goals: 1.5 scored, 0.83 conceded per game; Bahia away: 1.43 scored, 1.29 conceded.
- Three of the last five head-to-heads were draws.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSantos or DrawEstimated chance64%

Goals3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Both teams' season and recent totals mostly sit below four goals despite regular scoring.
- Santos home matches average 2.33 total goals; Bahia away matches average 2.71.
- Five of Santos' last six matches had three or fewer total goals.
- Five of Bahia's last six matches had three or fewer total goals.
- Three of the last five head-to-heads stayed under 3.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Santos have been conceding regularly and Bahia usually find at least one away goal, so both sides scoring is well supported.
- Santos home matches had both teams scoring in 4 of 6; Bahia away in 4 of 7.
- Santos conceded in all six recent Serie A matches.
- Bahia scored in 5 of 7 away matches.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 head-to-heads.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring rates are low, with Bahia especially slow to start away games.
- Santos average 0.60 first-half goals for and 0.53 against; at home it is 0.67/0.67.
- Bahia away average 0.71 first-half goals for and 0.86 against.
- Four of Bahia's last six matches had one or fewer first-half goals.
- Three of Santos' last six matches had one or fewer first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Santos generate a high home corner count and Bahia concede plenty away, pointing to a double-figure total.
- Santos average 7.33 corners at home; opponents average 2.33.
- Bahia average 4.43 corners away; opponents average 6.71.
- Santos overall match corner average is 10.27; Bahia's is 11.29.
- Bahia away matches average 11.14 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Bahia's own away corner output is modest and Santos give up very few corners at home.
- Bahia average 4.43 corners away.
- Santos allow only 2.33 corners at home.
- Bahia had 3 corners at Palmeiras and 3 at Atletico Paranaense in recent away matches.
- Bahia's away opponents average 6.71 corners, showing they often defend rather than force corners.
BetBugs · Away CornerslostBahia under 5.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The home and away shot volumes add up above the line, and Bahia's away games have generally been busy.
- Santos average 19.0 shots at home; Bahia average 15.57 shots away.
- Santos home opponents average 8.33 shots; Bahia away opponents average 18.0.
- Santos' last six shot totals were 17, 10, 16, 9, 11 and 31.
- Bahia's last six shot totals were 9, 16, 10, 10, 17 and 11.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 27.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
The home and away yellow-card averages sit above five and recent Santos matches have been especially busy.
- Santos average 3.17 yellow cards at home; Bahia average 2.14 away.
- Santos' last six matches produced combined yellow totals of 3, 8, 10, 4, 7 and 5.
- Bahia's last six matches produced combined yellow totals of 6, 5, 3, 6, 3 and 3.
- Recent Santos matches averaged 6.17 total yellow cards; recent Bahia matches averaged 4.33.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%