Philadelphia Union1New England Revolution2

HT 0–1Sat 24 Oct 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–275%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 25–12On targetOn target 8–8CornersCorners 4–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Oct 2026, 20:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Philadelphia's strong home record meets a New England side third in the table but beaten 3-0 twice in their last five.

The home win is the likeliest single result, yet 1.48 asks more than the form justifies, and the goals prices at 1.35, 1.38 and 1.50 are similarly short. Two prices do offer value: New England to take four or more corners at 1.67 and Philadelphia not to keep a clean sheet at 1.38.

Context

A one-goal margin is a useful check on the idea that Philadelphia always run away with these home meetings; their home form this season has been strong but rarely a procession. New England score on the road often enough that another tight scoreline is entirely plausible.
- Philadelphia Union beat New England Revolution 1-0 at Subaru Park on 2025-09-20 in Major League Soccer.
The away record argues against a Philadelphia clean sheet and is the clearest reason New England can stay in this game. It rests on nine matches, though, and the two 3-0 defeats in their last five show how quickly that run can break.
- New England scored in 8 of 9 away matches between 2026-08-01 and 2026-10-14.
- They averaged 1.89 goals per away match across those nine games.
New England's most recent result was a 1-0 victory over Chicago Fire. It gives this fixture immediate context as Philadelphia face a side arriving from a shutout win. The supplied evidence establishes the scoreline but does not identify selection, tactical changes, or availability that would carry directly into this match.
- New England Revolution won 1-0 against Chicago Fire in their previous match.
- Philadelphia Union are New England's next opponent.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 20:58 · Europe/BucharestWV Newswww.wvnews.com · 23 Oct 2026
This MLS fixture is scheduled for a 7:30 p.m. EDT kickoff at Subaru Park in Chester. The venue identifies Philadelphia as the host and fixes the local evening setting for the match. No unusual weather, travel disruption, or venue condition is established in the available evidence.
- Philadelphia Union and New England Revolution are scheduled to play on Saturday.
- Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. EDT at Subaru Park in Chester, Pennsylvania.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 20:58 · Europe/BucharestWV Newswww.wvnews.com · 23 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Philadelphia Union

1.48fair 2.13

BetBugs 47% · Market 67.6%

−20.6ppshort

Philadelphia have been the better home team and have controlled the recent meetings staged in Chester.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.48
The read
Philadelphia have been the better home team and have controlled the recent meetings staged in Chester.
- Union home split: 5W-2D-1L, 2.5 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per home game
- League home record 7W-5D-3L with 27 goals for and 16 against
- Revolution away record 6W-2D-7L, 22 scored and 25 conceded in 15 away games
- Last two meetings in Philadelphia finished 1-0 and 5-1 to the Union
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPhiladelphia UnionEstimated chance47%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Philadelphia score in almost every home game and average well above the two-goal line at Subaru Park.
- Union average 2.5 goals per home game across 8 home matches
- Found the net in 7 of 8 home matches
- 27 goals in 15 league home games, 1.8 per game
- New England concede 1.56 goals per away game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostPhiladelphia Union over 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Both teams attack well and concede regularly, and Philadelphia's recent games have been consistently high-scoring.
- Union home games combine for 3.75 goals per match (2.5 for, 1.25 against)
- New England away games combine for 3.44 goals (1.89 for, 1.56 against)
- Both teams scored in 10 of 15 matches for each side
- Recent Union scorelines: 2-2, 3-1, 2-1, 4-2, 4-3, 5-0
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Neither defence has been reliable enough to expect a shutout, and both attacks find the net consistently.
- Philadelphia saw both teams score in 5 of 8 home matches
- New England saw both teams score in 7 of 9 away matches
- New England scored in 8 of 9 away matches, averaging 1.89 goals
- Philadelphia scored in 7 of 8 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Both teams score regularly before the break and Philadelphia in particular start home games on the front foot.
- Philadelphia home first halves: 1.13 goals scored, 0.25 conceded per game
- New England away first halves: 1.11 scored, 0.78 conceded per game
- Philadelphia scored in the first half of each of their last three home games
- New England scored a first-half goal in four of their last six matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Philadelphia's home games open up after the break and their second-half scoring rate is the strongest part of their game.
- Philadelphia home second halves: 1.38 scored, 1.0 conceded per game
- New England away second halves: 0.78 scored, 0.78 conceded per game
- At least two second-half goals in each of Philadelphia's last three home matches
- Union average 1.8 second-half goals overall
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
New England find a goal in nearly every away game, which makes a Philadelphia shutout the less likely outcome.
- New England scored in 8 of 9 away matches, averaging 1.89 goals
- Philadelphia kept only 2 clean sheets in 8 home matches
- Union conceded in 6 of 8 home games
- New England scored in 12 of 15 matches overall
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonNew England Revolution to scoreEstimated chance78%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.67
The read
New England generate a steady corner supply on the road and Philadelphia's home games still allow visitors set-piece chances.
- New England average 5.0 corners per away game
- Philadelphia concede 3.4 corners per home game
- New England took 5 or more corners in four of their last six matches
- New England away opponents average 6.4 corners, showing end-to-end away games
BetBugs · Away CornerswonNew England Revolution over 3.5Estimated chance70%

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 1W

L2-1New England RevolutionvPhiladelphia UnionMay 9, 2026MAJ

W1-0Philadelphia UnionvNew England RevolutionSep 20, 2025MAJ

W0-2New England RevolutionvPhiladelphia UnionMar 9, 2025MAJ

W5-1Philadelphia UnionvNew England RevolutionJul 17, 2024MAJ

W0-3New England RevolutionvPhiladelphia UnionMay 18, 2024MAJ

Philadelphia Union: 3 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Philadelphia Union Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	30	13	7	10	61-48	46	DWWWW
3	New England Revolution Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	30	16	4	10	49-41	52	WWLLW