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Predictions graded

New England Revolution4Orlando City2

HT 1–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 17–11On targetOn target 9–5CornersCorners 10–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 18:30 · Europe/Bucharest

New England's strong home form and Orlando's away struggles make the hosts likely to avoid defeat (78% chance), but the market offers no value on that outcome.

The only positive edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.91 (55% vs 52.4% implied). Avoid Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes, as the odds imply much higher probabilities than our model supports.

Context

New England Revolution sit third in the Eastern Conference with 43 points from 25 matches.
At home they have won 8, drawn 2, and lost 2, scoring 22 and conceding 11. That defensive solidity matters because Orlando have struggled on the road, winning only 3 of 12 away games and conceding 39 goals. New England's home record suggests they can control this match, but Orlando's recent away win at Atlanta shows they can still threaten.
- New England home record: 8 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in 12 matches.
- New England home goals: 22 for, 11 against.
- Orlando away record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses in 12 matches, with 39 goals conceded.
Orlando City are sixth in the Eastern Conference with 34 points, but their away form has been poor.
They have won only 3 away games, drawn 2, and lost 7, conceding 39 goals in 12 matches. That defensive weakness is a problem against a New England side that has scored 22 goals at home. However, Orlando's recent away win at Atlanta United (3-2 on September 9) shows they can score on the road, so this match may still be open.
- Orlando away record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses in 12 matches.
- Orlando away goals: 21 for, 39 against.
- Orlando won 3-2 at Atlanta United on September 9, 2026.
The teams have met five times since 2024, with Orlando winning three and one draw.
Orlando won the most recent meeting 4-3 at New England in the US Open Cup on April 29, 2026, and also won 2-1 at New England in MLS on July 19, 2025. Those results show Orlando can score in this stadium, but the earlier 3-3 draw in May 2025 and New England's 3-0 win in September 2024 suggest the matchup can swing either way.
- April 29, 2026: Orlando won 4-3 at New England (US Open Cup).
- July 19, 2025: Orlando won 2-1 at New England (MLS).
- May 10, 2025: 3-3 draw at Orlando (MLS).
Orlando City midfielder Joran Gerbet has started four of the last five available fixtures, totalling 289 minutes across five appearances.
Gerbet is listed out with a thigh issue, removing a regular starter from Orlando's midfield. His absence limits rotation options after the midweek cup match and forces a change in the central pairing.
- Orlando City's official report lists Joran Gerbet as out with a thigh issue.
- The report lists no questionable players and no suspension.
- Joran Gerbet started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 289 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 18:28 · Europe/BucharestOrlando City player status reportwww.orlandocitysc.com · 16 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

New England Revolution

1.82fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 55%

0.0ppshort

New England's strong home record and Orlando's poor away record give the hosts a clear edge, supported by the structural home/away signal.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

New England Revolution or Draw

1.28fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 78%

0.0ppshort

New England's strong home form and Orlando's away struggles make the home side not losing highly likely, despite recent H2H disadvantage.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.38fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high-scoring tendencies, especially Orlando's leaky away defense, making over 2.5 goals likely.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.40fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams consistently find the net, and recent head-to-head meetings support both teams scoring.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
New England's strong home form and Orlando's poor away record give the hosts a clear edge, supported by the structural home/away signal.
- New England home record: 8W-2D-2L, 22 goals for, 11 against in 12 matches
- Orlando away record: 3W-2D-7L, 21 goals for, 39 against in 12 matches
- New England overall points 43 vs Orlando 34, goal difference +10 vs -12
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNew England RevolutionEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
New England's strong home form and Orlando's away struggles make the home side not losing highly likely, despite recent H2H disadvantage.
- New England home record: 8W-2D-2L (83% unbeaten)
- Orlando away record: 3W-2D-7L (58% losses)
- H2H last 5: New England 0W-1D-4L, but all Orlando wins were close
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNew England Revolution or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have mixed first-half results, and a draw at half time is a plausible outcome given the stats.
- New England leading at half time in 40% of matches, trailing 40%
- Orlando leading at half time in 53% of matches, trailing 33%
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
New England's home strength could lead to a second-half breakthrough after a level first half, though this is a lower-probability exact outcome.
- New England home record: 8W-2D-2L
- Orlando away record: 3W-2D-7L
- New England often wins at home after a level first half
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/New England RevolutionEstimated chance18%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring tendencies, especially Orlando's leaky away defense, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- New England home average goals for 1.83, against 0.92
- Orlando away average goals for 1.75, against 3.25
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently find the net, and recent head-to-head meetings support both teams scoring.
- New England scored in 11 of 12 home matches
- Orlando scored in 10 of 12 away matches
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 of 5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first-half scoring rates, but the combined average suggests a reasonable chance of over 1.5 first-half goals.
- New England first half goals average 0.8, conceded 0.8
- Orlando first half goals average 0.9, conceded 0.5
- Combined first half goal average 1.7
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Orlando's defensive frailty away from home often shows in the second half, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- New England second half goals average 0.7, conceded 0.5
- Orlando second half goals average 1.2, conceded 1.0
- Orlando's away second half conceded average is high
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average suggests a coin-flip chance of over 9.5 corners.
- New England average corners 5.5, opponent corners 5.5
- Orlando average corners 4.8, opponent corners 5.0
- Combined average corners 10.3
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 5 shots on target each, making over 8.5 total shots on target a reasonable expectation.
- New England average shots on target 5.0, opponent 4.5
- Orlando average shots on target 5.1, opponent 4.9
- Combined average shots on target 9.5
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate disciplinary records, and the combined average suggests a slight lean toward over 3.5 cards.
- New England average yellow cards 1.7, opponent 1.5
- Orlando average yellow cards 2.1, opponent 1.9
- Combined average yellow cards 3.6
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Orlando's away form is poor and the odds do not compensate for the risk.

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 4W

L3-4New England RevolutionvOrlando City SCApr 29, 2026US

L1-2New England RevolutionvOrlando City SCJul 19, 2025MAJ

D3-3Orlando City SCvNew England RevolutionMay 10, 2025MAJ

L3-0Orlando City SCvNew England RevolutionSep 14, 2024MAJ

L1-3New England RevolutionvOrlando City SCJul 13, 2024MAJ

Orlando City unbeaten in 5 meetings4.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	New England Revolution Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	25	13	4	8	41-31	43	WWLWD
6	Orlando City Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	25	10	4	11	44-56	34	WWWDW