CF Montreal22 – 2New England Revolution2

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Despite New England's poor away form, their superior league position and dominant recent H2H record give them a slight edge, though Montreal's home resilience and New England's travel fatigue (Gil's All-Star game) lower confidence.

• New England won 2 of last 3 H2H meetings, both by 3-0.
• New England 3rd in East (29 pts), Montreal 13th (15 pts).
• New England away record: 1W-1D-4L, but Montreal home record: 3W-2D-3L.
• Montreal form: LLDDL in last 5; New England form: WDLWL.

BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNew England RevolutionEstimated chance40%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Both teams have low first-half win rates and frequently go into halftime level, making a draw the most likely first-half outcome.

• Montreal led at halftime in only 33% of matches; trailed in 27%.
• New England led at halftime in 27%; trailed in 40%.
• Last 5 H2H: 3 draws at halftime.
• Montreal's last 5: 3 draws at halftime.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

New England's superior fitness and quality may tell in the second half, especially if Gil is rested early, but Montreal's home advantage could keep it close.

• New England has a +7 goal difference overall, suggesting stronger second-half performances.
• Montreal has a -11 goal difference, often conceding late.
• New England won second half in 2 of last 3 H2H.
• Montreal lost second half in 3 of last 5 matches.

BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostNew England RevolutionEstimated chance40%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

A tight first half followed by a New England breakthrough is a plausible scenario given Montreal's tendency to fade and New England's second-half strength, but specific HT-FT combos are inherently low probability.

• Montreal drew at halftime in 3 of last 5; New England drew in 2 of last 5.
• New England won 2 of last 5 overall; Montreal lost 2 of last 5.
• H2H: 2 of last 5 had draw at HT and New England win at FT.

BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / New England RevolutionEstimated chance25%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second halves tend to be higher-scoring in this fixture, and New England's away matches often open up after halftime, though low confidence due to small sample.

• Montreal averages 0.9 second-half goals (1.6 total - 0.7 first half).
• New England averages 1.2 second-half goals (1.9 total - 0.7 first half).
• Last 3 H2H: all had at least 2 second-half goals.
• New England away: 5 of 6 matches had over 1.5 second-half goals.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Combined averages suggest around 10 corners, and Montreal's home games tend to produce more corners, but New England's low corner count away adds uncertainty.

• Montreal averages 5.6 corners per game; New England averages 3.9.
• Montreal home matches: average 10.4 total corners (5.6 for, 4.8 against).
• New England away matches: average 9.3 total corners (3.9 for, 5.4 against).
• Last H2H (April 2026): 9 total corners.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Historical matchups and Montreal's disciplinary record (2.7 yellows/game) point to a card-heavy game, especially with playoff intensity.

• Montreal averages 2.7 yellow cards per game; New England 1.9.
• Montreal home matches: average 4.6 total cards (2.7 for, 1.9 against).
• Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 had over 4.5 cards.
• Montreal's last 5: 4 of 5 had over 4.5 cards.